区域水战略方案选优的动态组合评价模型研究

水安全危机是人类进入新世纪以来在生存及发展方面所面临的最严重挑战之一。研究科学合理的水安全战略成为区域可持续发展的重大课题。针对区域水战略问题涉及众多因素且各因素之间动态关联的特点，提出了基于水战略方案优选的兼容度极大化动态组合评价模型（CMM—DCEM），并将其成功地应用于我国广东省北江下游及其三角洲地区水安全战略方案优选评价。评价结果及模型基于不确定性的敏感性分析结果证明：CMM—DCEM实现了主、客观赋权方法以及单一评价模型的融合，使用实码加速遗传算法求解目标函数，克服了传统的组合评价方法计算繁琐的不足，评价过程更加科学合理。     

重金属离子对肺表面活性物质单层膜的影响

为了探究重金属对肺表面活性物质（PS）膜的影响,利用Langmuir–Wilhelmy膜天平,研究了不同种类和浓度的重金属离子与PS单层膜的相互作用.发现Cr³⁺、Cu²⁺、Hg²⁺、Pb²⁺、Cd²⁺、Ni²⁺6种重金属离子均使PS单层的π-A等温线G-LE相变阶段外扩,而Fe³⁺可诱导单层缩合.随后,选取Cd²⁺,Cu²⁺,Hg²⁺,Fe³⁺4种离子进一步探究了重金属浓度对PS单层膜表面活性的影响规律,进行了可压缩模量分析,并结合红外光谱（FTIR）和原子力显微镜（AFM）探究其作用机理,发现Cu²⁺,Fe³⁺和Hg²⁺均会以浓度依赖的方式与PS单层的极性头部发生络合作用,形成复合物,改变膜的稳定性;而Cd²⁺的影响明显弱于其他3种金属离子,但也能使得PS单层有序性增强.     

气候变化和人类活动对武江流域年径流及最大日流量影响的定量分析

针对气候变化与人类活动对流域年径流及最大日流量变化影响的定量识别问题,以华南湿润区武江流域为例,分别采用HIMS（Hydro-Informatic Modeling System）模型和敏感性系数法,从日和年尺度定量模拟和评估气候变化与人类活动对流域年最大日流量和径流变化的影响过程及贡献率。结果表明：HIMS模型在武江流域适用性良好,日尺度模型率定期和验证期的纳西效率系数分别为0.85和0.77,水量平衡误差绝对值分别为3.1%和3.3%;两种方法均表明气候变化是引起流域年径流量增加的主要因素,人类活动导致了流域径流量的减少,但贡献率较小。气候变化与人类活动导致了流域年最大日流量的增加,气候变化对年最大日流量增加的贡献率为94%,而人类活动的贡献率则为6%。相较于年均径流量,气候变化对年最大日流量的影响更为显著。     

塘库沉积的137Cs法断代测定三峡库区小流域产沙量

本文以三峡库区重庆忠县黄冲子小流域和工农沟小流域为研究区域,依据塘库修建时间(1955年)、退耕还林工程启动时间(2000年)和~(137)Cs示踪技术,确定了小流域不同时期产沙量及产沙模数,并分析比较了不同小流域的塘库沉积物~(137)Cs含量和产沙模数。研究结果表明,黄冲子小流域和工农沟小流域1955~1963年、1963~2000年、2001~2014年的产沙模数均呈下降趋势,库区小流域生态环境得到明显改善;黄冲子小流域不同时期产沙模数均大于工农沟小流域,工农沟塘库沉积物1963年~(137)Cs峰值和表层泥沙~(137)Cs浓度均小于黄冲子塘库,主要与小流域的土地利用类型以及侵蚀方式有关。在以后的研究中,应该加强库区小流域沟道侵蚀产沙量的定量估算,为长江经济带生态环境建设提供参考依据。     

A Variance Estimator for Constrained Estimates of Change in Relative Categorical Frequencies

