Assessing the double dividend of a third-generation environmental tax reform with resource substitution

Environment, Development and Sustainability - Taxes often face public opposition, which hinders their implementation since people envision them as costs without a return. Taxes on emissions are one...     

Development of visibility forecasting modeling framework for the Lower Fraser Valley of British Columbia using Canada’s Regional Air Quality Deterministic Prediction System

Visibility degradation, one of the most noticeable indicators of poor air quality, can occur despite relatively low levels of particulate matter when the risk to human health is low. The availability of timely and reliable visibility forecasts can provide a more comprehensive understanding of the anticipated air quality conditions to better inform local jurisdictions and the public. This paper describes the development of a visibility forecasting modeling framework, which leverages the existing air quality and meteorological forecasts from Canada’s operational Regional Air Quality Deterministic Prediction System (RAQDPS) for the Lower Fraser Valley of British Columbia. A baseline model (GM-IMPROVE) was constructed using the revised IMPROVE algorithm based on unprocessed forecasts from the RAQDPS. Three additional prototypes (UMOS-HYB, GM-MLR, GM-RF) were also developed and assessed for forecast performance of up to 48 hr lead time during various air quality and meteorological conditions. Forecast performance was assessed by examining their ability to provide both numerical and categorical forecasts in the form of 1-hr total extinction and Visual Air Quality Ratings (VAQR), respectively. While GM-IMPROVE generally overestimated extinction more than twofold, it had skill in forecasting the relative species contribution to visibility impairment, including ammonium sulfate and ammonium nitrate. Both statistical prototypes, GM-MLR and GM-RF, performed well in forecasting 1-hr extinction during daylight hours, with correlation coefficients (R) ranging from 0.59 to 0.77. UMOS-HYB, a prototype based on postprocessed air quality forecasts without additional statistical modeling, provided reasonable forecasts during most daylight hours. In terms of categorical forecasts, the best prototype was approximately 75 to 87% correct, when forecasting for a condensed three-category VAQR. A case study, focusing on a poor visual air quality yet low Air Quality Health Index episode, illustrated that the statistical prototypes were able to provide timely and skillful visibility forecasts with lead time up to 48 hr.

Implications: This study describes the development of a visibility forecasting modeling framework, which leverages the existing air quality and meteorological forecasts from Canada’s operational Regional Air Quality Deterministic Prediction System. The main applications include tourism and recreation planning, input into air quality management programs, and educational outreach. Visibility forecasts, when supplemented with the existing air quality and health based forecasts, can assist jurisdictions to anticipate the visual air quality impacts as perceived by the public, which can potentially assist in formulating the appropriate air quality bulletins and recommendations.     

Contamination of soil and the medicinal plant <Emphasis Type="Italic">Phyllanthus niruri</Emphasis> Linn. with cadmium in ceramic industrial areas

Phyllanthus niruri is a plant that is used to prevent calcium oxalate crystallisation and to block the stone formation in urolithiasis. Contaminants in the environment can be readily taken up by medicinal plants due to their ability to absorb chemicals into their tissues. If contaminated plants are ingested, they have the potential to negatively affect human and environmental health. The aim of this study was to assess contamination in the soil and the medicinal plant P. niruri by cadmium (Cd) in ceramic industrial areas of Monte Carmelo, Brazil. Soil samples and plant samples (divided in root, shoot and leaves) were collected from a contaminated monitoring site and from a rural area (which was used as a reference site for comparative purposes). The Cd concentrations of the samples were analysed with an atomic absorption spectrometer. P. niruri was found to be sensitive to soil contamination by Cd that was attributed to ceramic industrial emissions. The results revealed that Cd bioaccumulation in the roots and shoots of P. niruri was associated with a significant increase (p?<?0.05) in the concentration of active lignan compounds (phyllanthin and hypophyllanthin) in the leaves. The identification of high concentrations of Cd and active lignan compounds suggests a risk of contamination of the site and the risk of a high dose of Cd to people exposed at the site.     

