A Critique of Estimating Future Costs Using Most Likely Value

ASTM E2137 (Standard Guide for Estimating Monetary Costs and Liability for Environmental Matters, or E2137) is the guidance for developing estimates of future environmental costs. E2137 provides a hierarchy of cost estimation approaches, and expresses an explicit preference for the use of probabilistic cost analysis to develop expected values for environmental costs. Dr. Ram and his colleagues have published an article (Remediation Journal, Autumn 2013) which rejects the use of EV analysis, arguing that while “good in principle” it has little practical value because it is nearly impossible to develop supportable probabilities. The E2137 principles and processes have been used for more than a decade in the context of addressing future environmental costs, yet their view of E2137 renders the standard meaningless. We conclude that the deficiency is not in the ASTM standard, and that when properly constructed, probabilistic analyses can be used to develop expected values with supportable probabilities. ©2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Ambient Air Quality Monitoring Network Design for Assessing Human Health Impacts from Exposures to Airborne Contaminants

Existing methods of establishing ambientair quality monitoring networks typically evaluateonly parameters related to ambient concentrations ofthe contaminant(s) of interest such as emissionsource characteristics, atmospheric transport anddispersion, secondary reactions, depositioncharacteristics, and local topography. However,adverse health risks from exposures to airbornecontaminants are a function of the contaminant andthe anatomic and physiologic characteristics of theexposed population. Thus, ambient air qualitymonitoring networks designed for the protection ofpublic health or for epidemiological studiesevaluating adverse health impacts from exposures toambient air contaminants should account for bothcontaminant characteristics and human healthparameters. A methodology has been establishedwhich optimizes ambient air quality monitoringnetworks for assessments of adverse human healthimpacts from exposures to airborne contaminants byincorporating human health risk assessmenttechniques. The use of risk assessment techniquesas the basis for designing ambient air qualitymonitoring networks will help to target limitedfinancial and human resources to evaluate humanhealth risks from exposures to airbornecontaminants.     

Community-based Environmental Planning: Operational Dilemmas,Planning Principles and Possible Remedies

The operational dilemmas and challenges associated with the practice of community-based environmental planning (CBEP) are examined. The paper examines the frequently invoked ‘bottom-up’ versus ‘top-down’ dichotomy and argues that environmental governance is more complex, dynamic and multi-scalar than this simple dichotomy implies. The paper identifies six key problems with the CBEP approach: (i) the conceptualization of ‘community’ which poorly accounts for difference; (ii) problems of inequality; (iii) the organizational capacity and efficacy of community groups; (iv) the scale of CBEP; (v) the types of knowledge utilized by communities in environmental management; and (vi) the potential for parochial concerns to dominate the priorities and agenda of community organizations. The paper analyses each of these issues, identifies planning principles that may aid resolution, and suggests possible remedies.     

Boosted Regression Tree Models to Explain Watershed Nutrient Concentrations and Biological Condition

Boosted regression tree (BRT) models were developed to quantify the nonlinear relationships between landscape variables and nutrient concentrations in a mesoscale mixed land cover watershed during base‐flow conditions. Factors that affect instream biological components, based on the Index of Biotic Integrity (IBI), were also analyzed. Seasonal BRT models at two spatial scales (watershed and riparian buffered area [RBA]) for nitrite‐nitrate (NO₂‐NO₃), total Kjeldahl nitrogen, and total phosphorus (TP) and annual models for the IBI score were developed. Two primary factors — location within the watershed (i.e., geographic position, stream order, and distance to a downstream confluence) and percentage of urban land cover (both scales) — emerged as important predictor variables. Latitude and longitude interacted with other factors to explain the variability in summer NO₂‐NO₃ concentrations and IBI scores. BRT results also suggested that location might be associated with indicators of sources (e.g., land cover), runoff potential (e.g., soil and topographic factors), and processes not easily represented by spatial data indicators. Runoff indicators (e.g., Hydrological Soil Group D and Topographic Wetness Indices) explained a substantial portion of the variability in nutrient concentrations as did point sources for TP in the summer months. The results from our BRT approach can help prioritize areas for nutrient management in mixed‐use and heavily impacted watersheds.     

