官方媒体参与下不同风险感知群体竞争模型及其演化规律

为识别公众风险感知的演化规律和官方媒体参与的作用机制，首先，根据公众的行为表现划分不同风险感知群体，并分析群体间的相互竞争和官方媒体的扰动作用；然后，通过扩展Lotka Volterra模型建立群体间的相互竞争模型；在此基础上，通过推导模型平衡点及其稳定性分析模型演化规律；最后，运用数值仿真考查了官方媒体的参与对模型演化的影响。研究结果表明:模型演化具有3种结果情景，官方媒体参与能够显著改变模型演化的速度和结果。     

高层官员地震应急演练中应急决策行为的质性分析

为了研究高层官员在非常规突发事件应对中的决策行为,通过地震应急演练,从决策建议的影响、决策对象的选择与优先级排序等方面对决策样本进行质性分析。应用NVivo12软件对某次高层官员参与的特大地震应急决策演练中采集的45份决策样本,在结构化处理的基础上确定编码标准,遍历样本并对应急决策编码,得到观测数据并进行分析。研究结果表明,演练中的高层官员决策行为有以下3方面特征:受决策建议影响明显;在灾情、舆情以及基础设施等方面有自主决策;不同层级间对决策权重排序存在显著差异。     

Driving self-regulation and ride service utilization in a multicommunity,multistate sample of U.S. older adults

Objectives: This study examined a multicommunity alternative transportation program available 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, for any purpose, offering door-through-door service in private automobiles to members who either do not drive or are transitioning away from driving. Specific aims were to describe the characteristics of members by driving status and ride service usage of these members.

Methods: Data came from administrative records maintained by a nonprofit ride service program and include 2,661 individuals aged 65+ residing in 14 states who joined the program between April 1, 2010, and November 8, 2013. Latent class analysis was used to group current drivers into 3 classes of driving status of low, medium, and high self-regulation, based on their self-reported avoidance of certain driving situations and weekly driving frequency. Demographics and ride service use rate for rides taken through March 31, 2014, by type of ride (e.g., medical, social, etc.) were calculated for nondrivers and drivers in each driving status class.

Results: The majority of ride service users were female (77%) and aged 65–74 years (82%). The primary method of getting around when enrolling for the transportation service was by riding with a friend or family member (60%). Among the 67,883 rides given, nondrivers took the majority (69%) of rides. Medical rides were the most common, accounting for 40% of all rides.

Conclusions: Reported ride usage suggests that older adults are willing to use such ride services for a variety of trips when these services are not limited to specific types (e.g., medical). Further research can help tailor strategies to encourage both nondrivers and drivers to make better use of alternative transportation that meets the special needs of older people.     

The relative contribution of visual and auditory cues to environmental perception

This study assesses the relative dominance of vision and hearing in judgments of environments, and examines whether the sound sensitivity of the judge alters relative sensory dominance. Six sets of four composite (auditory-plus-visual) videotaped environmental displays were created from unisensory visual and auditory components with known levels of evoked affect. These displays, in a 2 (high, low) × 2 (high, low) Pleasure and/or Arousal format, were presented to 70 participants. The results indicate that visual cues dominate auditory cues in judgments of Pleasure, but that the degree of dominance is highly variable. Arousal judgments were not consistently related to visual or auditory cues. Sound sensitivity does not appear to influence the relative dominance of vision.     

省级旅游官网信息协调性评价指标权重模型分析

在深入分析我国31个省级旅游官网上的信息和对专家进行深度访谈的基础上,采用目标分解法和改进的德尔菲法确定了省级旅游官网信息协调性评价指标体系,并构建了省级旅游官网信息协调性评价指标权重模型。结果显示,省级旅游官网信息协调度主要取决于游客需求信息的丰富度和全面性,尤其是旅游目的地吃住行方面的信息。     

加大行政奖惩力度是中国环境绩效改善的主要原因吗?

