Predicting land cover using GIS, Bayesian and evolutionary algorithm methods

Modelling land cover change from existing land cover maps is a vital requirement for anyone wishing to understand how the landscape may change in the future. In order to test any land cover change model, existing data must be used. However, often it is not known which data should be applied to the problem, or whether relationships exist within and between complex datasets. Here we have developed and tested a model that applied evolutionary processes to Bayesian networks. The model was developed and tested on a dataset containing land cover information and environmental data, in order to show that decisions about which datasets should be used could be made automatically. Bayesian networks are amenable to evolutionary methods as they can be easily described using a binary string to which crossover and mutation operations can be applied. The method, developed to allow comparison with standard Bayesian network development software, was proved capable of carrying out a rapid and effective search of the space of possible networks in order to find an optimal or near-optimal solution for the selection of datasets that have causal links with one another. Comparison of land cover mapping in the North-East of Scotland was made with a commercial Bayesian software package, with the evolutionary method being shown to provide greater flexibility in its ability to adapt to incorporate/utilise available evidence/knowledge and develop effective and accurate network structures, at the cost of requiring additional computer programming skills. The dataset used to develop the models included GIS-based data taken from the Land Cover for Scotland 1988 (LCS88), Land Capability for Forestry (LCF), Land Capability for Agriculture (LCA), the soil map of Scotland and additional climatic variables.     

Aspects of planning in Scotland: an introductory paper

This paper provides an outline of the development planning and development control systems which operate in Scotland, illustrating that while they share common principles and objectives with the equivalent systems in England and Wales there are a number of important differences both in law and more especially in practice to be appreciated. Future changes are outlined both in relation to the statutory planning system as well as in the broader fields of housing, economic development and the countryside.     

The role of rural communities in the transition to a low-carbon Scotland: a review

The Scottish Government is committed to carbon reduction targets which are the most ambitious across the devolved administrations of the UK. Whilst Scotland operates within broader international and UK policy contexts, it has developed particular programmes and approaches to engage communities in the transition towards low-carbon futures. Rural areas have a role in the transition to a low-carbon Scotland; however, beyond land use and agriculture contributions, little research has explored the “rural” dimension of “low-carbon” transitions. The paper presents a policy and literature review relating to the low-carbon agenda in Scotland. It reflects on Scottish low-carbon policy and governance, the positioning of “rural communities” within this, and the opportunities and challenges this might present. Based on this, we develop an understanding of how rural communities may contribute to a low-carbon Scotland and identify a future research agenda to explore in more detail the nature and relative effectiveness of diverse governance structures to support this.     

How Resilient Are Europe’s Inshore Fishing Communities to Change? Differences Between the North and the South

One would hypothesize that the Common Fisheries Policy, as the umbrella framework for fisheries management in the EU would have the greatest impact on fishers’ communities across Europe. There are, however, biological, economic, social, and political factors, which vary among fishing communities that can affect how these communities react to changes. This paper explores the links between institutional arrangements and ecological dynamics in two European inshore fisheries socio-ecological systems, using a resilience framework. The Mediterranean small-scale fishers do not seem to have been particularly affected by the Common Fisheries Policy regulations but appear affected by competition with the politically strong recreational fishers and the invasion of the rabbit fish population. The inshore fishers along the East coast of Scotland believe that their interests are not as sufficiently protected as the interests of their offshore counterpart. Decisions and initiatives at global, EU, and sometimes national level, tend to take into account those fisheries sectors which have a national economic importance. A socio-ecological analysis can shift the focus from biological and economic aspects to more sustainable long-term delivery of environmental benefits linked to human wellbeing.     

Measuring and assessing indicators of sustainable development for Scotland: a pilot survey

In this paper, we review three broad classes of indicators of sustainable development. These are economic, ecological and sociopolitical indicators. We then report the results of a pilot study which measured five different indicators for Scotland: an approximate environmentally-adjusted Net National Product; the Pearce-Atkinson Measure; Net Primary Production; Appropriated Carrying Capacity; and the Index of Sustainable Economic Welfare. We find that not all indicators point in the same direction, but a majority suggest that Scotland is at best only marginally sustainable. Data limitations, however, suggest a degree of caution in the interpretation of these results.     

