北京水灾及其社会影响

北京在历史上曾发生多次重大水灾,给人民生命财产、城市建设及社会安定带来了巨大影响。形成水灾的主要因素是永定河决口泛溢和区域雨涝。现从大量的历史文献中列举几个实例,来看水灾的严重程度及其影响后果。     

Landscape Structure and Historical Processes Along Diked European Valleys: A Case Study of the Arc/Isère Confluence (Savoie, France)

/ The valleys of European piedmonts constitute changing narrow corridors within which water, matter, nutrients, energy, and species flow. The dispersion patterns of these flows have been significantly disturbed since the end of the 18th century. Thus, western European valleys have been changed into complex mosaics by implementation of socioeconomical programs. In order to define future actions allowing the preservation of this "ecocomplex" (Blandin and Lamotte 1988), it is necessary to gather precise information of the landscape dynamics. Hence, the study of the European river valleys must be based upon two major steps: (1)the analysis of the present landscape with suitable remote sensing techniques, allowing us to map the complex mosaic of narrow corridors; and (2) the analysis of temporal landscape development patterns since the first engineering works that have transformed the braided channel system. In this paper, the efficiency of the addition of two techniques is highlighted: (1) the "wavelet merging method" from multispectral and panchromatic SPOT images for the floodplain land-cover mapping, and (2) the historical reconstruction techniques from old maps and archive documents in order to analyze the cumulative impacts of engineering works on landscape diversity. To illustrate the method, a particularly complex case study is chosen: the Arc/Isere confluence (downstream from Albertville, Savoie, France). Remote sensing, field survey, and historical reconstruction allowed us to distinguish two types of spatial units: (1) the "functional sets" characterized by independent state factors (edaphic, hydrological, and topographic) and supporting a limited number of vegetation types (spontaneous or cultivated), and (2) the functional unit (= ecotope), which corresponds to a unique combination of vegetation type/functional set.KEY WORDS: Landscape ecology; Floodplains; Vegetation; Land use; Remote sensing; Historical reconstruction; Mapping; Merging methods; Human impacts; Alps; Isere river; France     

A Holistic Approach to Hydrocarbon Source Allocation in the Subtidal Sediments of Prince William Sound,Alaska, Embayments

Prince William Sound (PWS), Alaska has an extensive history of human and industrial activity that has produced a complex organic geochemistry record in subtidal sediments of embayments throughout the sound. In addition to contributions from recent oil spills and a regional background of natural petroleum hydrocarbons originating from active hydrocarbon systems in the northern Gulf of Alaska (GOA), pyrogenic and petrogenic PAH were, and continue to be introduced to subtidal sediments at numerous sites of past and present human activities. These sites include villages, fish hatcheries, fish camps and recreational campsites in addition to abandoned settlements, canneries, sawmills, and mines. A holistic approach is used to fingerprint and quantify hydrocarbon contributions from multiple sources in a sediment sample. It involves acquiring a comprehensive understanding of the history of the area to identify potential sources, collection of representative samples, and accurate quantitative analyses of the source and sediment samples for a suite of diagnostic PAH analytes and chemical biomarker compounds. Unlike the deepwater sediments of the sound and GOA, the TOC tool, described elsewhere, does not work as well in some restricted embayments due to their high contents of recent organic matter (ROM). The current study employs a constrained least-squares algorithm to allocate hydrocarbon sources contributing to subtidal sediments collected from PWS embayments in 1991, 1999 and 2000. Results show that sources contributing to the natural petrogenic background are present in the embayments, pyrogenic hydrocarbons including combustion products of diesel are important where human activity was high, and petroleum produced from the Monterey Formation (CA) is present locally. Oil and asphalt shipped from California were widely used for fuel and construction prior to development of the Cook Inlet and North Slope fields. In certain locations that were oiled in 1989, low levels of highly degraded Alaska North Slope crude oil residues attributable to the Exxon Valdez spill remain.     

Disturbance regimes,resilience, and recovery of animal communities and habitats in lotic ecosystems

Disturbance regime is a critical organizing feature of stream communities and ecosystems. The position of a given reach in the river basin and the sediment type within that reach are two key determinants of the frequency and intensity of flow-induced disturbances. We distinguish between predictable and unpredictable events and suggest that predictable discharge events are not disturbances. We relate the dynamics of recovery from disturbance (i.e., resilience) to disturbance regime (i.e., the disturbance history of the site). The most frequently and predictably disturbed sites can be expected to demonstrate the highest resilience. Spatial scale is an important dimension of community structure, dynamics, and recovery from disturbance. We compare the effects on small patches (⩽1 m²) to the effects of large reaches at the river basin level. At small scales, sediment movements and scour are major factors affecting the distribution of populations of aquatic insects or algae. At larger scales, we must deal with channel formation, bank erosion, and interactions with the riparian zone that will affect all taxa and processes. Our understanding of stream ecosystem recovery rests on our grasp of the historical, spatial, and temporal background of contemporary disturbance events.     

