A context-intensive approach to imputation of missing values in data sets from networks of environmental monitors

Although networks of environmental monitors are constantly improving through advances in technology and management, instances of missing data still occur. Many methods of imputing values for missing data are available, but they are often difficult to use or produce unsatisfactory results. I-Bot (short for “Imputation Robot”) is a context-intensive approach to the imputation of missing data in data sets from networks of environmental monitors. I-Bot is easy to use and routinely produces imputed values that are highly reliable. I-Bot is described and demonstrated using more than 10 years of California data for daily maximum 8-hr ozone, 24-hr PM_2.5 (particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter <2.5 μm), mid-day average surface temperature, and mid-day average wind speed. I-Bot performance is evaluated by imputing values for observed data as if they were missing, and then comparing the imputed values with the observed values. In many cases, I-Bot is able to impute values for long periods with missing data, such as a week, a month, a year, or even longer. Qualitative visual methods and standard quantitative metrics demonstrate the effectiveness of the I-Bot methodology.Implications: Many resources are expended every year to analyze and interpret data sets from networks of environmental monitors. A large fraction of those resources is used to cope with difficulties due to the presence of missing data. The I-Bot method of imputing values for such missing data may help convert incomplete data sets into virtually complete data sets that facilitate the analysis and reliable interpretation of vital environmental data.     

Towards quantifying the glacial runoff signal in the freshwater input to Tyrolerfjord–Young Sound,NE Greenland

Terrestrial freshwater runoff strongly influences physical and biogeochemical processes at the fjord scale and can have global impacts when considered at the Greenland scale. We investigate the performance of the HIRHAM5 regional climate model over the catchments delivering freshwater to Tyrolerfjord and Young Sound by comparing to the unique Greenland Ecological Monitoring database of in situ observations from this region. Based on these findings, we estimate and discuss the fraction of runoff originating from glacierized and non-glacierized land delivered at the daily scale between 1996 and 2008. We find that glaciers contributed on average 50–80% of annual terrestrial runoff when considering different sections of Tyrolerfjord–Young Sound, but snowpack depletion on land and consequently runoff happens about one month earlier in the model than observed in the field. The temporal shift in the model is a likely explanation why summer surface salinity in the inner fjord did not correlate to modelled runoff.     

Supporting Diverse Data Providers in the Open Water Data Initiative: Communicating Water Data Quality and Fitness of Use

Shared, trusted, timely data are essential elements for the cooperation needed to optimize economic, ecologic, and public safety concerns related to water. The Open Water Data Initiative (OWDI) will provide a fully scalable platform that can support a wide variety of data from many diverse providers. Many of these will be larger, well‐established, and trusted agencies with a history of providing well‐documented, standardized, and archive‐ready products. However, some potential partners may be smaller, distributed, and relatively unknown or untested as data providers. The data these partners will provide are valuable and can be used to fill in many data gaps, but can also be variable in quality or supplied in nonstandardized formats. They may also reflect the smaller partners' variable budgets and missions, be intermittent, or of unknown provenance. A challenge for the OWDI will be to convey the quality and the contextual “fitness” of data from providers other than the most trusted brands. This article reviews past and current methods for documenting data quality. Three case studies are provided that describe processes and pathways for effective data‐sharing and publication initiatives. They also illustrate how partners may work together to find a metadata reporting threshold that encourages participation while maintaining high data integrity. And lastly, potential governance is proposed that may assist smaller partners with short‐ and long‐term participation in the OWDI.     

Hydrocarbon emission fingerprints from contemporary vehicle/engine technologies with conventional and new fuels

