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Jacob A. Zwart Samantha K. Oliver William David Watkins Jeffrey M. Sadler Alison P. Appling Hayley R. Corson-Dosch Xiaowei Jia Vipin Kumar Jordan S. Read 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》2023,59(2):317-337
Deep learning (DL) models are increasingly used to make accurate hindcasts of management-relevant variables, but they are less commonly used in forecasting applications. Data assimilation (DA) can be used for forecasts to leverage real-time observations, where the difference between model predictions and observations today is used to adjust the model to make better predictions tomorrow. In this use case, we developed a process-guided DL and DA approach to make 7-day probabilistic forecasts of daily maximum water temperature in the Delaware River Basin in support of water management decisions. Our modeling system produced forecasts of daily maximum water temperature with an average root mean squared error (RMSE) from 1.1 to 1.4°C for 1-day-ahead and 1.4 to 1.9°C for 7-day-ahead forecasts across all sites. The DA algorithm marginally improved forecast performance when compared with forecasts produced using the process-guided DL model alone (0%–14% lower RMSE with the DA algorithm). Across all sites and lead times, 65%–82% of observations were within 90% forecast confidence intervals, which allowed managers to anticipate probability of exceedances of ecologically relevant thresholds and aid in decisions about releasing reservoir water downstream. The flexibility of DL models shows promise for forecasting other important environmental variables and aid in decision-making. 相似文献
3.
Samson G. Mengistu Heather E. Golden Charles R. Lane Jay R. Christensen Michael L. Wine Ellen D’Amico Amy Prues Scott G. Leibowitz Jana E. Compton Marc H. Weber Ryan A. Hill 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》2023,59(5):1162-1179
Eutrophication, harmful algal blooms, and human health impacts are critical environmental challenges resulting from excess nitrogen and phosphorus in surface waters. Yet we have limited information regarding how wetland characteristics mediate water quality across watershed scales. We developed a large, novel set of spatial variables characterizing hydrological flowpaths from wetlands to streams, that is, “wetland hydrological transport variables,” to explore how wetlands statistically explain the variability in total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) concentrations across the Upper Mississippi River Basin (UMRB) in the United States. We found that wetland flowpath variables improved landscape-to-aquatic nutrient multilinear regression models (from R2 = 0.89 to 0.91 for TN; R2 = 0.53 to 0.84 for TP) and provided insights into potential processes governing how wetlands influence watershed-scale TN and TP concentrations. Specifically, flowpath variables describing flow-attenuating environments, for example, subsurface transport compared to overland flowpaths, were related to lower TN and TP concentrations. Frequent hydrological connections from wetlands to streams were also linked to low TP concentrations, which likely suggests a nutrient source limitation in some areas of the UMRB. Consideration of wetland flowpaths could inform management and conservation activities designed to reduce nutrient export to downstream waters. 相似文献
4.
Holly R. Yaryan Hall Brian P. Bledsoe 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》2023,59(4):681-700
Natural channel design (NCD) and analytical channel design (ACD) are two competing approaches to stable channel design that share fundamental similarities in accounting for sediment transport processes with designs based on hybrid fluvial geomorphology and hydraulic engineering methods. In this paper, we highlight the linkage between ACD's capacity/supply ratio (CSR) and NCD's sediment capacity models (FLOWSED/POWERSED), illustrating how ACD and NCD have reached a point of convergent evolution within the stream restoration toolbox. We modified an existing CSR analytical spreadsheet tool which enabled us to predict relative channel stability using both conventional bed load transport equations and regional sediment regression curves. The stable channel design solutions based on measured data most closely matched the Parker (ACD) and/or Pagosa good/fair (NCD) relationships, which also showed the greatest CSR sensitivity in response to channel alterations. We found that CSR differences among the transport relationships became more extreme the further the design width deviated from the supply reach, suggesting that a stable upstream supply reach may serve as the best design analog. With this paper, we take a step toward resolving lingering controversy in the field of stream restoration, advancing the science and practice by reconciling key differences between ACD and NCD in the context of reach scale morphodynamics. 相似文献
5.