A critique of ethical and social issues of genetically modified crops

SUMMARY

The ethical and social issues of genetically modified crops as reported by the Nuffield Bioethics Committee are summarised. A critique of their findings is presented. It is argued that the apparent benefits are outweighed by the ecological, social and economic costs, and that the yields of some genetically modified crops are poorer when compared to conventional species. Furthermore, the current regulations are far too lax for consumer protection. There is an urgent need for a critical and disinterested review of the scientific basis of the research.     

Parks,streets and “just empty space”: the local environmental experiences of children and young people in a Scottish study

This article is concerned with the nature and significance of inequality in the environmental experience of children and young people. We argue that research in this area needs to widen in perspective and address a complex set of environmental attributes that matter to children and young people, and to their development. Discussing a study conducted in three differing locations in Scotland, the paper examines the local places that were important to children and young people, and the factors that affected the benefits they derived from them. The results illustrate that unequal experiences arise partly through different material provision of environmental goods, but also issues of quality and maintenance, and that relational dynamics have a crucial role. An important concern is not just the quality of experiences in the present, but the effects that environmental experiences in early life have on skills and capacities taken forward into adulthood.     

Negotiating energy democracy in practice: governance processes in community energy projects

There is a growing ‘energy democracy’ (ED) movement which regards the transition to renewable energy as an opportunity for socio-economic transformation, as well as technological innovation. The literature on ED tends to associate greater democratic control of energy systems with increased community control over the means of energy generation and distribution. Nonetheless, this literature often assumes rather than demonstrates that the forms of governance it promotes are more democratic than the status quo. This analysis contributes to the emerging field of ED by assessing the complex and varied ways in which communities in Scotland practise energy governance. By focusing on three key governance processes (decision-making, accountability and dispute resolution), the importance of local contexts for the establishment and negotiation of democratic practices is demonstrated. This local specificity, however, also raises further questions regarding the universal applicability of the ED concept.     

Nitrate levels and the age of groundwater from the Upper Devonian sandstone aquifer in Fife,Scotland

The tritium concentrations in 13 groundwater samples from boreholes throughout the Upper Devonian sandstone aquifer of Fife have been measured. Due to atmospheric variations in tritium concentrations over the last century, this radioactive tracer can be used as a groundwater age indicator. In this study, the groundwater tritium concentrations have allowed for the area to be divided into three zones, and the variable chemistry of the groundwater samples, including the problem of recent elevated nitrate levels in the Fife Aquifer, has been interpreted in terms of their relative ages.     

Using GIS for siting artificial reefs—Data issues, problems and solutions: ‘Real World’ to ‘Real World’

As GIS becomes an increasingly more ‘user-friendly’ tool, and more people recognize the benefits of the technology in their work environment, inevitably greater use will be made of it for a wide range of applications. The ease with which a GIS can now be used often overshadows the complexity underlying this technology and the potential difficulties that can (and do) arise when this is not fully understood. In practice, there are two routes open to the application of GIS technology for environmental studies. The first is to commission new data for the research. The second is to make use of existing data sets. Data are at the heart of any GIS application. A detailed knowledge about the data sources, the method of collection, capture, scale and sampling strategy, especially if the data are to be used in any analysis, modelling or simulation studies, is fundamental to any application. Unfortunately, information about data (metadata) is seldom available, especially for archival or legacy data sets. Furthermore, although it is now relatively easy to acquire digital data, to input, store, manipulate and display this data, and to output the results of any GIS analysis in the practical sense, little consideration is given to the problems associated with data quality and how this will ultimately affect present and future analyses and use of the output for planning and decision-making. The need to raise awareness about data quality for applications is set in the context of the development of an environmental database for the Moray Firth. Northeast Scotland, and more specifically the use of selected data sets from the database to aid in the proposed siting of an artificial reef. Using this example, this contribution explores the problems associated with the use of both existing analog and digital data sets as the basis for environmental applications, the problems of data acquisition, data quality, data standards, error and how these can affect the operational use of the data in GIS analyses. The solution to such problems appears to lie with improved error assessment and reporting. The outcome of this contribution is an attempt to offer guidance and solutions to researchers and applications specialists undertaking similar studies, by suggesting to what extent studies, such as the artificial reef siting, can safely make use of existing data sets without risking the problems associated with judgements based on inadequate information, and generated or inherent error.