人口统计学变量对环境保护公众参与意识的影响实证研究

采用问卷调查和数理统计等研究方法,研究了人口统计学变量在环境保护公众参与意识上的差异,以及与环境保护公众参与各个变量之间的相关性。结果表明:居民的年龄在公众环保行为和环保政策满意度上呈现显著性差异,居民的职业在环境保护认知、公众环保行为环保政策满意度上呈现显著性差异,居民的受教育程度在环境保护认知、个人环保习惯、公众环保行为、环保政策满意度上呈现显著性差异。婚姻状况与公众环保行为、环保政策满意度之间存在显著性负相关,年龄与环境保护认知之间存在显著性正相关,与环境政策满意度、环境表现满意度之间出现显著性的负相关性,职业与环境保护认知、个人环保习惯、公众环保行为之间存在显著性正相关性,与环保政策满意度、环保表现满意度之间存在显著性负相关。     

On the use of correlated beta random variables with animal population modelling

We give reasons why demographic parameters such as survival and reproduction rates are often modelled well in stochastic population simulation using beta distributions. In practice, it is frequently expected that these parameters will be correlated, for example with survival rates for all age classes tending to be high or low in the same year. We therefore discuss a method for producing correlated beta random variables by transforming correlated normal random variables, and show how it can be applied in practice by means of a simple example. We also note how the same approach can be used to produce correlated uniform, triangular, and exponential random variables.     

Impact of glyphosate on the development, fertility and demography of Chrysoperla externa (Neuroptera: Chrysopidae): Ecological approach

Few ecotoxicological studies have used life table analysis to evaluate the toxicity of pesticides on beneficial organisms. This study is the first report of the effect of the herbicide glyphosate on a predator insect, Chrysoperla externa, using a demographic approach. This predator is associated to soybean pests and has a potential role as a biological control agent in the Neotropical Region. The objective of this work was to evaluate the side-effects of glyphosate on the development, fertility and demography of C. externa, treated orally by ingestion of glyphosate-dipped eggs of Sitotroga cerealella in laboratory conditions. The data were analyzed using the age-stage, two-sex life table. Development from third larval instar to pupae and adult longevity were shorter in glyphosate-treatment than in the control. Adult pre-reproductive period was longer in glyphosate-treatment than in the control. Fecundity and fertility were deeply reduced, as well, being fertility greater affected. A high important reduction was registered in all population parameters. Most eggs from glyphosate-treated cohort looked abnormal, smaller than control, dehydrated and became black 2 d after oviposition. In addition, adults developed tumours in the abdomen region at 20 d after emergence, being the effect more drastic in females than males. It is beyond the scope of our study to speculate on the effects of this herbicide on C. externa field populations. However, it seems likely that populations under continuous use of glyphosate would be exposed at greater detrimental effects in the long term.     

Norm Stability in Jirisan National Park: Effects of Time,Existing Conditions,and Background Characteristics

Norm stability is an important issue to consider in using the normative approach as a component of resource management decision making. This study examines three major questions related to norm stability: (1) Do norms change over time? (2) Do existing conditions affect norms? (3) Do background characteristics and visitation patterns affect norms? Data used in this study were collected at a campground in the Jirisan National Park (JNP) of Korea in 1993, 1994, and 2003. A total of 396 subjects were used for the study (120 for 1993, 106 for 1994, and 170 for 2003). Changes in the standards for “quiet time” and “seeing others littering” were statistically significant, but there was no change in the standard for “number of other tents.” There was little change in norm agreement or norm prevalence. Existing conditions were strongly correlated with standards for number of other tents but results were mixed for the other two indicators. Users’ demographic characteristics and visitation patterns were not generally related to norms. Findings of the study are discussed.     

Predicting the economic and demographic impacts of long distance commuting in the resources sector: A Surat basin case study

Predicting the economic and demographic impacts of resource development on regional areas is difficult to assess because of limited availability of analysis, difficulties of predicting where workforce are likely to be based, and different impacts on communities because of variations in size and economic structures. In this study modelling has been employed to identify future employment and demographic impacts of future resource developments on communities in the Surat Basin in southern Queensland, Australia. The analysis summarises potential employment increases over multiple projects and uses multipliers from Input–Output models to assess likely impacts by local government area when future workforce might commute to or live locally in the region. The results demonstrate that recent moves to commuting workforces limit the economic impacts on local and regional communities in complex ways.     

