Estimating the normal background rate of species extinction

A key measure of humanity's global impact is by how much it has increased species extinction rates. Familiar statements are that these are 100–1000 times pre‐human or background extinction levels. Estimating recent rates is straightforward, but establishing a background rate for comparison is not. Previous researchers chose an approximate benchmark of 1 extinction per million species per year (E/MSY). We explored disparate lines of evidence that suggest a substantially lower estimate. Fossil data yield direct estimates of extinction rates, but they are temporally coarse, mostly limited to marine hard‐bodied taxa, and generally involve genera not species. Based on these data, typical background loss is 0.01 genera per million genera per year. Molecular phylogenies are available for more taxa and ecosystems, but it is debated whether they can be used to estimate separately speciation and extinction rates. We selected data to address known concerns and used them to determine median extinction estimates from statistical distributions of probable values for terrestrial plants and animals. We then created simulations to explore effects of violating model assumptions. Finally, we compiled estimates of diversification—the difference between speciation and extinction rates for different taxa. Median estimates of extinction rates ranged from 0.023 to 0.135 E/MSY. Simulation results suggested over‐ and under‐estimation of extinction from individual phylogenies partially canceled each other out when large sets of phylogenies were analyzed. There was no evidence for recent and widespread pre‐human overall declines in diversity. This implies that average extinction rates are less than average diversification rates. Median diversification rates were 0.05–0.2 new species per million species per year. On the basis of these results, we concluded that typical rates of background extinction may be closer to 0.1 E/MSY. Thus, current extinction rates are 1,000 times higher than natural background rates of extinction and future rates are likely to be 10,000 times higher. Estimación de la Tasa Normal de Extinción de Especies     

高校应急管理全过程能力评价指标体系构建研究

高校应急管理全过程能力是高校公共安全的重要保障,建立科学合理的高校应急管理全过程能力评价体系是所有高校安全管理的重要课题。本文借鉴了国内外有关高校突发事件应急管理能力的研究成果,基于全过程理念,将高校应急管理过程分为事前预防与准备、事中处置和事后恢复三个阶段,因此高校应急管理能力应包括预防与准备能力、处置能力和恢复能力,从而构建出高校应急管理全过程能力的综合评价指标体系,体系包括3个一级指标,10个二级指标和33个三级指标,以期为提升高校应急管理水平提供有益的参考和借鉴。     

Photoreduction of parathion ethyl †

Photodegradation of parathion ethyl in presence of unsaturated biomolecules takes place by sufficient reduction of the phenyl nitro group. Main products are N,0‐dialkenyl hydroxylamino, cis/trans azo, and azoxy derivatives of parathion.     

Integrating soil carbon cycling with that of nitrogen and phosphorus in the watershed model SWAT: Theory and model testing

In this paper we describe and test a sub-model that integrates the cycling of carbon (C), nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) in the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) watershed model. The core of the sub-model is a multi-layer, one-pool soil organic carbon (S_C) algorithm, in which the decomposition rate of S_C and input rate to S_C (through decomposition and humification of residues) depend on the current size of S_C. The organic N and P fluxes are coupled to that of C and depend on the available mineral N and P, and the C:N and N:P ratios of the decomposing pools. Tillage explicitly affects the soil organic matter turnover rate through tool-specific coefficients. Unlike most models, the turnover of soil organic matter does not follow first order kinetics. Each soil layer has a specific maximum capacity to accumulate C or C saturation (S_x) that depends on texture and controls the turnover rate. It is shown in an analytical solution that S_x is a parameter with major influence in the model C dynamics. Testing with a 65-yr data set from the dryland wheat growing region in Oregon shows that the model adequately simulates the S_C dynamics in the topsoil (top 0.3 m) for three different treatments. Three key model parameters, the optimal decomposition and humification rates and a factor controlling the effect of soil moisture and temperature on the decomposition rate, showed low uncertainty as determined by generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation. Nonetheless, the parameter set that provided accurate simulations in the topsoil tended to overestimate S_C in the subsoil, suggesting that a mechanism that expresses at depth might not be represented in the current sub-model structure. The explicit integration of C, N, and P fluxes allows for a more cohesive simulation of nutrient cycling in the SWAT model. The sub-model has to be tested in forestland and rangeland in addition to agricultural land, and in diverse soils with extreme properties such high or low pH, an organic horizon, or volcanic soils.     

