Cognitive and institutional influences on farmers’ adaptive capacity: insights into barriers and opportunities for transformative change in central Arizona

The prospect of unprecedented environmental change, combined with increasing demand on limited resources, demands adaptive responses at multiple levels. In this article, we analyze different attributes of farm-level capacity in central Arizona, USA, in relation to farmers’ responses to recent dynamism in commodity and land markets, and the institutional and social contexts of farmers’ water and production portfolios. Irrigated agriculture is at the heart of the history and identity of the American Southwest, although the future of agriculture is now threatened by the prospect of “mega-droughts,” urbanization and associated inter-sector and inter-state competition over water in an era of climatic change. We use farm-level survey data, supplemented by in-depth interviews, to explore the cross-level dimensions of capacity in the agriculture–urban nexus of central Arizona. The surveyed farmers demonstrate an interest in learning, capacity for adaptive management and risk-taking attitudes consistent with emerging theory of capacity for land use and livelihood transformation. However, many respondents perceive their self-efficacy in the face of future climatic and hydrological change as uncertain. Our study suggests that the components of transformational capacity will necessarily need to go beyond the objective resources and cognitive capacities of individuals to incorporate “linking” capacities: the political and social attributes necessary for collective strategy formation to shape choice and opportunity in the future.     

Impact of closed-loop network configurations on carbon footprints: A case study in copiers

Growing concerns about the environment make a supply chains’ eco-footprint increasingly important, presuming that footprints are a more effective (policy) instrument than those currently in use. The eco-footprint comprises all kinds of environmental impact, but often is narrowed down to one aspect; e.g. the carbon footprint, material footprint, the water footprint, and so on. Although returns give rise to an additional goods flow from customers back to producers, it usually improves the eco-footprint due to the substitution effect. The reverse channel supplies high quality (recovered) products, components and materials to the forward channel thereby reducing the need for virgin sourcing and production. We refer to this as closed-loop recovery, as opposed to recovery for cascade markets which lacks substitution. To maximize substitution, the recovered items must re-enter the original supply chain. The feasibility of closed-loop recovery depends partly on the geographical proximity of forward and reverse facilities. We develop a decision framework for optimizing closed loop network configurations, i.e. the combined disposition and location–transport decision. We apply the framework to a single case study concerning one type of footprint (namely the carbon footprint) of a copier (closed-loop) supply chain. The main implication is that a regional network, with combined forward and reverse facilities per continent, proves most efficient and most robust in view of uncertain exogenous variables, but only when a full set of closed-loop options is available (including closed-loop recycling). As an embedded case, main contribution value of it lies in the discovery of a new phenomenon with generic implications; namely that not only the closed-loop supply chains footprint strongly depends on the substitution effect, but that in turn the feasibility of closed-loop recovery options depends heavily on the network design. From delineations of the study we derive issues for further research.     

An Air Pollution Incident Due to a Stationary Front

In January 1971, the New York City area experienced a period of high pollution in which concentrations exceeded the present criteria for Stage I of the New York City Alert-Warning System. The incident was unusual because the high concentrations were associated with a weak frontal system which moved back and forth over the area and not with a stagnating anticyclone. Concentrations of pollutants were found to be closely related to the movement of the frontal system as well as to changes in wind speed and stability. Climatological criteria for identifying-periods of potential high air pollution and the criteria for mixing heights, transport wind speed and ventilation factors necessary for the issuance of an official advisory from the National Meteorological Center were not met during this incident. Therefore, some re-evaluation and redefinition of these criteria are recommended.     

Assessment and significance of phytoplankton species composition within Chesapeake Bay and Virginia tributaries through a long-term monitoring program

Phytoplankton and water quality long term trends are presented from a 20-year monitoring program of Chesapeake Bay and several of its major tributaries. Increasing phytoplankton biomass and abundance are ongoing within this estuarine complex, with diatoms the dominant component, along with chlorophytes and cyanobacteria as sub-dominant contributors in the tidal freshwater and oligohaline regions. Diatoms, dinoflagellates, and cryptomonads are among the major flora downstream in the tributaries and within the Chesapeake Bay. Water quality conditions within the three tributaries have remained rather stable over this time period; while there are long term trends of reduced nutrients, increasing bottom oxygen, and decreasing water clarity for the lower Chesapeake Bay. Of note is an increasing trend of cyanobacteria biomass at 12 of the 13 stations monitored at tributary and Chesapeake Bay stations, plus the presence of 37 potentially harmful taxa reported for these waters. However, the overall status of the phytoplankton populations is presently favorable, in that it is mainly represented and dominated by taxa suitable as a major food and oxygen source within this ecosystem. Although potentially harmful taxa are present, they have not at this time exerted profound impact to the region, or replaced the diatom populations in overall dominance.     

