COMPARISON OF MODELS FOR ESTIMATING FLOOD QUANTILES IN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND VERMONT1

We develop and compare three regression models for estimating flood quantiles at ungaged stream reaches in New Hampshire and Vermont. These models emerge from systematic analysis and validation of relations between flood magnitude and six candidate predictors reflecting basin size, topography, and climate and channel size at 36 gaging stations with record lengths exceeding 20 years. Of the candidate predictors, bank full width is most highly correlated with flood magnitude and the best prediction equation is based on width. Thus channel geometry is closely related to the current hydrologic regime in spite of geologically recent glaciation and apparently non-alluvial bank materials. We also develop models that use information obtainable from maps or GIS. The best of these uses drainage area and drainage-basin elevation as predictors, but it is substantially less precise than the width-based relation. A third relation using only drainage area as a predictor is even less precise but may be useful for some purposes. No other single predictors or combinations yielded useful predictions, although some had been included in previously-established models for the region. Model comparison included examination of residuals generated by regression using one-at-a-time suppression of data points and comparison with precision obtainable with gaging records of varying lengths.     

TOWARDS CHARACTERIZING AND PLANNTNG FOR DROUGHT IN VERMONT‐PART II: POLICY IMPLICATIONS1

ABSTRACT: Vermont is one of approximately half a dozen states for which no official drought mitigation plan exists. Given the recurring nature of this natural hazard, current contingency measures should be expanded upon into a coherent mitigation framework. The types of drought and impacts resulting from the 1998 to 1999 event were the focus of a previous article in this volume. The present article builds on the understanding of drought characteristics specific to the Vermont context and introduces the rationale behind a proposed drought planning framework. Pivotal organizations and institutions that should be involved in this process are also presented.     

A Multispecies Framework for Landscape Conservation Planning

Abstract: Rapidly changing landscapes have spurred the need for quantitative methods for conservation assessment and planning that encompass large spatial extents. We devised and tested a multispecies framework for conservation planning to complement single‐species assessments and ecosystem‐level approaches. Our framework consisted of 4 elements: sampling to effectively estimate population parameters, measuring how human activity affects landscapes at multiple scales, analyzing the relation between landscape characteristics and individual species occurrences, and evaluating and comparing the responses of multiple species to landscape modification. We applied the approach to a community of terrestrial birds across 25,000 km² with a range of intensities of human development. Human modification of land cover, road density, and other elements of the landscape, measured at multiple spatial extents, had large effects on occupancy of the 67 species studied. Forest composition within 1 km of points had a strong effect on occupancy of many species and a range of negative, intermediate, and positive associations. Road density within 1 km of points, percent evergreen forest within 300 m, and distance from patch edge were also strongly associated with occupancy for many species. We used the occupancy results to group species into 11 guilds that shared patterns of association with landscape characteristics. Our multispecies approach to conservation planning allowed us to quantify the trade‐offs of different scenarios of land‐cover change in terms of species occupancy.     

APPLICATION OF KRIGING TO ESTIMATING MEAN ANNUAL PRECIPITATION IN A REGION OF OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCE1

ABSTRACT: Estimates of mean annual precipitation (MAP) over areas are the starting point for all computations of water and chemical balances for drainage basins and surface water bodies. Any errors in the estimates of MAP are propagated through the balance computations. These errors can be due to: (1) failures of individual gages to collect the amount of precpitation that actually falls; (2) operator errors; and (3) failure of the raingage network to adequately sample the region of interest. This paper attempts to evaluate the last of these types of error by applying kriging in two different approaches to estimating MAP in New Hampshire and Vermont, USA. The data base is the 1951–1980 normal precipitation at 120 raingages in the two states and in adjacent portions of bordering states and provinces. In the first approach, kriging is applied directly to the MAP values, while in the second, kriging is applied to a “precipitation delivery factor” that represents the MAP with the orographic effect removed. The first approach gives slightly better kriged estimates of MAP at seven validation stations that were not included in the original analysis, but results in an error surface that is highly contorted and in larger maximum errors over most of the region. The second approach had a considerably smoother error surface and, thus, is generally preferable as a basis for point and areal estimates of MAP. MAP estimates in the region have 95 percent confidence intervals of about 20 cm/yr at low and moderate elevations, and up to 35 cm/yr at high elevations. These uncertainties amount to about 20 percent of estimated MAP values.     

TESTS OF THE CREAMS MODEL ON AGRICULTURAL FIELDS IN VERMONT1

ABSTRACT: The computer model, CREAMS, has been developed for field-sized agricultural areas to aid in best management practices evaluation and planning. A test of CREAMS was performed by comparing monthly observed and simulated values for runoff, sediment, and phosphorus exports from two agricultural fields in Vermont to determine the applicability of the model in cold climates. Water quality samples were collected from field runoff and analyzed for both total suspended solids and total phosphorus. Generally, exports were overestimated during low flow months and underestimated during high flow months. Significant r²values (p <0.05), ranging from 0.78 to 0.90, between simulated and observed data were found for all comparisons except for sediment export from one field. Comparisons of the slopes of the regressions between observed and simulated values and the ideal slope of one using t-tests revealed significant differences between simulated and observed monthly runoff, sediment, and phosphorus exports. It is postulated that this lack of adequate prediction could be attributed to the use of average monthly, instead of daily, temperature and solar radiation in calculations of evapotranspiration and snowmelt, and the use of static parameter values for parameters that vary seasonally.     