A flexible intelligent algorithm for identification of optimum mix of demographic variables for integrated HSEE-ISO systems: The case of a gas transmission refinery

This study proposes a flexible intelligent algorithm for assessment and optimization of demographic features on integrated health, safety, and environment and ergonomics (HSEE)-ISO systems among operators of a gas transmission refinery. To achieve the objectives of this study, standard questionnaires with respect to HSEE and ISO standards are completed by 80 operators. Demographic features include age, education, gender, weight, stature, marital status, and work type. The average results for each category of HSEE are used as inputs and effectiveness of ISO systems (ISO 18000, ISO 14000, and ISO 9000) are used as output for the intelligent algorithm. Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) in addition to conventional regression are used in this paper. Result shows the applicability and superiority of the flexible intelligent algorithm over conventional methods through mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). Computational results show that the proposed ANN performs better than ANFIS and conventional regressions based on its relative error. Finally, the optimum mix of demographic variables from viewpoint of HSEE and ISO are identified. This is the first study that proposes a flexible intelligent algorithm for assessment of optimum mix of demographic features for HSEE and ISO systems in a complex system such as a gas transmission refinery.     

Seasonal variation in paediatric blood lead levels in Syracuse,NY, USA

Venous blood lead values for 2,633 children aged 0–4 years in Syracuse, New York, collected between 1 April 1992 and 31 March 1993 were summarised by census tract for study of geographic variability. A demographic exposure model is presented showing housing stock and SES (socioeconomic status) parameters as the most significant predictor variables. A seasonal trend in blood lead levels was observed with late summer values about 40% higher than late winter values for census tracts with the highest geometric mean PbB levels. Seasonal variation is compared with a biokinetic uptake model to examine hypotheses about temporal variations in soil and dust lead exposure patterns.     

Hedonic analysis of hazardous waste sites in the presence of other urban disamenities

Hedonic research indicates that residential property values are reduced by increased proximity to hazardous waste sites, a measure of diminished environmental quality. Standard hedonic procedures measure proximity by the linear distance between a property and a waste site of interest. A sample of properties is then used to estimate a distance-to-site coefficient that measures the effect of the hazardous waste site on surrounding property values. These estimates can help policy makers assess the external effects of hazardous waste sites and may also be useful in both prioritizing and assessing the benefits of cleanup. In an urban situation, hazardous waste sites are often located near other industrial disamenities such as railroads, storage tanks, industrial noises, and air pollution. This spatial grouping of hazards may be due to economic forces or due to policy instruments such as zoning. As a result, distance to hazardous waste site may be correlated with distances to other industrial disamenities. Standard hedonic procedures that use a distance-to-site variable may suffer from omitted variable bias when the bundled industrial disamenities are present but ignored. Our empirical analysis examines this bias by assessing hedonic regressions with and without a measure that accounts for industrial activity.     

Revised estimates and projections of down syndrome births in the United States,and the effects of prenatal diagnosis utilization, 1970–2002

The objectives of this study were to: (1) calculate revised estimates and projections of United States annual Down syndrome (DS) births for 1970–2002, and (2) estimate the effects of amniocentesis on these baseline DS birth projections. Three models of amniocentesis utilization among 30–34 and ≧ 35-year-old women were considered. The recently revised Census Bureau birth projections, and new single year maternal age DS risk rates estimated from a 1970–1983 Ohio data set, were used. Data from all three Census Bureau projection series were analysed; series II was considered in depth since it is consistent with recent fertility levels. Assuming no use of amniocentesis, total estimated DS births dropped from about 4770 in 1970 to 4120 in 1980 (a 14 per cent decline), but are projected to a plateau of about 5100 by the year 1990 (a 24 per cent increase). DS births to women ≧ 35 would increase dramatically from about 1050 in 1980 to 1900 in 2000 (an 81 per cent increase). Assuming 1983 Ohio prenatal diagnosis ratios for women aged 30–34 (1.7 per cent) and ≧ 35 (23.4 per cent) are used nationally, an annual reduction of about 7 per cent of DS births in 1986 and 9 per cent in 2002 would result. Fifty and 70 per cent utilization among women 30–34 and 235, respectively, would reduce DS births by about 33 per cent in 1986 and 38 per cent in 2002. Therefore, if the projected increase in DS births is to be averted, utilization of prenatal diagnosis by ≧ 30-year-old women must increase substantially.