A survey of antennal responses by five species of coniferophagous bark beetles (Coleoptera: Scolytidae) to bark volatiles of six species of angiosperm trees

Summary. Using Porapak Q traps, we collected the bark volatiles of six angiosperm trees native to British Columbia: black cottonwood, Populus trichocarpa Torr. & A. Gray (Salicaceae), trembling aspen, P. tremuloides Michx. (Salicaceae), paper birch, Betula papyrifera Marsh. (Betulaceae), bigleaf maple, Acer macrophyllum Pursh (Aceraceae), red alder, Alnus rubra Bong. (Betulaceae), and Sitka alder, A. viridis ssp. sinuata (Regel) á. L?ve & D. L?ve (Betulaceae). Utilising coupled gas chromatographic-electroantennographic detection analysis, the captured volatiles were assayed for antennal responses in five species of coniferophagous bark beetles (Coleoptera: Scolytidae), sympatric with most or all of the angiosperm trees: the Douglas-fir beetle, Dendroctonus pseudotsugae Hopkins, the mountain pine beetle, D. ponderosae Hopkins, the spruce beetle, D. rufipennis (Kirby), the western balsam bark beetle, Dryocoetes confusus Swaine, and the pine engraver, Ips pini (Say). The identities of 25 antennally-active compounds were determined by coupled gas chromatographic-mass spectroscopic analysis, and co-chromatographic comparisons with authentic chemicals. The compounds identified were: hexanal, (E)-2-hexenal, (Z)-3-hexen-1-ol, 1-hexanol, heptanal, α-pinene, frontalin, benzaldehyde, β-pinene, 2-hydroxycyclohexanone, 3-carene, limonene, β-phellandrene, benzyl alcohol, (E)-ocimene, salicylaldehyde, conophthorin, guaiacol, nonanal, methyl salicylate, 4-allylanisole, decanal, thymol methyl ether, (E)-nerolidol, and dendrolasin. A number of these compounds are known semiochemicals that are active in the behaviour of other organisms, including bark beetles, suggesting a high degree of semiochemical parsimony. Antennally-active compounds ranged from seven in A. viridis to 17 in P. trichocarpa. The fewest number of compounds (9) were detected by I. pini and the largest number (24) were detected by D. pseudotsugae. Six compounds excited the antennae of all five species of bark beetles. The large number of antennally-active compounds detected in common by numerous bark beetles and present in common in numerous nonhost trees supports the hypothesis of olfaction-based recognition and avoidance of nonhost angiosperm trees during the process of host selection by coniferophagous bark beetles. Received 13 December 1999; accepted 14 March 2000     

The optimum population and an affluent society

The population optimum is formulated such that income-related shifts are permitted in rates of substitution between arguments in the welfare function. Under plausible assumptions, when income, the number of people, open space, leisure, and pollution are explicitly included in the welfare function, and even though the income elasticity of added children is positive, families will tend to have fewer children as incomes rise, while enjoying more open space and reduced levels of pollution. A shift toward leisure tends to have the partial effect of increasing the optimum. The model predicts that consumption will become increasingly extra-market as incomes rise.     

A General Stochastic Model for the Prediction of Biodiversity Losses Based on Habitat Conversion

We present a model of species extinction rates that depends on the distribution of species and rates of habitat conversion. This model allows prediction of numbers of species lost as well as current extinction rates. We apply the model to plant species in the Neotropics. We examined distribution data for 51 angiosperm taxa, comprising 4258 species from Flora Neotropica monographs. Of these, 25.7% had been recorded as occurring in a single locality, with 12.8% and 9.5% being recorded from two or three localities respectively. Assuming that 18.7% of Neotropical forested area has been cleared since 1950, when 60,000 plant species existed, the model predicts that 3020 species will have been lost by 1992. At current deforestation rates, the entire Neotropics loses between 71 and 95 plant species per year. We also apply the model to individual Neotropical countries and find annual rates of within-country extinctions ranging from 0 per year in Belize to 63 per year in Ecuador. We suggest a means by which the model may be tested in the field.