A stochastic approach for risk analysis in vapor cloud explosion

A stochastic approach for evaluating the risk of vapor cloud explosions is proposed in this work. The proposed methodology aims to incorporate the effect of uncertainty into the risk analysis to produce a better overall view for the risk. Some stochastic variables are used to estimate the probability of vapor cloud explosions: frequency of the release, the probability of not having an immediate ignition, the probability of delayed ignition and the probability of a vapor cloud explosion given a delayed ignition, as well as different possible meteorological conditions. These stochastic variables are represented with probability distribution curves. Different curves for the frequencies of releases from process equipment types (steel process pipes, flanges, manual valves, actuated valves, etc.), different equipment diameters and different leak sizes are also used in this analysis. Monte Carlo simulation is performed to obtain the risk as a probability distribution using the Analytic Solver Platform. Then the risk distribution curve obtained by Monte Carlo simulation is used to estimate the probability of satisfying the risk tolerance criterion.     

洪涝灾害评价的威布尔模型

首次将威布尔分布用于淮河流域水灾成灾面积研究,揭示了淮河流域洪涝灾害成灾面积形成的 内在规律,进而利用河南、安徽、江苏和山东4省的各自灾度对淮河流域的灾害风险建立了线性回归模型.实证分析表明,本方法切实可行,特别适用于大样本计算.     

千岛湖溶解氧的动态分布特征及其影响因素分析

基于2011~2012年1~12月千岛湖6个站点的溶解氧浓度实时监测数据,分析了千岛湖溶解氧的垂直分布以及时空分布特征,并探讨了影响水体溶解氧动态分布特征的影响因子.结果表明,溶解氧分布特征有明显的垂向差异以及季节差异.冬季,平均溶解氧值较高,除大坝前站点,其余各站点溶解氧无显著垂向差异;夏季,溶解氧垂向差异显著大于春秋两季.水深较深的小金山、三潭岛和大坝前站点其夏季溶解氧最大值出现在真光层,分别达到11.59、12.52和10.96 mg·L-1.千岛湖表层溶解氧最大值出现在春季,而最小值出现在秋季.相关性分析结果表明,溶解氧与水温、pH、叶绿素a浓度的相关性存在季节性差异.夏季,水温与溶解氧存在极其显著的线性相关,温度热力分层是影响溶解氧在夏季垂直分布的关键因素.春夏季,pH、叶绿素a浓度与溶解氧的相关系数较高,主要与浮游植物光合作用有关.     

春、夏季长江口及其邻近海域溶解N2O的分布和海-气交换通量

分别于2012年3月和7月对长江口及其邻近海域进行了调查,对水体中溶解氧化亚氮(N2O)的分布及海-气交换通量进行了研究.结果表明,春季长江口及其邻近海域表层海水中溶解N2O浓度范围为9.34~49.08 nmol·L-1,平均值为(13.27±6.40)nmol·L-1.夏季表层溶解N2O浓度范围为7.27~27.81 nmol·L-1、平均值为(10.62±5.03)nmol·L-1.两航次表、底层海水中溶解N2O浓度相差不大.长江口溶解N2O浓度由近岸向外海逐渐降低,受陆源输入影响显著.溶解N2O浓度高值出现在长江口最大浑浊带附近,这主要是由于水体中较高的硝化速率造成的.温度是影响N2O分布的另一个重要因素,对溶解N2O浓度有双重作用.春季和夏季表层海水中N2O饱和度范围分别为86.9%~351.3%和111.7%~396.0%,平均值分别为(111.5±41.4)%和(155.9±68.4)%,大部分站位处于过饱和状态.利用LM86、W92和RC01公式分别计算了长江口及其邻近海域N2O的海-气交换通量,春季分别为(3.2±10.9)、(5.5±19.3)和(12.2±52.3)μmol·(m2·d)-1,夏季分别为(7.3±12.4)、(12.7±20.4)和(20.4±35.9)μmol·(m2·d)-1,初步估算出长江口及其邻近海域的年平均释放量分别为0.6×10-2Tg·a-1(LM86)、1.1×10-2Tg·a-1(W92)、2.0×10-2Tg·a-1(RC01).长江口及其邻近海域虽然只占全球海洋总面积的0.02%,但其释放的N2O占全球海洋释放量的0.06%,表明长江口及其邻近海域是产生和释放N2O的活跃区域.     

