Famine forecasting; Prices and peasant behaviour in Northern Ethiopia

This paper, completed in January 1984, begins by briefly outlining the contrasting views of price behaviour during the last Ethiopian famine (1972–1974) put forward by Seaman and Holt (1980) and Sen (1981). A hypothesis is developed to account for peasant behaviour and price responses under developing famine conditions. This is then tested with data recently made available. The paper concludes by summarizing the findings and their implications for famine forecasting, and argues that famine conditions in Northern Ethiopia are likely to worsen during 1984.     

Spontaneous resettlement after drought: An Ethiopian example*

Based upon two recent periods of fieldwork among a spontaneously resettled population of cattle herders in southwestern Ethiopia, this paper is an attempt to illustrate, by a particular case, the general proposition that external aid, if it is not to be counter-productive, must meet people's needs as they themselves define them. The people in question, the Mursi, have experienced, since 1970, their worst period of drought and hunger in living memory. They have responded to this experience with resilience and inventiveness and largely without external assistance. The paper concentrates on a recent, drought induced, migration of Mursi to higher land, outside their traditional territory, and shows how the migrants are adapting to a new way of life which brings them into direct conflict with some of their most cherished cultural traditions.     

The Ethiopian crisis of 1999-2000: lessons learned,questions unanswered

During 1999-2000, Ethiopia was brought to the edge of a major disaster, with some 10 million people estimated to be in need offood assistance at the height of the crisis. A repeat of the catastrophic famine of 1984-5 was avoided, but the numbers of people affected, the loss of life and the destruction of livelihoods made this one of the most serious crises in the Horn of Africa in the past 15 years. The humanitarian community has been slow to recognise the lessons of 1999-2000, and there have been surprisingly few attempts to conduct a serious, post-event evaluation of the overall crisis and response. The label famine averted' seems to summarise the crisis to the satisfaction of most parties involved. This paper reviews the crisis, the events that led up to it and the response effort. It examines thefactors that contributed to making this crisis so serious, in order to draw conclusions and note issues that are relevant to current thinking about disaster preparedness and response - in Ethiopia and elsewhere. Some of the lessons learned from the 1999-2000 crisis are not new. However, the veryfact that mistakes have been repeated should be a lesson to the humanitarian community.     

Humanitarian governance and resilience building: Ethiopia in comparative perspective

Humanitarian governance is usually understood according to the classic, Dunantist paradigm that accords central importance to international humanitarian agencies. However, this is increasingly paralleled by ‘resilience humanitarianism’ that focuses, among other things, on including national actors in humanitarian governance. This article views humanitarian governance as emerging through interactions between authorities, implementing agencies and communities. It is based on interactive ethnography in five countries by Partners for Resilience (PfR). Using the Theory of Change (ToC) tool, it analyses the various interpretations and priorities of actors involved in humanitarian problems, solutions and programme governance. For example, PfR had a ‘software’ focus, aiming to unlock communities’ potential for resilience, whereas communities and authorities preferred to receive tangible ‘hardware’ support. The findings highlight the crucial role of local authorities in shaping humanitarian aid. This is especially pertinent in view of the international agenda to localise aid, which requires the understanding and support of national actors in order to responsibly protect the vulnerable.     

Crop Failure in Dalocha, Ethiopia: A Participatory Emergency Response

This case study of an NGO's response to a food crisis due to crop failure focuses on the extent of active community participation at each stage of the project. With the current debate on the relationship between relief and development, and in particular the focus on encouraging more active community participation in relief responses, this study has relevance both in the Ethiopian context and beyond.
In this example the participation process was greatly facilitated by the prior relationship between the international NGO and the communities, and also by the high level of staff input into the project. Where resources or conditions are less favourable, as might be the case in similar responses by local NGOs or government agencies, the paper suggests that the participatory approach can be adapted or partially implemented and still result in a more effective and locally relevant operation.     

Spatial assessment of groundwater quality in Guna Tana landscape

This study focuses on investigating the quality of groundwater for irrigation and drinking water purposes. Spatial distribution of physicochemical and microbiological parameters was assessed from samples collected from springs, hand‐dug wells, and boreholes found the Guna Tana landscape. A total of 70 samples were considered for physical, chemical, and bacteriological water quality determination. The results revealed that most of the groundwater quality index (WQI) values lie between good and excellent. The maximum, minimum, mean, and standard deviation of each water quality parameter were prepared for evaluating groundwater quality. According to the WQI values, more than 83% of the water samples were classified as excellent water for drinking. More than 92% of the water samples showed low sodium hazards for irrigation and about 48% and 46% of the water samples were classified as within the excellent and good water classes for irrigation based on their electrical conductance levels. Therefore, the groundwater that is found in the Guna Tana landscape could be used for drinking and irrigation purposes without any advanced treatment.     

