Monitoring,imperfect detection,and risk optimization of a Tasmanian devil insurance population

Most species are imperfectly detected during biological surveys, which creates uncertainty around their abundance or presence at a given location. Decision makers managing threatened or pest species are regularly faced with this uncertainty. Wildlife diseases can drive species to extinction; thus, managing species with disease is an important part of conservation. Devil facial tumor disease (DFTD) is one such disease that led to the listing of the Tasmanian devil (Sarcophilus harrisii) as endangered. Managers aim to maintain devils in the wild by establishing disease‐free insurance populations at isolated sites. Often a resident DFTD‐affected population must first be removed. In a successful collaboration between decision scientists and wildlife managers, we used an accessible population model to inform monitoring decisions and facilitate the establishment of an insurance population of devils on Forestier Peninsula. We used a Bayesian catch‐effort model to estimate population size of a diseased population from removal and camera trap data. We also analyzed the costs and benefits of declaring the area disease‐free prior to reintroduction and establishment of a healthy insurance population. After the monitoring session in May–June 2015, the probability that all devils had been successfully removed was close to 1, even when we accounted for a possible introduction of a devil to the site. Given this high probability and the baseline cost of declaring population absence prematurely, we found it was not cost‐effective to carry out any additional monitoring before introducing the insurance population. Considering these results within the broader context of Tasmanian devil management, managers ultimately decided to implement an additional monitoring session before the introduction. This was a conservative decision that accounted for uncertainty in model estimates and for the broader nonmonetary costs of mistakenly declaring the area disease‐free.     

Downscaling and visioning of mountain snow packs and other climate change implications in North Vancouver, British Columbia

This paper provides an overview of a collaborative study on visualizing climate change at the local scale. A conceptual framework has been developed, in which local scenarios and visualizations of climate change impacts and response were created to facilitate local dialogue on incorporating climate change into long-term planning and implementation of community development decisions. As part of a larger effort to generate a new integrated participatory visioning process, this paper describes a case study of the District of North Vancouver which created visualizations of changing mountain snow and landscape conditions, and provides new insights on issues and dilemmas in using realistic landscape visualizations to depict scientific modelling projections, local responses to climate change, and uncertainty. Results from this study suggest that the visualizations, and subsequent dialogue sessions, did influence emotional response to climate change as well as self-assessed understanding of adaptation and mitigation response options. However, there is a need to test this visioning process with larger heterogeneous groups of participants in order to better assess its effectiveness in enabling dialogue on local responses to climate change.     

Interaction webs in arctic ecosystems: Determinants of arctic change?

How species interact modulate their dynamics, their response to environmental change, and ultimately the functioning and stability of entire communities. Work conducted at Zackenberg, Northeast Greenland, has changed our view on how networks of arctic biotic interactions are structured, how they vary in time, and how they are changing with current environmental change: firstly, the high arctic interaction webs are much more complex than previously envisaged, and with a structure mainly dictated by its arthropod component. Secondly, the dynamics of species within these webs reflect changes in environmental conditions. Thirdly, biotic interactions within a trophic level may affect other trophic levels, in some cases ultimately affecting land–atmosphere feedbacks. Finally, differential responses to environmental change may decouple interacting species. These insights form Zackenberg emphasize that the combination of long-term, ecosystem-based monitoring, and targeted research projects offers the most fruitful basis for understanding and predicting the future of arctic ecosystems.     

