Methods for project-based mechanisms (JI/CDM)—relevance of IPCC inventory guidelines

A baseline for a project consists of estimates of annual emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) for a given time period without implementing the project. A general three-step process for determining the baseline is suggested. The emission reduction of the project is given by the difference between the baseline and the monitored annual emissions. A preferred method, direct measurement of the emission reduction, is possible for some types of projects. Methods for estimating the annual baseline emissions are not necessary for the latter category, and a definition of this project category is suggested. IPCC Guidelines for National GHG Inventories categorise the emission sources so that only direct emissions from consumption of fuel and feedstock are calculated. There are thus no emission factors for indirect emissions (e.g. electricity consumption or km transported) or emission factors that depend on technology only, independent of consumption of fuel and feedstock. Technology-dependent emission factors may thus need to be developed for estimating indirect emissions and multi-project baselines. Consistency should be sought with the IPCC Guidelines when estimating annual baseline emissions and in monitoring project emissions to ensure comparability with the National Inventories.     

Institutional and cost implications of multi-project baselines

Starting from a theoreticalnotion of capacity building this paperfocuses on the implications ofmulti-project baselines for costs andinstitutions. Availability of data and thelevel of data aggregation determine to alarge extent the cost of derivingmulti-project baselines. For localinstitutions this implies that theircapacity development needs are linked todecisions made on strictness of baselines.The initial higher costs of multi-projectcalculations in the development stage areeasily offset once more projects will usesuch a baseline. This paper argues theseinitial demands are not as high asexpected. Multi-project approaches willreduce transaction costs, especially forsmall-scale projects, will reducevalidation costs and likely reduce humanresource demands in other stages of theproject cycle.     

Methodological and Practical Considerations for Developing Multiproject Baselines for Electric Power and Cement Industry Projects in Central America

The Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Berkeley Lab) and the Center for Sustainable Development in the Americas (CSDA) conducted technical studies and organized two training workshops to develop capacity in Central America for the evaluation of climate change projects. This paper describes the results of two baseline case studies conducted for these workshops, one for the power sector and one for the cement industry, that were devised to illustrate certain approaches to baseline setting. Multiproject baseline emission rates (BERs) for the main Guatemalan electricity grid were calculated from 2001 data. In recent years, the Guatemalan power sector has experienced rapid growth; thus, a sufficient number of new plants have been built to estimate viable BERs. We found that BERs for baseload plants offsetting additional baseload capacity ranged from 0.702 kgCO2/kWh (using a weighted average stringency) to 0.507 kgCO2/kWh (using a 10th percentile stringency), while the baseline for plants offsetting load-following capacity is lower at 0.567 kgCO2/kWh. For power displaced from existing load-following plants, the rate is higher, 0.735 kgCO2/kWh, as a result of the age of some plants used for meeting peak loads and the infrequency of their use. The approved consolidated methodology for the Clean Development Mechanism yields a single rate of 0.753 kgCO2/kWh. Due to the relatively small number of cement plants in the region and the regional nature of the cement market, all of Central America was chosen as the geographic boundary for setting cement industry BERs. Unfortunately, actual operations and output data were unobtainable for most of the plants in the region, and many data were estimated. Cement industry BERs ranged from 205 kgCO2 to 225 kgCO2 per metric ton of cement.     

A participatory approach to the establishment of a baseline scenario for a reforestation Clean Development Mechanism project

This paper is part of a two-year study to investigate the feasibility of initiating a Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) project in an indigenous community of Eastern Panamá, Ipetí-Emberá. We use participatory mapping and matrices as well as household surveys to develop a land-use/land-cover baseline scenario and examine the role of local participation in assessing land-use change. In Ipetí, land-use change has not occurred in a linear way over the last decades, and our data unveils socio-economic factors as potential key drivers of change. The concordance that we observed between geographic information and individual and collective perceptions of land-use change substantiates the possibility of using local knowledge in the establishment of baseline data for CDM projects. Our calculations suggest that the total carbon (C) stocks in the Tierra Colectiva (TC) of Ipetí-Emberá in 2004 represents a 47% reduction from the estimated C stock at the onset of settlement in the early 1970’s. Results from the participatory assessments predict that, in 2024 and in absence of a CDM project, the C stocks will decline from 301,859 t C in 2004 to 155,730 t C, which constitutes a reduction of 52%. The scenario with CDM estimates C stocks of 305,853 t C for 2024, a value slightly superior to the 2004 value. In the TC there is ground to believe that cattle ranching is likely to become an ever more important activity as the population is young and growing and cannot easily move elsewhere. Forests tend to be cleared for cultivation while pastures are established on short fallows. Our baseline scenario underlines the potential for a CDM project to make a significant difference in the future C stocks of this landscape.     