Role of wetlands in reducing phosphorus loading to surface water in eight watersheds in the Lake Champlain Basin

A landscape-level approach was applied to eight rural watersheds to assess the role that wetlands play in reducing phosphorus loading to surface waters in the Lake Champlain Basin. Variables summarizing various characteristics of wetlands within a watershed were calculated using a geographic information system and then compared to measured phosphorus loading through multiple regression analyses. The inclusion of a variable based on the area of riparian wetlands located along low- and medium-order streams in conjunction with the area of agricultural and nonwetland forested lands explained 88% of the variance in phosphorus loading to surface waters. The best fit model coefficients (P_load = 0.86Ag + 0.64For – 30Ripwet + 160) suggest that a hectare of riparian wetland may be many times more important in reducing phosphorus than an agricultural hectare is in producing phosphorus. These results provide additional support for the concept that protection of riparian wetlands is an important management strategy for controlling stream water quality in multiuse landscapes.     

Using GIS to Identify Functionally Significant Wetlands in the Northeastern United States

/ Of the several automated wetland assessment methods currently available, none are comprehensive in considering all of the primary functions a wetland can perform. We developed a methodology particularly suited to the Northeastern United States that enumerates spatial predictors of wetland function for three primary wetland functions: flood flow alteration, surface water quality improvement, andwildlife habitat. Predictors were derived from several wetland assessment techniques and directly from the literature on wetland structure and function. The methodology was then automated using a Geographic Information System (GIS). The resulting Automated Assessment Method for Northeastern Wetlands (AMNEW) consists of a suite of eight Arc Macro Language (AML) programs that run in the ARC/INFO GRID module. Using remotely sensed land use information and digital elevation models (DEMs), AMNEW produces three separate grids of wetlands that perform each function. The method was tested on four watersheds in Vermont's Lake Champlain Basin. Results and preliminary verification indicate that the method can successfully identify those wetlands in the Northeastern region that have the potential to be functionally important.     

Discourses of Place: Environmental Interpretation about Vermont Forests

Motivated by a lack of scholarly attention to the substance of interpretive messages and materials, this study examines discursive aspects of interpretative brochures available at forest recreation and tourism sites in Vermont, United States. Directive statements that instruct and guide visitor experiences—and the discourses to which they contribute—were analyzed for content, form, and meaning. Across the interpretive brochures, four broad discourses were identified: the natural forest, the recreational forest, the productive forest, and the dependent forest. Consideration of intertextuality revealed a fifth, hybrid discourse that linked forests to meanings of Vermont as a distinctive place. The convergence of these discourses across the set of brochures gives insight into the ways interpretation serves to both direct individual visitor experiences at particular sites, and to influence the development of larger-scale place meanings.     

TOWARDS CHARACTERIZING AND PLANNING FOR DROUGHT IN VERMONT‐PART I: A CLIMATOLOGICAL PERSPECTWE1

ABSTRACT: In the Green Mountain state of Vermont, droughts of one form or another and of varying intensities, seventies, and areal extent are not uncommon occurrences. The 1990s were marked by at least three drought events of which the 1998 to 1999 was the most recent. In spite of this recurrence, ongoing drought monitoring and mitigative planning efforts are not as advanced as they could be and no official drought plan exists for the state. This article is the first of two in this volume. It summarizes the cascade of drought types that impacted the state during the 1998 to 1999 episode. From a number of precipitation statistics and drought indices, fine spatial scales (county or better) were found to best capture the character of drought impacts, while the weekly time step is recommended as the temporal unit around which to base planning and monitoring efforts. The companion article outlines a possible framework for drought planning efforts and highlights key constituencies to be included in the process.     

A question of ‘fit’: local perspectives on top-down flood mitigation policies in Vermont

Despite consensus on the need to adapt to climate change, who should adapt, and how, remain open questions. While local-level actions are essential to adaptation, state and federal governments can play a substantial role in adaptation. In this paper, we investigate local perspectives on state-level flood mitigation policies in Vermont as a means of analysing what leads top-down adaptations to be effective in mobilizing local action. Drawing on interviews with town officials, we delineate local-level perspectives on Vermont's top-down policies and use those perspectives to develop a conceptual framework that presents the ‘fit’ between top-down policies and the local-level context as comprised of three components: Receptivity, Ease of Participation, and Design. We explain how these components and their interactions influence local-level action. This analysis points to how careful consideration of the components of ‘fit’ may lead to greater local-level uptake of top-down adaptation policies.