Rethinking assessment of success of mitigation strategies for elephant-induced crop damage

Crop damage is the most common impact of negative interactions between people and elephants and poses a significant threat to rural livelihoods and conservation efforts. Numerous approaches to mitigate and prevent crop damage have been implemented throughout Africa and Asia. Despite the documented high efficacy of many approaches, losses remain common, and in many areas, damage is intensifying. We examined the literature on effectiveness of crop-damage-mitigation strategies and identified key gaps in evaluations. We determined there is a need to better understand existing solutions within affected communities and to extend evaluations of effectiveness beyond measurement of efficacy to include rates of and barriers to adoption. We devised a conceptual framework for evaluating effectiveness that incorporates the need for increased emphasis on adoption and can be used to inform the design of future crop-damage mitigation assessments for elephants and conflict species more widely. The ability to prevent crop loss in practice is affected by both the efficacy of a given approach and rates of uptake among target users. We identified the primary factors that influence uptake as local attitudes, sustainability, and scalability and examined each of these factors in detail. We argue that even moderately efficacious interventions may make significant progress in preventing damage if widely employed and recommend that wherever possible scientists and practitioners engage with communities to build on and strengthen existing solutions and expertise. When new approaches are required, they should align with local attitudes and fit within limitations on labor, financial requirements, and technical capacity.     

A hybrid model for human factor analysis in process accidents: FBN-HFACS

Human factors are the largest contributing factors to unsafe operation of the chemical process systems. Conventional methods of human factor assessment are often static, unable to deal with data and model uncertainty, and to consider independencies among failure modes. To overcome the above limitations, this paper presents a hybrid dynamic human factor model considering Human Factor Analysis and Classification System (HFACS), intuitionistic fuzzy set theory, and Bayesian network. The model is tested on accident scenarios which have occurred in a hot tapping operation of a natural gas pipeline. The results demonstrate that poor occupational safety training, failure to implement risk management principles, and ignoring reporting unsafe conditions were the factors that contributed most failures causing accident. The potential risk-based safety measures for preventing similar accidents are discussed. The application of the model confirms its robustness in estimating impact rate (degree) of human factor induced failures, consideration of the conditional dependency, and a dynamic and flexible modelling structure.     

Using fuzzy set theory to address the uncertainty of susceptibility to drought

This paper presents the technical aspects of a new methodology for assessing the susceptibility of society to drought. The methodology consists of a combination of inference modelling and fuzzy logic applications. Four steps are followed: (1) model input variables are selected—these variables reflect the main factors influencing susceptibility in a social group, population or region, (2) fuzzification—the uncertainties of the input variables are made explicit by representing them as ‘fuzzy membership functions’, (3) inference modelling—the input variables are used to construct a model made up of linguistic rules, and (4) defuzzification—results from the model in linguistic form are translated into numerical form, also through the use of fuzzy membership functions. The disadvantages and advantages of this methodology became apparent when it was applied to the assessment of susceptibility from three disciplinary perspectives: Disadvantages include the difficulty in validating results and the subjectivity involved with specifying fuzzy membership functions and the rules of the inference model. Advantages of the methodology are its transparency, because all model assumptions have to be made explicit in the form of inference rules; its flexibility, in that informal and expert knowledge can be incorporated through ‘fuzzy membership functions’ and through the rules in the inference model; and its versatility, since numerical data can be converted to linguistic statements and vice versa through the procedures of ‘fuzzification’ and ‘defuzzification’.     

EFFECTS OF ADJACENT AGRICULTURAL ACTIVITIES AND WATERSHED CHARACTERISTICS ON STREAM MACROINVERTEBRATE COMMUNITIES1

Benthic macroinvertebrate communities in streams adjacent to cornfields, streams where cows had unrestricted access, and reference locations without agriculture were compared to examine the effects of local land use and land use/land cover in the watershed. At each local site, macroinvertebrates and a variety of habitat parameters were measured upstream, adjacent, downstream, and farther downstream of the local land use. A geographic information system (GIS) was used to calculate drainage basin area, land use/land cover percentages in each basin, and the distance from sample sites to the stream source. Three‐way analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) tests with date, site type, and sampling location as main effects were used to explore differences in macroinvertebrate metrics using median substrate size, percent hay/pasture area, and stream depth as covariates. The covariates significantly improved model fit and showed that multiple contributing factors influence community composition. Local impacts were greatest at sites where cows had access, probably because of sedimentation and embeddedness in the substrate. Differences between the upstream and the adjacent and downstream locations were not as great as expected, perhaps because upstream recolonization was reduced by agricultural impacts or because of differences in the intensity or proximity of agriculture to riparian areas in the watershed. The results underscore the importance of both local and watershed factors in controlling stream community composition.     