"十一五"、"十二五"规划时期,中国单位GDP能耗、SO_2排放总量、COD排放总量等节能减排指标均实现了国家规划目标,这与"十五"计划三项指标均未完成形成鲜明对比。现有研究对此的解释存在宏观和微观层面上的不一致。其重要原因在于现有研究将环境绩效改善的原因完全归于行政奖惩所体现的正式制度的作用,而忽视了非正式制度对节能减排绩效的积极影响。本文建构了以包含正式激励和非正式激励的二元委托代理激励模型为基础的分析框架,利用基于717名不同级别官员的问卷数据,采用结构方程方法对上述模型进行了检验。实证结果表明,与约束性指标相关的正式制度中规定的11项奖惩措施所产生的激励对官员的环境治理行为力度并没有显著影响,而体现为顺应中央政府导向和上级领导注意力所代表的非正式制度激励对官员环境治理行为力度产生了显著影响。非正式制度激励对环境治理行为力度的影响存在两条路径。在第一条路径中,官员压力是中介变量,即非正式制度产生对官员压力的影响,官员压力又进一步影响官员环境治理行为。在这一路径中,晋升偏好、服从偏好为正向调节变量,正式奖惩的执行严格程度为负向调节变量。这一路径表明,官员晋升偏好越强、正式奖惩执行严格程度越弱,非正式制度激励对地方官员压力的影响越大;官员服从上级偏好程度越强,官员压力对环境治理行为力度的影响越大。在第二条路径中,非正式制度激励被认为直接影响环境治理行为力度,服务偏好是正向调节变量。这一路径表明,地方官员为人民服务的偏好越强,非正式激励对环境治理行为的影响越大。本文的研究发现调和了环境政策执行领域的理论冲突,为深化对中国"压力型"体制的理解提供实证证据。     

高一化学教学中实施研究性学习的探索

本文根据国家教育部制定的《全日制普通高级中学课程计划(试验修订稿)》所提出的新的培养目标，在“研究性学习”课程的实践中，煞合化学学科特点，选择“环境保护”为突破口，联系本地区实际开展环境教育活动。就“研究性学习”课题的选择、实施进行了探索，提出了我们的认识和见解。     

Official and folk flood warning systems: An assessment

Recent floods in West Bengal, India, focused public attention on the inadequacies of the flood warning system. This study examines some socioeconomic constraints on the communication of flood warning messages. It then looks at perceptions of, and responses by, villagers in a flood-prone region of West Bengal to official and folk flood warnings.The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation.     

基于LCS的应急决策文本相似性比对分析模型

作为应急管理中的主要工作内容,应急决策在整个应急管理工作中具有战略意义,为了对危机情境下的应急决策主体进行聚类分析,定量计算不同决策主体之间相应决策文本的区别。借鉴最长公共子序列模型（LCS）的原理,从决策文本中提取主题词,根据决策文本的特点将其分为“目标”和“行动”2级,结合样本总体确定替换矩阵、空位罚分规则和目标函数,构建高层应急决策文本相似性比对分析模型;运用Needleman Wunsch算法对该模型进行求解;通过对得到的地震情景下的高层应急决策文本的分析,证明模型的有效性和可行性;为了避免序列长度差过大对聚类分析的结果影响,在此基础上提出相对相似性得分的概念,并通过与VSM算法得到的结果进行比较,证明该模型在应急决策文本相似性分析中的优越性。     

基于“情景-应对”数据的高层官员应急决策行为分析框架

为研究突发事件应急处置过程中关键官员的决策行为,充实面向高层官员的决策行为实证研究方法,提出基于“情景-应对”数据的高层官员决策行为分析框架。通过设置情景、决策者、决策过程和决策变量以及变量间的作用关系建立框架运行理论内核,从情景选择到决策样本“生成→采集→处理→分析”各环节搭建框架支持完成高层官员决策行为的研究。通过某高层官员地震应急决策模拟演练实例,验证该分析框架的有效性。研究结果表明:基于“情景-应对”数据的分析框架可实现对高层官员决策行为的实证研究,可优化开发以支持更多元化的研究。