Consistent estimators of change and state becomes an issue when sample data come from a mix of permanent and temporary observation units. A joint maximum likelihood estimator of state and change creates estimates of state that depend on antecedent viz. posterior survey results and may differ from estimates of state derived from a single-date analysis of the sample data. A constrained estimator of change in relative categorical frequencies that eliminates this potential inconsistency is proposed and a model based estimator of their sampling variance is developed. The performance of the constrained estimator is quantified against six criteria and a joint maximum likelihood estimator in simulated sampling from 15 populations with three combinations of permanent and temporary samples, four to six categorical class attributes, and constant size between sampling dates. Bias of the constrained estimators was negligible but larger than for joint maximum likelihood estimators. Mean absolute deviations and variances of constrained estimators were generally at par with the joint estimators. Constrained estimators of root mean square errors and achieved coverage of nominal confidence intervals of constrained estimators were occasionally better. A generalized variance function for the constrained estimates of change is provided as a computational shortcut.     

Monitoring of Butter and Ghee (Clarified Butter Fat) for Pesticidal Contamination from Cotton Belt of Haryana, India

Butter (45) and ghee (55) samples were collected from rural and urban areas of cotton growing belt of Haryana and analysed for detecting the residues of organochlorine, synthetic pyrethroid and organophosphate insecticides. The estimation was carried out by using multi residue analytical technique employing GC-ECD and GC-NPD systems equipped with capillary columns. Butter samples were comparatively more contaminated (97%) than ghee (94%), showing more contamination with organochlorine insecticides from urban samples. About 11% samples of butter showed endosulfan residues above MRL value and 2% samples had residues of synthetic pyrethroids and organophosphates each above their respective MRL values. In ghee, residues of HCH & DDT both and of endosulfan exceeded the MRL values in 5 and 20% samples, respectively. Among organophosphates, only chlorpyriphos was detected with 9% samples showing its residue above MRL value. Irrespective of contamination levels, residues above the MRL values were more in ghee. More extensive study covering other agricultural regions/zones of Haryana has been suggested to know the overall scenario of contamination of milk products.     

Monitoring of Seasonal Vegetables for Pesticide Residues

Market samples (60) of six seasonal vegetables were monitoredduring 1996–1997 to determine the magnitude of pesticidalcontamination. The estimation of insecticide residuesrepresenting four major chemical groups i.e. organochlorine,organophosphorous, synthetic pyrethroid and carbamate, was doneby adopting a multiresidue analytical technique employingGC-ECD and GC-NPD systems with capillary columns. The testedsamples showed 100% contamination with low but measurableamounts of residues. Among the four chemical groups, theorganophosphates were dominant followed by organochlorines,synthetic pyrethroids and carbamates. About 23% of the samplesshowed contamination with organophosphorous compounds abovetheir respective MRL values. More extensive studies coveringdifferent regions of Haryana state are suggested to get a clearidea of the magnitude of vegetable contamination with pesticideresidues.     

多级模糊模式识别方法用于湖泊水质评价

进行模糊综合评估的应用与研究很多，在那些方法中主要应用最大隶属度原则进行最后的评定，但是湖泊水质评价涉及到多样点多项指标等多因素，一般模糊综合评价方法中的最大隶属度原则不能适用。本文利用多级模糊模式识别方法的基本理论，通过多目标优选，给出了更加合理、科学的评价模型；利用该模型我们对武汉市东湖水质监测结果做出了较为合理的评价。     

我国4种重要海水经济鱼类热忍受研究

为了探明我国重要海水经济鱼类的热忍受能力,分别采用急性升温和缓慢升温两种方法对大黄鱼Pseudosciaena crocea、鲈鱼Lateolabrax joponicus、真鲷Pagrosomus major、黑鲷Sparus macrocephalus进行了室内热效应模拟实验.研究结果表明:在夏季自然起始水温为28.5℃条件下,大黄鱼,鲈鱼和黑鲷的急性升温半致死温度(LT50)分别为34.2,33.9和36.4℃;大黄鱼,鲈鱼,真鲷和黑鲷的临界热最大值(critical thermal maxima,CTmax)分别为35.0,34.7,32.7和36.8℃.     

开式冷挤压成形深小锥孔件时极限变形程度的理论研究

给出了深小锥孔件开式冷挤压成形时极限变形程度的定义,建立了变形区非稳态连续速度场;利用上限原理得到了极限变形程度的理论判据。分析了各主要参数对极限变形程度的影响规律,对指导制定深小锥孔件开式冷挤压成形工艺具有重要意义。