Thanks but no thanks: A new policy to reduce land conflict

Land conflicts in developing countries are costly both directly and through increased land degradation. An important policy goal is to create respect for borders. This often involves mandatory, expensive interventions. We propose a new policy design, which in theory promotes neighborly relations at low cost. A salient feature is the option to by-pass regulation through consensus. The key idea combines the insight that social preferences transform social dilemmas into coordination problems with the logic of forward induction. As a first, low-cost pass at empirical evaluation, we conduct an experiment among farmers in the Ethiopian highlands, a region exhibiting features typical of countries where borders are often disputed.     

Daily dietary fluoride intake in rural villages of the Ethiopian Rift Valley

Dental and skeletal fluorosis is widespread in the Ethiopian Rift Valley region. Drinking water has been considered the main reason for the development of fluorosis, but dietary intake may also be a contributor in areas with high concentration of fluoride in water, soil, and biota. The purpose of this study is to assess the total daily dietary fluoride intake by adults in a rural part of the Ethiopian Rift Valley. The food, beverage, and water samples were collected from selected households of three neighboring villages with similar dietary pattern, but with different fluoride content in their water sources. Village A uses water with 1.0 mg L^?1 fluoride, village B uses water with 3.0 mg L^?1 fluoride, and village C uses water with 11.5 mg L^?1 fluoride both for food preparation and for drinking. The level of fluoride was determined in all food ingredients, in the prepared food, beverages, and in the water used for food preparation and drinking. Recipe and food frequency questionnaires were used to gather household food preparation and consumption patterns. An alkali fusion method was used for digestion of food samples and for subsequent determination of fluoride with ion-selective electrode. The daily fluoride intake varied depending on its concentration in the water used for cooking and drinking. In households using water with 1 mg L^?1, 3 mg L^?1, and 11.5 mg L^?1 fluoride, the total personal intake was found to be 10.5, 16.6, and 35.3 mg d^?1, respectively. Contribution of the water to the daily fluoride intake was 33%, 58%, and 86%, respectively. Even in households using water containing fluoride at a concentration of 1 mg L^?1, the daily intake was higher than the recommended safe intake of 1.5–4.0 mg d^?1 for adults, which indicates that the fluoride intake through food may cause health risks. Minimizing the fluoride concentration in water to the lowest possible level will greatly reduce the daily intake. The form of fluorine (organic or inorganic) in the food items and the associated health risk factors need further investigation.     

The role of social learning for soil conservation: the case of Amba Zuria land management,Ethiopia

Social learning plays key roles in sustainable natural resource management; however, studies on its role show mixed results. Even though most current studies highlight positive outcomes, there are also negative effects of social learning with respect to natural resource management. This paper explores the influence of social learning outcomes on the adoption of soil conservation practices in Amba Zuria, Ethiopia. Data were collected through semi-structured interviews, group discussions and in workshops. The interviews were transcribed and analysed with the qualitative data analysis software ATLAS.ti. In addition, a review of pertinent documents and literature complements the analysis. We found that social learning results in positive outcomes in interactions among the actors, broader understanding on soil conservation, trust and mutual understanding, and the creation of opportunities to apply both indigenous and scientific knowledge. These outcomes, in turn, foster the adoption of stone terraces to conserve soils. No such positive results were found for farmers who were not involved in the learning process and who did not adopt stone terraces. The non-adoption can partly be explained by their exclusion from sharing the positive outcomes of social learning. The study also shows limitations related to the short duration of the learning platforms, insufficient representation of women and irregular patterns of learning schedules. Hence, Ethiopian soil conservation strategies should put emphasis on social learning in order to strengthen the collective processes of soil conservation measures.     

Climate variability,political crises,and historical population displacements in Ethiopia

Abstract

El Niño events from the 1970s through the 1990s caused extended droughts in Ethiopia. These droughts were followed by famine and political turmoil that resulted in radical changes of government, secession, and a massive program of population redistribution. Cartographic analysis of Ethiopian census data from 1984 and 1994 shows changes in demographic patterns. The consequences of government-imposed migration policies, whose catalyst was the climate variability caused by repeated El Niño events, were changes in the ethnic composition of certain Ethiopian regions and changes in the geographic pattern of population growth.