The effect of changes in land use on nitrate concentration in water supply wells in southern Chester County, Pennsylvania

An analysis of private potable water well data was conducted for seven single family residential developments in southern Chester County, Pennsylvania. Background data were available for 165 wells within the communities when the wells were first drilled in the 1980s and early 1990s. Sampling of 75 wells within these same communities was performed in 2006 to determine whether conversion of the land to residential housing along with the use of conventional on-lot septic systems had resulted in elevated concentration of nitrate-nitrogen in the drinking water aquifer. The data indicate that prior land use influenced the occurrence of nitrate-nitrogen in the drinking water aquifer. The median nitrate-nitrogen concentration for the 165 wells in the background dataset was 2.9 mg/L. One hundred-seven of those wells were drilled on land previously used for active agricultural purposes. The median nitrate concentration in these wells was 3.8 mg/L. Of 48 wells drilled on forested land, the median nitrate concentration was 1.1 mg/L, approximately 3.5 times lower than those drilled on active agricultural land. The median nitrate concentration in the 2006 sampling dataset was 3.6 mg/L, an increase of 0.7 mg/L. The data indicate that conversion of the land has not resulted in contamination of the drinking water aquifer with respect to nitrate-nitrogen. Likewise, the data suggest that the conversion has not resulted in significant improvements to overall water quality.     

DETERMINING SIGNIFICANCE AND PRECISION OF ESTIMATED PARAMETERS FOR RUNOFF FROM SEMIARID WATERSHEDS1

ABSTRACT Significant parameters for predicting thunderstorm runoff from small semiarid watersheds are determined using data from the Walnut Gulch watershed in southern Arizona. Based on these data, thunderstorm rainfall is dominant over watershed parameters for predicting runoff from multiple linear regression equations. In some cases antecedent moisture added significantly to the models. A technique is developed for estimating precision of predicted values from multiple linear regression equations. The technique involves matrix methods in estimating the variance of mean predicted values from a regression equation. The estimated variance of the mean predicted value is then used to estimate the variance of an individual predicted value. A computer program is developed to implement these matrix methods and to form confidence limits on predicted values based on both a normality assumption and the Chebyshev inequality.     

GEOMORPHIC PARAMETERS PREDICT HYDROGRAPH CHARACTERISTICS IN THE SOUTHWEST1

ABSTRACT: Critical design characteristics of ephermal runoff such as hydrograph rise time, duration, mean peak discharge, volume, peak-volume ratio, and maximum flood were related to physical basin parameters such as area, shape, slope, drainage density, basin relief, stream length, and combinations of these in intermontane watersheds representative of the Mexican Highland section of the Basin and Range Province. Parameters used were restricted to those easily obtainable from maps or aerial photographs. A parameter expressing basin shape and size was developed which proved to be as accurate a predictor as others used in existing prediction equations tested and was simpler and faster to derive. Simple prediction equations derived for hydrograph characteristics were all significant except for volume at the 5% level; three were significant at the 1% level. Relationships determined are applicable in semi-arid basins of the Southwest up to 60 square miles (155 km²) in area.     

Composting clam processing wastes in a laboratory- and pilot-scale in-vessel system

Waste materials from the clam processing industry (offal, shells) have several special characteristics such as a high salinity level, a high nitrogen content, and a low C/N ratio. The traditional disposal of clam waste through landfilling is facing the challenges of limited land available, increasing tipping fees, and strict environmental and regulatory scrutiny. The aim of this work is to investigate the performance of in-vessel composting as an alternative for landfill application of these materials. Experiments were performed in both laboratory-scale (5L) and pilot-scale (120L) reactors, with woodchips as the bulking agent. In the laboratory-scale composting test, the clam waste and woodchips were mixed in ratios from 1:0.5 to 1:3 (w/w, wet weight). The high ratios resulted in a better temperature performance, a higher electrical conductivity, and a higher ash content than the low-ratio composting. The C/N ratio of the composts was in the range of 9:1-18:1. In the pilot-scale composting test, a 1:1 ratio of clam waste to woodchips was used. The temperature profile during the composting process met the US Environmental Protection Agency sanitary requirement. The final cured compost had a C/N ratio of 14.6, with an ash content of 167.0+/-14.1g/kg dry matter. In addition to the major nutrients (carbon, nitrogen, calcium, magnesium, phosphorus, potassium, sulfur, and sodium), the compost also contained trace amounts of zinc, manganese, copper, and boron, indicating that the material can be used as a good resource for plant nutrients.     

Planning,governance and rural futures in Australia and the USA: revisiting the case for rural regional planning

Rural regions in post-industrial countries confront significant new challenges, particularly in relation to climate, biodiversity, unconventional resource development and energy. Yet at a time when the contours of these challenges are still being sketched, and preliminary, planned interventions undertaken, the practice of rural planning finds itself at a low ebb. We examine two ‘critical cases’, one each from Australia and the USA, to explore the issues and options for capacity of rural regional planning to surmount these new challenges. Our examination indicates the urgent need for a renewed discourse on rural regional planning.