Spatial distribution of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and polybrominated biphenyl ethers (PBDEs) in an e-waste dismantling region in Southeast China: Use of apple snail (Ampullariidae) as a bioindicator

Fengjiang is a large e-waste dismantling site located in southeast China. In this paper, apple snail and soil samples were collected from this e-waste dismantling site and 25 vicinal towns to investigate the contamination status, spatial distributions and congener patterns of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and polybrominated biphenyl ethers (PBDEs). Total PCB concentrations in apple snails (3.78-1812 ng g⁻¹ dry weight (dw)) were significant higher than that in soil samples (0.48-90.1 ng g⁻¹ dw). PBDE (excluding BDE 209) concentrations in apple snail and soil samples ranged from 0.09 to 27.7 ng g⁻¹ dw and 0.06 to 31.2 ng g⁻¹ dw, respectively. Concentrations of PCBs and PBDEs in snails and soils correlated negatively with the distance from Fengjiang. Both the concentrations and profiles of the pollutants were significantly correlated (p < 0.05) between the snail and soil samples, indicating the suitability of apple snail as a reliable bioindicator for PCBs and PBDEs contamination in this region. Relatively high concentrations of PCBs and PBDEs at locations far from e-waste dismantling sites implied that these pollutants have been transported to surrounding regions.     

Long-Term Changes in Game Species Over a Long Period of Transformation in the Iberian Mediterranean Landscape

Agricultural change has transformed large areas of traditional farming landscapes, leading to important changes in the species community assemblages in most European countries. We suspect that the drastic changes in land-use that have occurred in Andalusia (southern Spain) over recent decades, may have affected the distribution and abundance of game species in this region. This article compares the distribution of the main game species in Andalusia during the 1960s and 1990s, using data from maps available from the Mainland Spanish Fish, Game and National Parks Service and from recent datasets on hunting yield distributions, respectively. Big-game and small-game species were significantly segregated in southern Spain during the 1990s, as two clearly independent chorotypes (groups of species whose abundances are similarly distributed) were obtained from the classification analysis. In contrast, big-game and small-game species were not significantly segregated several decades ago, when there was only one chorotype consisting of small-game species and wild boar. The other three ungulates did not constitute a significant chorotype, as they showed positive correlations with some species in the group mentioned above. These changes seem to be a consequence of the transformations that have occurred in the Iberian Mediterranean landscape over the last few decades. The abandoning of traditional activities, and the consequent formation of dense scrubland and woodland, has led to an expansion of big-game species, and a decrease of small-game species in mountain areas. Moreover, agricultural intensification has apparently depleted small-game species populations in some agricultural areas. On the other hand, the increasingly intensive hunting management could be artificially boosting this segregation between small-game and big-game species. Our results suggest that the conservation and regeneration of traditional agricultural landscapes (like those predominating in the 1960s) should be a priority for the conservation of small-game species.     

APPLICATION OF ADVANCES IN FLOOD FREQUENCY ANALYSIS1

ABSTRACT: Flood frequency analyses are frequently being made using widely available computer programs. Serious errors can result from blind acceptance of such results. Visual interpretation of observed flood series can be used for evaluation on frequency paper with compatible scales. Such frequency papers are presented in the paper. In ephemeral streams, more infrequent floods may constitute a separate set from the more frequent floods because (a) runoff producing storms cover only a portion of the contributing area, (b) transmission losses in the normally dry streambed may reduce the peak flow, and (c) some runoff may be stored in stock water ponds which therefore leads to partial area runoff. The Cunnane plotting position used in this paper is superior to the more widely used Weibull equation, having a mathematically sound basis for locating observed floods on an assumed probability.     

Lower Leg Injury Reference Values and Risk Curves from Survival Analysis for Male and Female Dummies: Meta-analysis of Postmortem Human Subject Tests

Objective: Derive lower leg injury risk functions using survival analysis and determine injury reference values (IRV) applicable to human mid-size male and small-size female anthropometries by conducting a meta-analysis of experimental data from different studies under axial impact loading to the foot–ankle–leg complex.