The present paper presents results from the analysis of 29 individual C₂–C₉ hydrocarbons (HCs) specified in the European Commission Ozone Directive. The 29 HCs are measured in exhaust from common, contemporary vehicle/engine/fuel technologies for which very little or no data is available in the literature. The obtained HC emission fingerprints are compared with fingerprints deriving from technologies that are being phased out in Europe. Based on the total of 138 emission tests, thirteen type-specific fingerprints are extracted (Mean ± SD percentage contributions from individual HCs to the total mass of the 29 HCs), essential for receptor modelling source apportionment. The different types represent exhaust from Euro3 and Euro4 light-duty (LD) diesel and petrol-vehicles, Euro3 heavy-duty (HD) diesel exhaust, and exhaust from 2-stroke preEuro, Euro1 and Euro2 mopeds. The fuels comprise liquefied petroleum gas, petrol/ethanol blends (0–85% ethanol), and mineral diesel in various blends (0–100%) with fatty acid methyl esters, rapeseed methyl esters palm oil methyl esters, soybean oil methyl or sunflower oil methyl esters. Type-specific tracer compounds (markers) are identified for the various vehicle/engine/fuel technologies.An important finding is an insignificant effect on the HC fingerprints of varying the test driving cycle, indicating that combining HC fingerprints from different emission studies for receptor modelling purposes would be a robust approach.The obtained results are discussed in the context of atmospheric ozone formation and health implications from emissions (mg km^?1 for LD and mopeds and mg kW h^?1 for HD, all normalised to fuel consumption: mg dm^?3 fuel) of the harmful HCs, benzene and 1,3-butadiene.Another important finding is a strong linear correlation of the regulated “total” hydrocarbon emissions (tot-HC) with the ozone formation potential of the 29 HCs (ΣPO₃ = (1.66 ± 0.04) × tot-RH; r² = 0.93). Tot-HC is routinely monitored in emission control laboratories, whereas C₂–C₉ are not. The revealed strong correlations broadens the usability of data from vehicle emission control laboratories and facilitates the comparison of the ozone formation potential of HCs in exhaust from of old and new vehicle/engine/fuel technologies.     

Convergent development of ecological,genetic, and morphological traits in native supercolonies of the red ant Myrmica rubra

Ant supercolonies (large networks of interconnected nests) represent the most extreme form of multi-queen breeding (polygyny) and have been found across ant lineages, usually in specific long-term stable populations. Many studies on the genetic population structure and demography of ant supercolonies have been done in recent decades, but they have lacked multicolonial control patches with separated colonies headed by a single or few queens so the origin of the supercolonial trait syndrome has remained enigmatic. Here, we set out to compare sympatric supercolonial and multicolonial patches in two natural Danish populations of the common red ant Myrmica rubra. We used DNA microsatellites to reconstruct genetic colony/population structure and obtained morphological and density measurements to estimate life history and ecology covariates. We found that supercolonies in both populations completely dominated their patches whereas colonies in multicolonial patches coexisted with other ant species. Supercolony patches had very low genetic differentiation between nests, negligible relatedness within nests, and lower inbreeding than multicolonial patches, but there were no significant morphological differences. One population also had nests that approached true outbred monogyny with larger workers and males but smaller queens than in the two other social nest types. Our results suggest that once smaller colonies start to adopt additional queens, they also gain the potential to ultimately become supercolonial when the habitat allows rapid expansion through nest budding. This is relevant for understanding obligate polygyny in ants and for appreciating how and why introduced North American populations of M. rubra have recently become invasive.     

An Air Quality Data Analysis System for Interrelating Effects,Standards, and Needed Source Reductions: Part 13— Applying the EPA Proposed Guidelines for Carcinogen Risk Assessment to a Set of Asbestos Lung Cancer Mortality Data

Abstract

The Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 (CAAA-90) list 189 hazardous air pollutants (HAPs) for which “safe” ambient concentrations are to be determined. The primary purpose of this paper is to develop two mathematical models, lognormal and logarithmic, that effectively express excess lung cancer mortality as a function of asbestos concentration for an example set of data and also to suggest using these two models for additional HAPs. The secondary purpose of this paper is to calculate a “safe” asbestos concentration by first assuming a default linear extrapolation (to one excess death per million people, as specified for carcinogenic HAPs). The resulting “safe” concentration is an impossible-to-achieve 1/1000 of present background asbestos concentrations. A letter to the editor and a response in this Journal issue use additional asbestos data that suggest that the “safe” concentration should be about 730 times higher than first calculated here and that a default nonlinear extrapolation should be used instead, with the “safe” concentration proportional to the desired mortality level raised to the 0.39 power. These results suggest that the most important problem in setting a “safe” concentration for each carcinogenic HAP is to determine the correct nonlinear extrapolation to use for each HAP.     