注入式低温等离子体技术用于卷烟厂异味处理的效果研究

将注入式低温等离子体技术应用于烟厂制丝排潮和制丝除尘排放气体异味处理中,研究了注入式低温等离子体发生器参数对臭味浓度、非甲烷总烃和可检出典型有机物去除率的影响规律。结果表明:注入式低温等离子体发生器工作电压越高,注入处理烟道的氧化活性物种浓度越高,注入量越大,臭味浓度、非甲烷总烃和可检出典型有机物去除率也越高。选取合理的工作电压,臭味浓度去除率可达90%以上,非甲烷总烃去除率分别达到了83.8%(制丝排潮)和78.1%(制丝除尘)。     

平煤十矿底板巷穿层钻孔瓦斯抽采模拟研究

为了降低平煤十矿己15-16-24130工作面运输巷掘进中的突出危险性,基于实际工程背景,考虑瓦斯抽采中的瓦斯运移及煤岩变形等因素,建立了瓦斯抽采气固耦合模型,并利用COMSOL Multiphysics软件对平煤十矿己15-16煤层的底板巷穿层钻孔瓦斯抽采方案进行数值模拟,研究了瓦斯抽采对于降低掘进过程中突出危险性的影响。研究结果表明:在己18煤层开挖底板巷对己15-16煤层进行穿层钻孔瓦斯抽采,瓦斯抽采180 d后,己15-16-24130工作面运输巷附近煤层残余瓦斯压力及瓦斯含量分别降至0.315 MPa和3.84 m3/t;将底板巷穿层钻孔瓦斯抽采方案进行工程应用,实测抽采后的残余瓦斯压力及瓦斯含量在0.32 MPa和3.17 m3/t,均小于平煤十矿煤与瓦斯突出防治规定的“双6”指标（残余瓦斯压力小于0.6 MPa,残余瓦斯含量小于6 m3/t）,可有效降低运输巷掘进过程中的突出危险性。     

阿坝州大骨节病和扶贫开发决策中AHP方法的应用

大骨节病防治和扶贫开发试点工作涉及阿坝州的经济、社会、生态等各方面,且州内各县、乡、村情况各异,众多具体措施关系复杂。为了提高决策质量,使试点工作取得“优化举措、重点突破”的效果,应用AHP方法建立了定量模型。     

Design for occupational safety and health of workers in construction in developing countries: a study of architects in Nigeria

Purpose. Design for safety (DfS) of workers is amongst the prominent ways of tackling poor occupational safety and health performance in construction. However, in developing countries there is extremely limited research on DfS. This study thus makes an important contribution to the subject of DfS in developing countries by specifically examining the awareness and practice of DfS amongst architects within the construction sector of Nigeria. Materials and methods. A survey of architects, yielding 161 valid responses, was conducted. Results. While there is high awareness of the concept of DfS, the actual practice is low. Additionally, although there is high interest in DfS training, the engagement in DfS training is low. Significantly, awareness of DfS, training and education related to DfS, and membership of a design professional body have very limited bearing on the practice of DfS by architects. Conclusions. The findings are thus symptomatic of the prevalence of influential DfS implementation barriers within the construction sector. Industry stakeholders should seek to raise the profile of DfS practice within the sector. Furthermore, similar empirical studies in the construction sector of other developing countries would be useful in shedding light on the status of DfS in these countries.     

红壤丘陵区冬季大气湿沉降化学特征及森林冠层对其截留作用机制

通过对亚热带千烟洲流域的冬季湿沉降化学特征及森林穿透雨进行研究,揭示亚热带流域森林冠层对大气湿沉降中的营养元素(C、N、P、S)及金属元素(K、Ca、Na、Mg、Al、Fe、Mn、Zn)的截留与作用机制.结果表明:1亚热带丘陵区冬季大气湿沉降以酸沉降为主,p H变化范围在3.49~7.0之间,冬季酸沉降离子中以SO_4~(2-)和NO_3~-为主,其月平均沉降通量分别为4.68 kg·hm~(-2)和0.36 kg·hm~(-2),痕量金属元素中以Zn、K、Ca沉降为主,其沉降通量分别为1.72、0.56、0.36 kg·hm~(-2);2森林林冠对溶解性有机碳(DOC)、溶解性总氮(DTN)、总磷(TP)以及痕量元素Ca、Mg、Mn有明显的截留与离释作用,离释百分比达到64.69%、206.75%、301.38%、137.94%、405.25%、1 226.60%;而对Zn、SO2-4具有很好的吸收作用,吸收百分比为73.50%和12.51%,显著降低了亚热带流域冬季酸沉降对土壤生态系统的危害.     

打造网络时代的重庆旅游营销系统

近年来,互联网以一种不可想象的速度向前发展.网络技术的发展和应用使人们在信息共享和交流方面摆脱了时空的局限.旅游业作为21世纪的高成长性行业,它的发展时刻受到信息革命的冲击.针对旅游产品的综合性、无形性、不可转移性和不可贮存性等特点,论述了网络时代旅游业运用网络营销的必然性以及旅游网络营销的优势,并探讨了重庆旅游网络营销的发展策略.