Life cycle assessment tool of electricity generation in Portugal

This paper investigates multi-stakeholder arrangements initiated by businesses and NGOs from the North that aim to enhance a more sustainable agricultural production at specific localities in Southern countries. We aim to better understand the search for concerted action in multi-actor arrangements. Therefore, this paper presents a diagnostic framework with three strategic challenges the partnership projects are facing: linking global economic objectives to local needs, values and interests; bridging public and private interests and responsibilities; and seeking trade-offs between social, environmental and economic values. Starting from the partnerships’ Theory of Change, this diagnostic framework is applied to comparative case studies of partnership projects in the cocoa sector in Indonesia, which are part of a Northern-based public–private partnership to improve farmers’ prospective. It is concluded that the economic reality faced by the farmers differs from that of the Northern actors; collaboration with governments is difficult because of different organizational cultures; and the partnership projects underestimate the strength of vested social relations the smallholders are part of. Overall, the initiators of the partnerships seem to work with a too restricted economic interpretation of the local reality.     

Development and validation of LC-MS/MS method for the determination of Ochratoxin A and its metabolite Ochratoxin α in poultry tissues and eggs

The objective of this study was to develop a liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS) method for the determination of Ochratoxin A (OTA) and Ochratoxin α (OTα) in poultry tissues and eggs. The two toxins were extracted by a mixture of acetonitrile/water, purified with a reversed phase C18 solid phase extraction column (SPE) and determined by LC-MS/MS. The LC-MS/MS method performances were evaluated in terms of linearity in solvent and in matrix (ranged from 0.5 to 15.10 µg L^?1 for OTA and from 0.60 to 17.85 µg L^?1 for OTα), limit of detection (LOD), limit of quantitation (LOQ), specificity, accuracy and precision in repeatability conditions. Recovery experiments were performed by spiking poultry liver, kidney, muscle and eggs around 1 µg kg^?1 and 10 µg kg^?1. LODs were 0.27 and 0.26 µg kg^?1 while LOQs were fixed at 1.0 and 1.2 µg kg^?1 for OTA and OTα, respectively. Main recoveries for OTA ranged from 82 to 109% and for OTα ranged from 55 to 89%. The values of within-laboratory relative standard deviation (RSD_r) were equal to or below 20%. Considering the results obtained and that all analytical performance criteria were fulfilled, the new extraction and purification method developed for OTA and OTα determination in animal tissues and eggs was found appropriate for control laboratories and research activities designed to ensure food safety.     

Evaluation of give kids a boost: A school-based program to increase booster seat use among urban children in economically disadvantaged areas

Objective: This study evaluated the effectiveness of a series of 1-year multifaceted school-based programs aimed at increasing booster seat use among urban children 4–7 years of age in economically disadvantaged areas.

Methods: During 4 consecutive school years, 2011–2015, the Give Kids a Boost (GKB) program was implemented in a total of 8 schools with similar demographics in Dallas County. Observational surveys were conducted at project schools before project implementation (P₀), 1–4 weeks after the completion of project implementation (P₁), and 4–5 months later (P₂). Changes in booster seat use for the 3 time periods were compared for the 8 project and 14 comparison schools that received no intervention using a nonrandomized trial process.

The intervention included (1) train-the-trainer sessions with teachers and parents; (2) presentations about booster seat safety; (3) tailored communication to parents; (4) distribution of fact sheets/resources; (5) walk-around education; and (6) booster seat inspections.

The association between the GKB intervention and proper booster seat use was determined initially using univariate analysis. The association was also estimated using a generalized linear mixed model predicting a binomial outcome (booster seat use) for those aged 4 to 7 years, adjusted for child-level variables (age, sex, race/ethnicity) and car-level variables (vehicle type). The model incorporated the effects of clustering by site and by collection date to account for the possibility of repeated sampling.

Results: In the 8 project schools, booster seat use for children 4–7 years of age increased an average of 20.9 percentage points between P₀ and P₁ (P₀ = 4.8%, P₁ = 25.7%; odds ratio [OR] = 6.9; 95% confidence interval [CI], 5.5, 8.7; P < .001) and remained at that level in the P₂ time period (P₂ = 25.7%; P < .001, for P₀ vs. P₂) in the univariate analysis. The 14 comparison schools had minimal change in booster seat use. The multivariable model showed that children at the project schools were significantly more likely to be properly restrained in a booster seat after the intervention (OR = 2.7; 95% CI, 2.2, 3.3) compared to the P₀ time period and compared to the comparison schools.