Use of CALPUFF for exposure assessment in a near-field,complex terrain setting

CALPUFF is an atmospheric source-receptor model recommended by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency for use on a case-by-case basis in complex terrain and wind conditions. The ability of the model to provide useful information for exposure assessments in areas with those topographical and meteorological conditions has received little attention. This is an important knowledge gap for use of CALPUFF outside of regulatory applications, such as exposure analyses conducted in support of risk assessments and health studies. We compared deposition of cadmium (Cd), lead (Pb), and zinc (Zn) calculated with CALPUFF as a result of emissions from a zinc smelter with corresponding concentrations of the metals measured in attic dust and soil samples obtained from the surrounding area. On a point-by-point analysis, predictions from CALPUFF explained 11% (lead) to 53% (zinc) of the variability in concentrations measured in attic dust. Levels of heavy metals in soil interpolated to 100 residential addresses from the distribution of concentrations measured in soil samples also agreed well with deposition predicted with CALPUFF: R² of 0.46, 0.76, and 079 for Pb, Cd, and Zn, respectively. Community-average concentrations of Cd, Pb, and Zn measured in soil were significantly (p < 0.0001) and strongly correlated (R² ranged from 0.77 to 0.98) with predicted deposition rates. These findings demonstrate that CALPUFF can provide reasonably accurate predictions of the patterns of long-term air pollutant deposition in the near-field associated with emissions from a discrete source in complex terrain. Because deposition estimates are calculated as a linear function of air concentrations, CALPUFF is expected to be reliable model for prediction of long-term average, near-field ambient air concentrations in complex terrain as well.     

Bioavailability of residual polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons following enhanced natural attenuation of creosote-contaminated soil

The impact of residual PAHs (2250 ± 71 μg total PAHs g⁻¹) following enhanced natural attenuation (ENA) of creosote-contaminated soil (7767 ± 1286 μg total PAHs g⁻¹) was assessed using a variety of ecological assays. Microtox™ results for aqueous soil extracts indicated that there was no significant difference in EC₅₀ values for uncontaminated, pre- and post-remediated soil. However, in studies conducted with Eisenia fetida, PAH bioaccumulation was reduced by up to 6.5-fold as a result of ENA. Similarly, Beta vulgaris L. biomass yields were increased 2.1-fold following ENA of creosote-contaminated soil. While earthworm and plant assays indicated that PAH bioavailability was reduced following ENA, the residual PAH fraction still exerted toxicological impacts on both receptors. Results from this study highlight that residual PAHs following ENA (presumably non-bioavailable to bioremediation) may still be bioavailable to important receptor organisms such as earthworms and plants.     

Short-run allocation of emissions allowances and long-term goals for climate policy

We use economic analysis to evaluate grandfathering, auctioning, and benchmarking approaches for allocation of emissions allowances and then discuss practical experience from European and American schemes. In principle, auctions are superior from the viewpoints of efficiency, fairness, transparency, and simplicity. In practice, auctions have been opposed by important sectors of industry, which argue that carbon pricing without compensation would harm international competitiveness. In the European Union's Emissions Trading System, this concern led to grandfathering that is updated at various intervals. Unfortunately, updating gives industry an incentive to change behavior to influence future allocation. Furthermore, the wealth transferred to incumbent firms can be significantly larger than the extra costs incurred, leading to windfall profits. Meanwhile, potential auction revenues are not available to reduce other taxes. By circumscribing free allocation, benchmarking can target competitiveness concerns, incur less wealth transfer, and provide a strategy consistent with transitioning to auctions in the long run.     

Strontium isotope study of coal utilization by-products interacting with environmental waters

Sequential leaching experiments on coal utilization by-products (CUB) were coupled with chemical and strontium (Sr) isotopic analyses to better understand the influence of coal type and combustion processes on CUB properties and the release of elements during interaction with environmental waters during disposal. Class C fly ash tended to release the highest quantity of minor and trace elements-including alkaline earth elements, sodium, chromium, copper, manganese, lead, titanium, and zinc-during sequential extraction, with bottom ash yielding the lowest. Strontium isotope ratios ((87)Sr/(86)Sr) in bulk-CUB samples (total dissolution of CUB) are generally higher in class F ash than in class C ash. Bulk-CUB ratios appear to be controlled by the geologic source of the mineral matter in the feed coal, and by Sr added during desulfurization treatments. Leachates of the CUB generally have Sr isotope ratios that are different than the bulk value, demonstrating that Sr was not isotopically homogenized during combustion. Variations in the Sr isotopic composition of CUB leachates were correlated with mobility of several major and trace elements; the data suggest that arsenic and lead are held in phases that contain the more radiogenic (high-(87)Sr/(86)Sr) component. A changing Sr isotope ratio of CUB-interacting waters in a disposal environment could forecast the release of certain strongly bound elements of environmental concern. This study lays the groundwork for the application of Sr isotopes as an environmental tracer for CUB-water interaction.