Methods: Specimen-specific dynamic peak force, age, total body mass, and injury data were obtained from tests conducted by applying the external load to the dorsal surface of the foot of postmortem human subject (PMHS) foot–ankle–leg preparations. Calcaneus and/or tibia injuries, alone or in combination and with/without involvement of adjacent articular complexes, were included in the injury group. Injury and noninjury tests were included. Maximum axial loads recorded by a load cell attached to the proximal end of the preparation were used. Data were analyzed by treating force as the primary variable. Age was considered as the covariate. Data were censored based on the number of tests conducted on each specimen and whether it remained intact or sustained injury; that is, right, left, and interval censoring. The best fits from different distributions were based on the Akaike information criterion; mean and plus and minus 95% confidence intervals were obtained; and normalized confidence interval sizes (quality indices) were determined at 5, 10, 25, and 50% risk levels. The normalization was based on the mean curve. Using human-equivalent age as 45 years, data were normalized and risk curves were developed for the 50th and 5th percentile human size of the dummies.

Results: Out of the available 114 tests (76 fracture and 38 no injury) from 5 groups of experiments, survival analysis was carried out using 3 groups consisting of 62 tests (35 fracture and 27 no injury). Peak forces associated with 4 specific risk levels at 25, 45, and 65 years of age are given along with probability curves (mean and plus and minus 95% confidence intervals) for PMHS and normalized data applicable to male and female dummies. Quality indices increased (less tightness-of-fit) with decreasing age and risk level for all age groups and these data are given for all chosen risk levels.

Conclusions: These PMHS-based probability distributions at different ages using information from different groups of researchers constituting the largest body of data can be used as human tolerances to lower leg injury from axial loading. Decreasing quality indices (increasing index value) at lower probabilities suggest the need for additional tests. The anthropometry-specific mid-size male and small-size female mean human risk curves along with plus and minus 95% confidence intervals from survival analysis and associated IRV data can be used as a first step in studies aimed at advancing occupant safety in automotive and other environments.     

千岛湖水体氮的垂向分布特征及来源解析

选取千岛湖水深0.2,5,10,20,30和40m处水样进行分析,利用氮氧同位素和稳定同位素模型（SIAR）研究千岛湖水体氮（N）的垂向分布特征,分析水体N的来源并计算各N源的贡献率.结果表明,硝酸盐（NO₃^-）和溶解性有机氮（DON）是千岛湖水体总溶解氮（TDN）的主要形式,分别占溶解态N的57.9%和39.7%.千岛湖水体δ¹⁵N-NO₃^-和δ¹⁸O-NO₃^-的平均值分别为4.5‰和4.3‰.上层水体（0~10m）中,硝化作用和浮游植物的同化作用共同控制水体N的形态组成和氮氧同位素值（δ¹⁵N-NO₃^-和δ¹⁸O-NO₃^-）的变化.中层水体（10~30m）中,硝化作用是主要的生物地球化学过程,使得水体NO₃^-含量增加而δ¹⁸O-NO₃^-值减小.底层水体（30~40m）受到硝化作用、底泥N释放和反硝化作用的共同影响.化肥是千岛湖水体NO₃^-的最主要来源,在S1和S2处的贡献率分别为51.9%和30.6%.新安江上游的农业面源污染使得S1处化肥贡献率远高于S2.土壤N是仅次于化肥的第二大水体NO₃^-来源,在S1和S2处的贡献率分别为17.8%和27.8%.此外,底泥对底层水体NO₃^-的贡献不可忽视.     

基于双参数威布尔分布的高强度铝合金材料腐蚀损伤分布动力学规律研究

目的研究高强度铝合金材料腐蚀损伤分布的动力学规律。方法通过统计高强度铝合金材料的蚀坑深度和直径,采用双参数威布尔分布进行拟合,提出以双参数威布尔分布中的两个参数α、β作为高强度铝合金材料腐蚀损伤分布的表征量,建立α、β随腐蚀时间增长的多种数学模型。结果α随腐蚀时间的增长而减小,β随腐蚀时间的增长而增大,并且分布参数均能很好地符合一阶指数函数模型。结论与实际蚀坑分布增长物理现象比较,α、β的变化趋势能够揭示出蚀坑分布随时间增长的变化过程,并且腐蚀损伤分布动力学规律能很好地符合一阶指数函数模型。