A stochastic approach for risk analysis in vapor cloud explosion

A stochastic approach for evaluating the risk of vapor cloud explosions is proposed in this work. The proposed methodology aims to incorporate the effect of uncertainty into the risk analysis to produce a better overall view for the risk. Some stochastic variables are used to estimate the probability of vapor cloud explosions: frequency of the release, the probability of not having an immediate ignition, the probability of delayed ignition and the probability of a vapor cloud explosion given a delayed ignition, as well as different possible meteorological conditions. These stochastic variables are represented with probability distribution curves. Different curves for the frequencies of releases from process equipment types (steel process pipes, flanges, manual valves, actuated valves, etc.), different equipment diameters and different leak sizes are also used in this analysis. Monte Carlo simulation is performed to obtain the risk as a probability distribution using the Analytic Solver Platform. Then the risk distribution curve obtained by Monte Carlo simulation is used to estimate the probability of satisfying the risk tolerance criterion.     

CFD-based assessment and visualization of the failure consequences of LPG tankers

This paper presents a simulation analysis of the explosions following an LPG leak and visualizes the consequences of the accident to reduce the consequences of the LPG leak explosion. Firstly, this paper proposes a CFD numerical simulation-based method for visualizing the consequences of LPG tanker failure. The method combines satellite maps and CFD numerical simulation data to visualize the consequences of LPG leaks and explosions, taking into account the influence of obstacles on the danger range of leaks and explosions; Secondly, this paper applies the method to a liquefied petroleum gas accident that occurred in the Wenling section of the Shenhai Expressway and performs CFD numerical simulation on the accident process and visualizes the consequences of the accident. Therefore, this method can provide a theoretical reference for the prior prevention of LPG accidents and the analysis of the consequences of accidents, as well as certain practical guidance instructive.     

基于随机抽样推测法的LPG储槽2次爆炸事故的模型研究

在借鉴LPG储槽2次爆炸事故后果不确定分析成果的基础上,对事故过程中的不确定参数进行重新分析与选择,将孔洞上方液位高度h0,气云的TNT当量系数α,泄漏开始到点火源出现之前的持续时间t亦作为不确定分析的参数,并利用随机抽样推测的不确定分析方法,对VCE与BLEVE 2次事故后果进行重新分析,获得了与前人研究成果差异较大的结果,并由此分析这些参数对于事故后果影响的显著性。同时对2次爆炸事故的伤害距离进行了研究与分析,由于LPG的闪蒸以及参数α的影响,本案例中LPG泄漏量为总量的80%-90%以上时,2次事故的死亡半径相等且达到最小。     

LPG沸腾液体扩展蒸气爆炸火球热辐射概率风险评估

分析了火球热辐射的特点,针对LPG沸腾液体扩展蒸气爆炸火球造成的热辐射危害存在不确定性,建立了爆炸火球热辐射风险评估模型,提出了一种基于Monte-Carlo模拟的不确定性处理方法,引入实例计算了LPG沸腾液体扩展蒸气爆炸火球伤害范围、事故风险概率曲线方程和累计概率曲线方程,对于定量评估火球热辐射风险具有重要意义.     

Comparison of explosion models for detonation onset estimation in large-scale unconfined vapor clouds

Although industrial denotations in semi-open and congested geometries are often neglected by many practitioners during risk assessment, recent studies have shown that industrial detonations might be more common than previously believed. Therefore, from the explosion safety perspective, it becomes imperative to better assess industrial detonation hazards to improve robustness of explosion mitigation design, emergency response procedures, and building siting evaluation. Having that in mind, this study aims to review current empirical vapor cloud explosion models, understand their limitations, and assess their capability to indicate detonation onset for elongated vapor clouds. Six models were evaluated in total: TNO Multi-Energy, Baker-Strehlow-Tang (BST), Congestion Assessment Method (CAM), Quest Model for Estimation of Flame Speed (QMEFS), Primary Explosion Site (PES), and Confinement Specific Correlation (CSC). Model estimations were compared with large-scale test data available in the open literature. The CAM model demonstrated good performance in indicating deflagration-to-detonation transition (DDT) for test conditions experiencing detonation onset without any modification in the methodology. Some suggestions are provided to improve simulation results from PES, BST and QMEFS.     

A multivariable model for estimation of vapor cloud explosion occurrence possibility based on a Fuzzy logic approach for flammable materials

In this paper, a new method based on Fuzzy theory is presented to estimate the occurrence possibility of vapor cloud explosion (VCE) of flammable materials. This new method helps the analyst to overcome some uncertainties associated with estimating VCE possibility with the Event Tree (ET) technique. In this multi-variable model, the physical properties of the released material and the characteristics of the surrounding environment are used as the parameters specifying the occurrence possibility of intermediate events leading to a VCE. Factors such as area classification, degree of congestion of a plant and release rate are notably affecting the output results. Moreover, the proposed method benefits from experts' opinions in the estimation of the VCE possibility. A refrigeration cycle is used as the case study and the probability of VCE occurrence is determined for different scenarios. In this study, sensitivity analysis is performed on the model parameters to assess their effect on the final values of the VCE possibility. Furthermore, the results are compared with the results obtained using other existing models.     

Explosion of solvent vapor in a ring partition of the floating roof

The relative importance of the vapor cloud explosion (VCE) hazard has grown in recent years. Many of large disasters were attributed to the VCE. This article introduced an explosion accident of solvent vapor in a ring partition of floating roof in detail. Source of explosive materials and ignition reason were analyzed, and the blast equivalency in ring partition was estimated in the specific conditions. The case would provide a reference for preventing the similar accident.