Jared D. Margulies Francesca R. Moorman Bárbara Goettsch Jan C. Axmacher Amy Hinsley 《Conservation biology》2023,37(3):e14030
Although illegal wildlife trade (IWT) represents a serious threat to biodiversity, research into the prevalence of illegal plant collection and trade remains scarce. Because cacti and succulents are heavily threatened by overcollection for often illegal, international ornamental trade, we surveyed 441 members of the cacti and succulent hobbyist collector community with a mixed quantitative and qualitative approach. We sought to understand collector perspectives on the Convention on the International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Flora and Fauna (CITES) and on the threats IWT poses to cactus and succulent conservation. Most respondents (74% of 401 respondents) stated that illegal collection in cacti and succulents represents a “very serious problem” and that the problem of wild plant collection is increasing (72% of 319 respondents). Most forms of illegal collection and trade were seen as very unacceptable by respondents. Self-reported noncompliance with CITES rules was uncommon (11.2% of 418 respondents); it remains a persistent problem in parts of the cacti and succulent hobbyist community. People engaging in rule breaking, such as transporting plants without required CITES documents, generally did so knowingly. Although 60.6% of 381 respondents regarded CITES as a very important tool for conservation, sentiment toward CITES and its efficacy in helping species conservation was mixed. Collectors in our survey saw themselves as potentially playing important roles in cactus and succulent conservation, but this potential resource remains largely untapped. Our results suggest the need for enhanced consultation with stakeholders in CITES decision-making. For challenging subjects like IWT, developing evidence-based responses demands deep interdisciplinary engagement, including assessing the conservation impact of species listings on CITES appendices. 相似文献
6.
Conservation decisions are invariably made with incomplete data on species’ distributions, habitats, and threats, but frameworks for allocating conservation investments rarely account for missing data. We examined how explicit consideration of missing data can boost return on investment in ecosystem restoration, focusing on the challenge of restoring aquatic ecosystem connectivity by removing dams and road crossings from rivers. A novel way of integrating the presence of unmapped barriers into a barrier optimization model was developed and applied to the U.S. state of Maine to maximize expected habitat gain for migratory fish. Failing to account for unmapped barriers during prioritization led to nearly 50% lower habitat gain than was anticipated using a conventional barrier optimization approach. Explicitly acknowledging that data are incomplete during project selection, however, boosted expected habitat gains by 20–273% on average, depending on the true number of unmapped barriers. Importantly, these gains occurred without additional data. Simply acknowledging that some barriers were unmapped, regardless of their precise number and location, improved conservation outcomes. Given incomplete data on ecosystems worldwide, our results demonstrate the value of accounting for data shortcomings during project selection. 相似文献
7.
Russian Journal of Ecology - In this paper, Ellenberg’s indicator values were estimated in order to soil nitrogen (N), pH (R) and soil moisture (M) in different subalpine grassland... 相似文献
8.
Carl Folke Stephen Polasky Johan Rockstrm Victor Galaz Frances Westley Michle Lamont Marten Scheffer Henrik
sterblom Stephen R. Carpenter F. Stuart Chapin III Karen C. Seto Elke U. Weber Beatrice I. Crona Gretchen C. Daily Partha Dasgupta Owen Gaffney Line J. Gordon Holger Hoff Simon A. Levin Jane Lubchenco Will Steffen Brian H. Walker 《Ambio》2021,50(4):834
The COVID-19 pandemic has exposed an interconnected and tightly coupled globalized world in rapid change. This article sets the scientific stage for understanding and responding to such change for global sustainability and resilient societies. We provide a systemic overview of the current situation where people and nature are dynamically intertwined and embedded in the biosphere, placing shocks and extreme events as part of this dynamic; humanity has become the major force in shaping the future of the Earth system as a whole; and the scale and pace of the human dimension have caused climate change, rapid loss of biodiversity, growing inequalities, and loss of resilience to deal with uncertainty and surprise. Taken together, human actions are challenging the biosphere foundation for a prosperous development of civilizations. The Anthropocene reality—of rising system-wide turbulence—calls for transformative change towards sustainable futures. Emerging technologies, social innovations, broader shifts in cultural repertoires, as well as a diverse portfolio of active stewardship of human actions in support of a resilient biosphere are highlighted as essential parts of such transformations. 相似文献
9.
El Rasafi Taoufik Pereira Ruth Pinto Glória Gonçalves Fernando J. M. Haddioui Abdelmajid Ksibi Mohamed Römbke Jörg Sousa José Paulo Marques Catarina R. 《Environmental science and pollution research international》2021,28(13):15782-15793
Environmental Science and Pollution Research - The contamination left by abandoned mines demands sustainable mitigation measures. Hence, the aim of this study was to examine the phytoremediator... 相似文献
10.
Suneel V. Sathish Kumar S. Balaji R. Vethamony P. 《Environmental science and pollution research international》2021,28(14):17181-17199
Environmental Science and Pollution Research - Formation of oil-suspended sediment aggregates (OSAs) is believed to be one of the natural cleaning processes in the marine environment. In this... 相似文献