东北玉米低温冷害时空分布与多时间尺度变化规律分析

利用东北地区48个农业气象观测站1961-2010年逐日温度资料和近20多年玉米生育期资料,基于热量指数构建生育阶段冷害指数,采用EOF分析、Mann-Kendall法、子波变换等方法系统分析了近50年东北玉米4个生育阶段低温冷害时空分布及周期特征。结果表明:整个生育期全区平均冷害强度呈极显著的减弱趋势,地区间冷害变化趋势呈现差异化特征,冷害强度减弱趋势由西南向东北方向呈阶梯状递增;4个生育阶段冷害指数EOF第一模态均呈冷害空间变化趋势一致的特征;冷害强度呈较明显的减弱趋势,第1到第4生育阶段减弱趋势逐渐增大,突变均发生在1990年代中期;冷害强度具有较强的周期性,出苗—七叶、出苗—抽雄存在明显的23、25年周期,出苗—乳熟、出苗—成熟均具有较明显的3年周期振荡。     

火焰脉动在火灾领域相关研究进展

为研究火焰脉动在火灾领域相关研究进展，总结了不同燃料类型的火焰脉动形成机理，较为详细地介绍了火焰脉动现象研究中常用的脉动频率测量方法，列举了LDV、TDLAS、自由基团高频采集等新方法；介绍了池火脉动、射流/羽流气体火脉动在不同燃烧器尺寸，不同外部环境和不同燃料比等影响因素方面的研究内容与进展；对常见的3种不同的火焰脉动模型进行描述和归类；对火焰脉动的规律、机理等在火灾领域的早期识别和检测中的作用、特殊条件对于火焰脉动频率的影响和更加精细的火焰脉动模型的研究等方向提出展望。     

Shifts in the spatio-temporal growth dynamics of shortleaf pine

Previous studies focusing on the growth history of Pinus echinata at the edge of its geographical range have suggested that changes in growth correspond to climatic and non-climatic (e.g., anthropogenic) factors. We employ a regime-dependent state-space model that allows us to detect and characterize the changes in tree growth dynamics over space and time using readily available dendrochronological and climatic data in the presence of various sources of uncertainty. We utilize methods common in atmospheric sciences but relatively unknown in ecology and forestry to develop a hierarchical model for tree growth and describe the growth dynamics. The utility of such methods for addressing ecological problems will grow as more high dimensional spatio-temporal processes are considered and datasets become more readily available.     

Effect of the vent burst pressure on explosion venting of rich methane-air mixtures in a cylindrical vessel

The effect of the vent burst pressure on explosion venting of a rich methane-air mixture was experimentally investigated in a small cylindrical vessel. The experimental results show that Helmholtz oscillation of the internal flame bubble of the methane-air mixture can occur in a vessel with a vent area much smaller than that reported by previous researchers, and the period of Helmholtz oscillation decreases slightly when the vent burst pressure increases. The maximum overpressure in the vessel increases approximately linearly with the increase in the vent burst pressure; however, the pressure peaks induced by Helmholtz oscillation always remain approximately several kilopascals. The external flame reaches its maximum length in a few milliseconds after vent failure and then oscillates in accordance with the pressure oscillation in the vessel. The maximum length of the external flame increases, but its duration time decreases with the increase in the vent burst pressure.     

A multidecadal oscillation in precipitation and temperature series is pronounced in low flow series from Puget Sound streams

In Pacific Northwest streams, summer low flows limit water available to competing instream (salmon) and out-of-stream (human) uses, creating broad interest in how and why low flows are trending. Analyses that assumed linear (monotonic) change over the last ~60 years revealed declining low flow trends in minimally disturbed streams. Here, polynomials were used to model flow trends between 1929 and 2015. A multidecadal oscillation was observed in flows, which increased initially from the 1930s until the 1950s, declined until the 1990s, and then increased again. A similar oscillation was detected in precipitation series, and opposing oscillations in surface temperature, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation series. Multidecadal oscillations with similar periods to those described here are well known in climate indices. Fitted model terms were consistent with flow trends being influenced by at least two drivers, one oscillating and the other monotonic. Anthropogenic warming is a candidate driver for the monotonic decline, and variation in (internal) climatic circulation for the oscillating trend, but others were not ruled out. The recent upturn in streamflows suggests that anthropogenic warming has not been the dominant factor driving streamflow trends, at least until 2015. Climate projections based on simulations that omit drivers of multidecadal variation are likely to underestimate the range, and rate of change, of future climatic variation.     