Riparian Bird Communities as Indicators of Human Impacts Along Mediterranean Streams

Riparian areas link aquatic and terrestrial habitats, supporting species-rich bird communities, which integrate both terrestrial and aquatic processes. For this reason, inclusion of riparian birds in stream bioassessment could add to the information currently provided by existing programs that monitor aquatic organisms. To assess if bird community metrics could indicate stream conditions, we sampled breeding birds in the riparian zone of 37 reaches in 5 streams draining watersheds representing a gradient of agricultural intensity in central Italy. As a more direct indicator of water quality, stream macroinvertebrates were also sampled for computation of the Italian Extended Biotic Index (IBE). An anthropogenic index was calculated within 1 km of sampled reaches based on satellite-derived land-use classifications. Predictive models of macroinvertebrate integrity based on land-use and avian metrics were compared using an information-theoretic approach (AIC). We also determined if stream quality related to the detection of riverine species. Apparent bird species diversity and richness peaked at intermediate levels of land-use modification, but increased with IBE values. Water quality did not relate to the detection of riverine species as a guild, but two species, the dipper Cinclus cinclus and the grey wagtail Motacilla cinerea, were only observed in reaches with the highest IBE values. Small-bodied insectivorous birds and arboreal species were detected more often in reaches with better water quality and in less modified landscapes. In contrast, larger and granivorous species were more common in disturbed reaches. According to the information-theoretic approach, the best model for predicting water quality included the anthropogenic index, bird species diversity, and an index summarizing the trophic structure of the bird community. We conclude that, in combination with landscape-level information, the diversity and trophic structure of riparian bird communities could serve as a rapid indicator of stream-dwelling macroinvertebrates and, therefore, degradation of in-stream biotic integrity.     

An assessment of the optimal scale for monitoring of MODIS and FIA NPP across the eastern USA

Robust monitoring of carbon sequestration by forests requires the use of multiple data sources analyzed at a common scale. To that end, model-based Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and field-based Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) data of net primary productivity (NPP) were compared at increasing levels of spatial aggregation across the eastern USA. A total of 52,167 FIA plots and colocated MODIS forest cover NPP pixels were analyzed using a hexagonal tiling system. A protocol was developed to assess the optimal scale as an optimal size of landscape patches at which to map spatially explicit estimates of MODIS and FIA NPP. The optimal mapping resolution (hereafter referred to as optimal scale) is determined using spatially scaled z-statistics as the tradeoff between increased spatial agreement as measured by Pearson’s correlation coefficient and decreased details of coverage as measured by the number of hexagons. Spatial sensitivity was also assessed using land cover assessment and forest homogeneity using spatially scaled z-statistics. Pearson correlations indicate that MODIS and FIA NPP are most highly correlated when using large hexagons, while z-statistics indicate an optimal scale at an intermediate hexagon size of 390 km². This optimal scale had more spatial detail than was obtained for larger hexagons and greater spatial agreement than was obtained for smaller hexagons. The z-statistics for land cover assessment and forest homogeneity also indicated an optimal scale of 390 km².     

Mind the gap in SEA: An institutional perspective on why assessment of synergies amongst climate change mitigation, adaptation and other policy areas are missing

This article takes its point of departure in two approaches to integrating climate change into Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA): Mitigation and adaptation, and in the fact that these, as well as the synergies between them and other policy areas, are needed as part of an integrated assessment and policy response. First, the article makes a review of how positive and negative synergies between a) climate change mitigation and adaptation and b) climate change and other environmental concerns are integrated into Danish SEA practice. Then, the article discusses the implications of not addressing synergies. Finally, the article explores institutional explanations as to why synergies are not addressed in SEA practice. A document analysis of 149 Danish SEA reports shows that only one report comprises the assessment of synergies between mitigation and adaptation, whilst 9,4% of the reports assess the synergies between climate change and other environmental concerns. The consequences of separation are both the risk of trade-offs and missed opportunities for enhancing positive synergies. In order to propose explanations for the lacking integration, the institutional background is analysed and discussed, mainly based on Scott's theory of institutions. The institutional analysis highlights a regulatory element, since the assessment of climate change synergies is underpinned by legislation, but not by guidance. This means that great focus is on normative elements such as the local interpretation of legislation and of climate change mitigation and adaptation. The analysis also focuses on how the fragmentation of the organisation in which climate change and SEA are embedded has bearings on both normative and cultural-cognitive elements. This makes the assessment of synergies challenging. The evidence gathered and presented in the article points to a need for developing the SEA process and methodology in Denmark with the aim to include climate change in the assessments in a more systematic and integrated manner.