Conclusion: Despite study limitations, the GKB program was positively associated with an increase in proper booster seat use for children 4–7 years of age in school settings among diverse populations in economically disadvantaged areas. These increases persisted into the following school year in a majority of the project schools. The GKB model may be a replicable strategy to increase booster seat use among school-age children in similar urban settings.     

Pollutant versus non-pollutant generation technologies: a CML-analogous analysis

In this work, we apply the Modern Portfolio Theory and the Capital Assets Pricing Model financial tools to a portfolio of CO₂-emitting generation technologies under diverse scenarios. We will calculate the efficient—in the sense of having the minimum risk for a given level of emissions—portfolios frontier. The Capital Market Line (CML) is the place where all the possible combinations of a specific efficient portfolio and a pollution-free portfolio—made up with nuclear and renewable generation technologies—lie. In Finance, that specific efficient portfolio is called the market portfolio but we will see that in our case it lacks an evident meaning. Therefore, we will explain which should be the reference portfolio for power generation planning analysis. Anyway, the fact is that those combinations are less pollutant than the portfolios in the efficient frontier. Thus, a policy-maker can analyse which is their effect on emissions reduction. We will start analysing the efficient pollutant generation portfolios. Then, we will introduce the CML-analogous lines (CML-A) to allow the possibility of reducing emissions by combining an efficient portfolio with a non-pollutant portfolio—this non-pollutant portfolio is free of both emissions and risk. Results support the necessity of considering the carbon capture and storage technology to achieve a less risky generation mix, with less emissions and allowing a higher diversification due to the presence of cleaner fossil fuel technologies. All of that leads to better levels of energy security.     

A climate-change vulnerability and adaptation assessment for Brazil's protected areas

Brazil hosts the largest expanse of tropical ecosystems within protected areas (PAs), which shelter biodiversity and support traditional human populations. We assessed the vulnerability to climate change of 993 terrestrial and coastal-marine Brazilian PAs by combining indicators of climatic-change hazard with indicators of PA resilience (size, native vegetation cover, and probability of climate-driven vegetation transition). This combination of indicators allows the identification of broad climate-change adaptation pathways. Seventeen PAs (20,611 km²) were highly vulnerable and located mainly in the Atlantic Forest (7 PAs), Cerrado (6), and the Amazon (4). Two hundred fifty-eight PAs (756,569 km²), located primarily in Amazonia, had a medium vulnerability. In the Amazon and western Cerrado, the projected severe climatic change and probability of climate-driven vegetation transition drove vulnerability up, despite the generally good conservation status of PAs. Over 80% of PAs of high or moderate vulnerability are managed by indigenous populations. Hence, besides the potential risks to biodiversity, the traditional knowledge and livelihoods of the people inhabiting these PAs may be threatened. In at least 870 PAs, primarily in the Atlantic Forest and Amazon, adaptation could happen with little or no intervention due to low climate-change hazard, high resilience status, or both. At least 20 PAs in the Atlantic Forest, Cerrado, and Amazonia should be targeted for stronger interventions (e.g., improvement of ecological connectivity), given their low resilience status. Despite being a first attempt to link vulnerability and adaptation in Brazilian PAs, we suggest that some of the PAs identified as highly or moderately vulnerable should be prioritized for testing potential adaptation strategies in the near future.     

Influence of community-based natural resource management strategies in the resilience of social-ecological systems

Different social-ecological systems around the world are managed under community-based natural resource management (CBNRM) strategies. This paper analyses how CBNRM strategies influence the resilience of social-ecological systems to the disturbances they face, drawing upon the experience of three Latin American cases (two in Mexico and one in Colombia). The cases differ in their CBNRM approach and in the time these governance systems have been in place. By using a mixed-method approach, we review the socio-ecological history and describe each CBNRM characteristics. We then assess their resilience to socioeconomic and environmental disturbances through a set of indicators. We found that CBNRM strategies influence positively and negatively resilience and that internal decisions might address important threats. On the positive side, the social-ecological systems with longer tradition of CBNRM and more local buy-in of commonly agreed objectives appear to be more resilient to environmental challenges. But, internal governance factors such as power imbalances, poor income distribution, and gender inequities linked to CBNRM undermine resilience and foster out migration. Finally, communities appear to have limited capacities to cope with external disturbances such as global drivers of change or national policies that negatively affect their social-ecological resilience.