西南地区秋绵雨变化趋势与周期性特征的区域差异

利用西南地区338 个气象站点1961-2009 年9-11 月的逐日降水资料,采用REOF对秋绵雨进行气候分区,运用线性趋势、滑动t 检验、Yamamoto 检验、Mann-Kendall 检验、复Morlet 小波等数学方法,分析各分区秋绵雨日数的变化趋势、突变特征、周期性特点,结果发现：西南地区秋绵雨东多西少,四川东南部、重庆西南部和贵州北部秋绵雨最多,年发生率在80%以上,年均日数在10 d 以上;西南地区秋绵雨可分为4 个气候区,即四川盆地东部区、黔南区、四川盆地西部区和滇东北区;其中四川盆地东部区、黔南区、四川盆地西部区秋绵雨日数有减少趋势,滇东北区有增加趋势,但均不显著;黔南区秋绵雨日数在1988 年发生了由多到少的突变,滇东北区秋绵雨日数则在1985 年和1995 年发生了两次相反的突变;各分区秋绵雨日数的年代际振荡周期差异较大,从10 a 到27 a 不等,年际振荡周期四川盆地东部区和黔南区为2～5 a尺度,四川盆地西部区和滇东北区为2～3 a尺度。     

Using Paleo Reconstructions to Improve Streamflow Forecast Lead Time in the Western United States

In water stressed regions, water managers are exploring new horizons that would help in long‐range streamflow forecasts. Oceanic‐atmospheric oscillations have been shown to influence streamflow variability. In this study, long‐lead time streamflow forecasts are made using a multiclass kernel‐based data‐driven support vector machine (SVM) model. The extended streamflow records based on tree ring reconstructions were used to provide a longer time series data. Reconstructed data were used from 1658 to 1952 and the instrumental record was used from 1953 to 2007. Reconstructions for oceanic‐atmospheric oscillations included the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, and North Atlantic Oscillation. Streamflow forecasts using all four oscillations were made with one‐year to five‐year lead times for 21 gages in the western United States. This is the first study that uses both instrumental and reconstructed data of oscillations in SVM model to improve streamflow forecast lead time. SVM model was able to provide “satisfactory” to “very good” forecasts with one‐ to five‐year lead time for the selected gages. The use of all the oscillation indices helped in achieving better predictability compared to using individual oscillations. The SVM modeling results are better when compared with multiple linear regression model forecasts. The findings are statistical in nature and are expected to be useful for long‐term water resources planning and management.     

浅谈河道与水库清淤的新工艺

分析比较了传统河道水库淤积的清除工艺 ,从而提出一种新型的清淤技术 ,即气举与自激振荡脉冲水射流联合作用下的清淤工艺。分析了这种新工艺的清淤原理 ,论证了其对水下坚硬沉积物的破碎与抽取的连续作用机理 ;研究了空压机的工作压力与清淤量的关系。     

Effect of ignition position on vented hydrogen–air deflagration in a 1 m3 vessel

This study investigates the effect of the ignition position on vented hydrogen-air deflagration in a 1 m³ vessel and evaluates the performance of the commercial computational fluid dynamics (CFD) code FLACS in simulating the vented explosion of hydrogen-air mixtures. First, the differences in the measured pressure-time histories for various ignition locations are presented, and the mechanisms responsible for the generation of different pressure peaks are explained, along with the flame behavior. Secondly, the CFD software FLACS is assessed against the experimental data. The characteristic phenomena of vented explosion are observed for hydrogen-air mixtures ignited at different ignition positions, such as Helmholtz oscillation for front ignition, the interaction between external explosion and combustion inside the vessel for central ignition, and the wall effect for back-wall ignition. Flame-acoustic interaction are observed in all cases, particularly in those of front ignition and very lean hydrogen-air mixtures. The predicted flame behavior agree well with the experimental data in general while the simulated maximum overpressures are larger than the experimental values by a factor of 1.5–2, which is conservative then would lead to a safe design of explosion panels for instance. Not only the flame development during the deflagration was well-simulated for the different ignition locations, but also the correspondence between the pressure transients and flame behavior was also accurately calculated. The comparison of the predicted results with the experimental data shows the performance of FLACS to model vented mixtures of hydrogen with air ignited in a lab scale vessel. However, the experimental scale is often smaller than that used in practical scenarios, such as hydrogen refueling installations. Thus, future large-scale experiments are necessary to assess the performance of FLACS in practical use.