Short-term changes in mobile dunes at Port Alfred,South Africa

Development along the western beachfront of Port Alfred, which is situated along a sandy shoreline, increased markedly in the 1960s as the coastal town became a popular holiday resort. This development included the removal of coastal vegetation, which resulted in the destabilization of dunes and migration of sand westerly onto the road, West Beach parking lot, and lawns of the cabanas. Sand traps were constructed to collect sand blowing across the dunes over set periods, and the net sand movement along the mobile dune belt was calculated using Hunter's equation. The dunes show an easterly movement of sand at a rate of 3.5 m/yr, which is comparable with figures recorded along other areas of this coastline. Considering the wind regime and amount of sand movement along this coast, it is inappropriate to clear vegetation and develop within the dune region.     

Modeling the long-term effects of fuelwood harvests on Pinyon-Juniper Woodlands

In the Southwestern United States, increasing demand for firewood has quickly promoted pinyon-juniper woodlands to commercial status. Slow recovery rates for pinyon and juniper and inadequate mensuration data present significant obstacles to predictive management efforts. Many National Forest districts have witnessed continued fuel use for at least the past 100 years. To explore the need for long-term analysis at the district level, we have developed FORMAN I, a computer simulation written in FORTRAN IV that models prolonged fuel harvesting and its impact on pinyon-juniper woodlands. The technique is well-suited for historical analyses and we comply with an initial application that involves the suggested impact of prehistoric peoples on a marginal woodland in Chaco Canyon, New Mexico. To accentuate the significance of the simulation, we have deliberately overestimated woodland parameters while maintaining conservative annual rates for firewood procurement. A low-density woodland (less than 14.8 cords/ha) is completely depleted within 200 years when subjected to tenth-through-twelfth century estimates of human demography for the canyon. Interesting conclusions are drawn from the lack of pinyon-juniper recovery at Chaco over the past millennium. Traditional assumptions, such as the pristine state of Southwestern vegetation prior to historic settlement and subsequent invasion of marginal grasslands by pinyon and juniper, are questioned.     

Mobilisation of sediment-associated metals from historical Pb working sites on the River Sheaf, Sheffield, UK

Spatial and temporal patterns of metal mobilisation from former water-powered, Pb working sites in a suburban area of Sheffield (UK) were investigated. Twelve time-integrated mass flux samplers were strategically deployed over two contrasting campaign periods (summer and winter). Suspended sediment samples were characterised magnetically and subjected to metal analysis. Metal levels in the upper River Sheaf showed a marked spatial and temporal variability. Pb concentrations in particular were relatively high (maximum 2132 mg kg(-1)). Their distribution tended to reflect the historical contamination of the valley by 17th to 19th century industry, especially during summer high discharge conditions. The mean suspended sediment Pb concentration (803 mg kg(-1)) exceeds contamination guidelines. It is unclear whether ground remediation of one of the seven floodplain sites in the catchment has been successful. The river is still affected by the legacy of at least two other Pb working sites.     

Predicting the frequency of accidents in port areas by developing event trees from historical analysis

The historical analysis of 828 accidents in port areas, which have been selected from a database, has been used to identify the sequences of the accidents. Processing these data has allowed the event trees and the probability of the various accident scenarios to be determined. By using these event trees and figures detailing the frequency of the events that initiated the accidents, as taken from various authors, the frequency of the accidents has been determined.     

BLEVE: The case of water and a historical survey

After a short update of the current more accepted definition of BLEVE, the special features of water BLEVEs are analyzed. The stronger overpressure wave generated in the case of water as compared to that of other substances is justified in terms of volume change. Through a comparison with liquefied pressurized propane, three possibilities are analyzed: the simultaneous contribution of both the liquid and the preexisting vapor, the contribution of the liquid flash vaporization, and the contribution of the pre-existing vapor. Also a historical survey on a set of 202 BLEVE accidents –the largest sample of BLEVE accidents surveyed until now– is presented. LPG was the most common substances in this set of accidents. However, water and LNG (11% of water and 4% of LNG in the studied cases) have also been involved. Impact failure (44.8%) and human factor (30.3%) were the most common causes of BLEVEs. Transport, storage, process plants, and transfer were the activities in which more accidents occurred.