Climate policy support under political consensus: exploring the varying effect of partisanship and party cues

By creating attitudinal rifts among partisan voters, political polarization is expected to negatively affect chances of effectively mitigating climate change. While such expectations generally have found support, less attention has been paid to the opposite claim that political consensus should eliminate the partisan dimension in climate change politics. This study tests this claim by studying how party identification, and party cues specifically, affects public policy attitudes in a context defined by political consensus. Using data from a large online access panel in Sweden, party identification and party cues are shown to matter for policy attitudes even in a consensus context. This effect is not limited to certain issues but is found across a wide range of policies, and the effect of party cues, for a given issue, varies across parties. The implications of this study and areas for future work are discussed.     

基于蒙特卡罗法的煤巷锚杆支护结构可靠性分析

应用工程结构可靠性理论,建立煤巷锚杆支护结构可靠性模型,针对其结构稳定性的极限状态功能函数高度非线性的特征,采用蒙特卡罗法在Matlab环境下直接产生服从各相应概率分布函数的随机变量数组计算其结构可靠度,编程过程简化,计算速度快,精度高,且不受极限状态方程非线性、随机变量非正态的限制,开辟了煤巷锚杆支护结构可靠度计算的新途径。建立了支护参数与可靠度的关系,指出了提高煤巷锚杆支护结构可靠度的方法和措施,为煤巷锚杆支护参数设计和优化提供了科学依据。     

Towards a planning support system for environmental management and agri-environmental measures--the Colorfields study

The authors present the beginnings of a planning support system (PSS) for agri-environmental measures exemplified by a virtual implementation of Colorfields and blooming strips on model farms, based on real-world data. This paper starts with an introduction to the Colorfields, a concept for transdisciplinary and sustainable landscape design of set-aside land. Colorfields comprise of blooming strips of flowering annual or biennial plants, which are designed and drilled in pattern on fallow land creating Land Art. The temporary scenic arrangements of the Colorfields combine the advantages of ecological strips, e.g. providing habitats for insects (especially bees), improving soil fertility through the cultivation of intercrops, with improvements of the social recognition of farmers as producers of pleasant landscapes instead of monoculture fields.The prototype of the PSS uses two software tools of different scientific origin, the bio-economic modeling system MODAM and the landscape visualization system Lenné3D, which are linked based on geo-data. The resulting system helps to assess the economic effects and visualizes the effects of the specific landuse patterns under different scenarios.The economic assessment of blooming strips on arable land and of one Colorfield on fallow land shows that these measures prove to be profitable from an economic viewpoint assuming the current area payments for the obligatory European Union set-aside program. Furthermore, the visualizations enable the design to be tested virtually by exploring the resultant scenery. They provide artists, planners and stakeholders including farmers with a tool to virtually wander through landscape scenarios supporting a collaborative design and a shared vision for the community.The results of the two model farms and previous case studies for Colorfields demonstrate how current policy conditions could be used for the improvement of environmental and scenic qualities. Furthermore, the ability of the tools, MODAM and Lenné3D, suggests to support and promote these activities.     

基于SOM-SVM组合分类器的涂层防护性能研究

目的为避免EIS,EN技术可能出现的问题,建立一个准确、高效的评价模型,以探究现役军用有机涂层防护性能。方法利用电化学阻抗谱(EIS)、电化学噪声(EN)技术分析了两种军车有机涂层在循环暴露试验中的腐蚀行为,提取低频阻抗模值|Z|_(0.1 Hz)与涂层噪声电阻R_n两种电化学评价参数作为自组织神经网络(SOM)的输入训练样本,同时结合支持向量机(SVM)方法建立涂层防护性能组合分类器。结果将涂层失效过程自适应地分为涂层防护性能良好、防护性能下降、基本失效三个阶段。结论所建立的SOM-SVM组合分类器对于辅助分析涂层防护性能具有可行性。     

常压塔塔顶腐蚀关键参量相关性分析与预测

预测常压塔顶回流罐切水的关键离子浓度可以为常压塔顶系统工艺防腐提供技术指导。收集了某炼厂2014-2016年常压装置的生产实时工艺参数、原料及产品采样数据、水质分析化验参数,采用线性插值方法对不同时间尺度的数据进行补全。通过线性相关性分析获得了影响常压塔顶回流罐切水总铁离子浓度、pH的主要因素,并基于深度学习、支持向量机回归、粒子群优化方法建立了腐蚀关键参量预测模型。结果表明,pH值和总铁离子浓度的相关因素大部分重叠,与原料性质及产品馏出温度较强相关;建立的回归模型预测精度高,在训练集和预测集上,总铁离子浓度预测值与测量值最大偏差分别为4. 4%和9. 8%,pH值预测值与测量值最大偏差分别为0. 9%和1. 1%。     