Study on Assessing Economic Vulnerability of Small Island Regions

The main purpose of this study is to assess economic vulnerability of small island development regions as part of their sustainability constraints. By combining economic and environmental time series data, we assessed a composite index of economic vulnerability which is constructed from three exogenous variables, namely economic exposure, economic remoteness, and economic impact of environmental and natural disasters. We used the Amami Islands, Kagoshima Prefecture, Japan as the case studies for this paper.The results indicated that using a gross island products based valuation index, Kikaijima is the most vulnerable island in the Amami Islands with a composite economic vulnerability index (CEVI) value of 0.678, while by using a per capita based index, Okinoerabujima is considered the most vulnerable island with a CEVI value of 0.680. From the results we also revealed that smaller islands have relative higher vulnerability than the bigger one, which also confirms some previous country-level vulnerability studies.However, it is matter of fact that some islands that have relatively high vulnerability also have good economic performance as shown by their per capita income. In this regard, it can be argued that the success of these small islands could have been achieved in spite of and not because of their inherent vulnerability conditions as an indicator of sustainability constraint. Regarding these findings, we also examined a comparison between vulnerability results and the preliminary concept of an island's resilience in order to capture another perspective on sustainability assessment in a small island region.     

Factors affecting river health and its assessment over broad geographic ranges: the Western Australian experience

AusRivAS is an Australia-wide program that measures river condition using predictive models to compare the macroinvertebrate families occurring at a river site with those expected if the site were in natural condition. Results of assessment of 685 sites across all major rivers in Western Australia are presented. Most rivers were in relatively natural condition in the northern half of the state where the human population is low and pastoralism is the major land use. In the south, where the human population is higher and agriculture is more intensive, rivers were mostly more disturbed. AusRivAS assessment produced some erroneous results in rivers of the south-west cropping zone because of the lack of appropriate reference site groups and biased distribution of sampling sites. Collecting low numbers of animals from many forested streams, because of low stream productivity and samples that were difficult to sort, also affected assessments. Overall, however, AusRivAs assessment identified catchment processes that were inimical to river health. These processes included salinisation, high nutrient and organic loads, erosion and loss of riparian vegetation. River regulation, channel modification and fire were also associated with river degradation. As is the case with other assessment methods, one-off sampling at individual sites using AusRivAS may be misleading. Seasonal drought, in particular, may make it difficult to relate conditions at the time of sampling to longer-term river health. AusRivAS has shown river condition in Western Australia is not markedly different from other parts of Australia which, as a whole, lacks the substantial segments of severely degraded river systems reported in England.     

Evolution of a Mediterranean Coastal Zone: Human Impacts on the Marine Environment of Cape Creus

This study presents an integrated analysis of the evolution of the marine environment and the human uses in Cape Creus, a Mediterranean coastal area where intense commercial fisheries and recreational uses have coexisted over the last fifty years. The investigation synthesizes the documented impacts of human activities on the marine environment of Cap de Creus and integrates them with new data. In particular, the evolution of vulnerable, exploited species is used to evaluate the fishing impacts. The effects of area protection through the establishment of a marine reserve in the late 1990s and the potential climate change impacts are also considered. The evolution of the human uses is marked by the increasing socioeconomic importance of recreational activities (which affect species and habitats) in detriment to artisanal and red coral fisheries (which principally affect at a species level). Overall, populations of sedentary, vulnerable exploited species, hard sessile benthic invertebrates, and ecologically fragile habitats, such as seagrass meadows, the coralligenous and infralittoral algal assemblages have been the most negatively impacted by anthropogenic activities. Albeit human uses currently constitute the largest negative impact on the marine environment of Cap de Creus, climate change is emerging as a key factor that could have considerable implications for the marine environment and tourism activities. The establishment of the marine reserve appears to have had little socioeconomic impact, but there is some evidence that it had some positive biological effects on sedentary, littoral fishes. Results demonstrate that the declaration of a marine reserve alone does not guarantee the sustainability of marine resources and habitats but should be accompanied with an integrated coastal management plan.     