用VB语言编制水环境管理决策支持系统

在分析国内外环境管理决策支持系统（ＥＤＳＳ）开发现状的基础上，提出了采用Ｍｉｃｒｏｓｏｆｔ Ｖｉｓｕａｌ Ｂａｓｉｃ来开发水环境管理决策支持系统（ＷＥＭＤＳＳ）的方法，并利用程序语言编制了广东省潭江的ＷＥＭＤＳＳ。实例研究表明，充分利用ＶＢ编程语言的特点，可以快速方便地完成ＷＥＭＤＳＳ的结构设计和实现系统的各项功能。     

网络计划在液化气球罐内外部检验过程中的应用

在以工期考虑为重点的V-3002B液化气球罐内外部检验过程中，引用现代管理中网络计划技术关键路线法，为加快芳烃厂压力容器检验提供了科学的依据。本文总结和介绍了网络计划技术在芳烃厂贮运车间V-300亚球罐内外部检验过程应用情况。     

支持向量机用于芳烃类化合物对芳烃受体亲和性QSAR研究

尝试将支持向量机(SVM)应用于3种典型芳烃类环境毒物(PCDD,PCDF和PCB)定量构效关系研究,通过对芳烃受体亲和性考察,结果发现该组样本的生物活性在一定程度上与分子电性距离矢量具有非线性联系.SVM对内部和外部样本都具良好稳定性能和预测能力:所得模型拟合、交叉检验、外部预测复相关系数及均方根误差分别为R2cum=0.922、Q2cum=0.825、Q2ext=0.834和RMSext=0.531将其与文献报道及多元线性回归、偏最小二乘、人工神经网络进行比较,结果表明对小样本、非线性问题SVM具较强拓展性及泛化能力,故在环境毒物评价和控制中具有广阔应用前景.     

政策干预对提高煤矿职工素质影响探讨

煤矿井下作业人员素质低,是煤矿事故多发的重要原因之一.建议从大幅度提高煤矿井下人员工资待遇,吸引高素质人才从事煤矿工作;全方位开展煤矿职业培训工作,坚持先培训后就业,实行煤矿从业准入制;对现在岗的煤矿从业人员分期分批进行培训,实现煤矿从业人员持证上岗;政府出台政策,强制煤矿企业开展职工岗位技术培训和安全培训等4个方面着手,切实提高煤矿从业人员的整体素质,减少煤矿事故的发生.     

Pesticide Impact Rating Index – A Pesticide Risk Indicator for Water Quality

Pesticide users, natural resource managers, regulators, government agencies and many others are concerned about the off-site impact of pesticides on the environment. Systematic methods of the assessment of potential risk of pesticides to environmental components can serve as valuable tools in decision making and policy formulation. Simple risk indicators have been developed which cover a range of scenarios such as toxicity to organisms, health of farm workers, consumer health, and residues in harvested produce. The authors have developed a software package named Pesticide Impact Rating Index (PIRI) that outputs an improved pesticide risk indicator for water quality. PIRI is a standalone, user-friendly, platform-independent program. It can be used to (i) rank pesticides in terms of their relative pollution potential to groundwater or surface water, and (ii) to compare different land uses in a catchment or at a regional scale in terms of their relative impact on water quality. It is based on pesticides use; the pathway through which the pesticides are released to the water resources (drift, runoff, erosion, leaching) and the value of the water resources threatened. Each component is quantified using pesticide characteristics (including toxicity to organisms at different trophic levels, i.e. fish, daphnia, algae, etc.), environmental and site conditions (e.g. organic carbon content of soil, water input, slope of land, soil loss, recharge rate, depth of water table, etc.). This paper describes two case studies of the application of PIRI in Australia. The comparison of the risk assessment by PIRI on these revealed that PIRI correctly estimated the pollution potential of pesticides in greater than 80% of cases. A GIS version of PIRI is described in a companion paper in this volume. An erratum to this article is available at .