Community evacuation following a chlorine release, Mississippi

On 7th September 1986, four miles north of Collins, Mississippi, a train transporting chlorine derailed. Two cars ruptured and gas escaped. As a result, 100 families were evacuated. To study the evacuation process, we conducted person-to-person interviews with sixty-two families staying in the evacuation center. Only 52.5% of the families received their first directive to evacuate directly from police or other officials. Delays in evacuating tended to be shorter when people were warned by the police and were told the reason for evacuating. Lack of personal transportation and preexisting health problems resulted in delays in evacuation. Concerns about evacuation included fear of looting, lack of a place to go, lack of transportation, difficulty in moving with children and elderly persons, and the need to take care of pets. One third of the interviewees reported feeling panic. Community evacuation procedures would be improved if: (1) officials contact all households directly; (2) the warning message addresses people's concerns; and (3) transportation is provided.     

Sharing the geo-Referenced Results of Climate Change Impact Research

The Prairie Adaptation Research Collaborative (PARC) has implemented an Internet Map Server (IMS) at the PARC web site (www.parc.ca) to 1) disseminate the geo-referenced results of PARC sponsored research on climate change impacts and adaptation, and 2) address data, information and knowledge management within the PARC network of researchers and partners. PARC facilitates interdisciplinary research on adaptation to the impacts of climate change in the Canadian Prairie Provinces. The web site is intended as a platform for sharing information and encouraging discussion of climate change impacts and adaptation. The IMS enables scientists and stakeholders to apply simple climate change scenarios to geo-referenced biophysical and social data, and dynamically create maps that display the geographic distribution of potential impacts of climate change. With a limited capacity for spatial analysis, most geo-processing and the climate impact modeling is done offline within a GIS environment. The IMS will serve the output from climate impact models, such that the model results can be customized by the web site user and be most readily applied to the planning and analysis of adaptation strategies.     

Biological complexity confounds the separation of point- and non-point sources of human impact on the natural world

Identifying process from pattern is one of the most vexing tasks inenvironmental monitoring. Given information on the distribution of speciesin a pre-defined area, together with comprehensive data on how environmentalconditions in that area have altered through time, is it possible toidentify the factors controlling the species‘ layout? Here, the practicalsignificance of this quandary is demonstrated using a series ofenvironmentally-degraded coastal lagoons in New South Wales. The TuggerahLakes (33°17′S,151°30′E) have over the last 50 yearsexperienced significant changes in species‘ distributions. Seagrasses,macroalgae, phytoplankton, molluscs, prawns and the jellyfish Catostylus mosaicus have altered in spatial pattern. Two human activitieshave been blamed for these perturbations: (1) agricultural clearance ofnative vegetation from the catchment, with associated input of top-soil andnutrients; (2) the commissioning of a coal-fired power station in 1967, withmassive uptake and recirculation of lake water for cooling purposes. In thispaper, spatial changes in macrophyte distributions over the last 50 yearsare reviewed in an attempt to identify the true source(s) of perturbation.The model adopted assumes that the power station is a point source of impactwhile nutrient inputs from the catchment are a diffuse source of impact;changes in species distributions can hypothetically be related back to thesesources according to whether they are localised or widespread. However,after a comprehensive analysis of available macrophyte data derived frominterviews, aerial photography and line transect methodologyies theconclusion is reached that changes in biogeographical pattern around theTuggerah Lakes cannot be attributed to specific anthropogenic pressures atanything beyond the coarsest of levels. This is considered to be the normfor most coastal management situations where natural background variation(’noise‘) and the complexity of linkages between physical, chemical andbiological components confounds the identification of causal relationships.The practical implications of this conclusion are discussed in the contextof litigation and remedial management design. Emphasis is placed on theneed to adopt an adaptive approach to estuarine management, incorporatingexplicit recognition of the limitations of available data, and to developnew techniques for identifying cause-effect relationships.