贵阳市表层土壤中镉的环境地球化学基线研究

以土壤环境地球化学研究为主线,以贵州省贵阳市8　046　km²为研究区域,将土壤重金属污染元素镉的空间分布规律与环境地球化学机理研究相结合,建立区域土壤环境地球化学基线,选用合适的判别指标判识自然作用过程与人类活动过程对土壤环境的影响.通过对487个样品的镉含量的统计分析,结果表明,贵阳市表层土壤中镉的基线值为0.068　mg/kg,镉元素含量大于1.010　mg/kg的样品可能遭受人为污染的影响.地质累积指数分析结果显示,贵阳市40%的表层土壤未受镉污染,19%的表层土壤在无污染与中度污染之间,14%受中度污染,19%的表层土壤介于中度污染到强污染之间,7%受强污染,1%的表层土壤介于强污染到极强污染之间.污染程度指数分析则显示,贵阳市57.9%的表层土壤未受到镉污染,镉的污染程度最大为12.1,96%的表层土壤污染程度小于4,总污染程度大于0,即总体受到污染.     

Variation of soil fertility and carbon sequestration by planting Hevea brasiliensis in Hainan Island, China

The development of rubber industry depends on the sustainable management of rubber plantation. To evaluate the environmental effects of planting Hevea brasiliensis on a subsystem of tropical forest ecosystem, the variation of soil fertility and carbon sequestration under rubber plantation within 30-year life period were investigated in Hainan Island. Results showed that （1） with the increase of stand age of rubber plantation, soil fertility decreased all along. From 1954 to 1995, soil organic matter, total N, available K and available P decreased by 48.2%, 54.1%, 56.7% and 64.1%, respectively. （2） If the complete return of litters was considered without additional fertilizer application to the soil of the rubber plantations, the consumption periods for P, N, K, Mg were only 825 years, 329 years, 94 years and 65 years, respectively~ To improve soil fertility is essential for rubber plantation development. （3） The C sequestration of rubber trees per hectare accounts for 272.08 t within 30-year life period and 57.91% of them was fixed in litters. In comparison with C sequestration by rain forest （234.305 t/hm^2） and by secondary rain forest （150.203 t/hm^2）, rubber forest has more potentials for C fixation. On the base of above results, the following measures would benefit the maintenance of soil fertility and the development of rubber industry, including applying fertilizer to maintain the balance of soil nutrients, intercropping leguminous plant to improve soil fertility, reducing the collection of litters, optimizing soil properties to improve element P availability such as applying CaCO3. The information gathered from the study can be used as baseline data for the sustainable management of rubber plantation elsewhere.     

伊犁河流域土壤重金属环境地球化学基线研究及污染评价

采用标准化方法建立伊犁河流域黑钙土、栗钙土、灰钙土和盐碱土Cu、Zn、Pb、As、Hg环境地球化学基线模型,并计算其理论基线值.采用基线因子污染指数评价法、环境背景值评价法和重金属环境洁净度评价法对流域土壤进行对比污染评价.结果表明:①基线因子污染评价显示流域内4种典型土壤类型以As的污染最为突出,黑钙土、栗钙土、灰钙土分别有7.14%、9.76%、7.50%的样点达重度污染;其次为Pb,栗钙土有7.32%的样点达重度污染,且As和Pb的变异度最大,表明人为扰动大.②环境背景值评价显示,土壤主要污染元素为As,其次为Cu、Zn、Pb;③土壤重金属环境洁净度评价显示,Cu、Zn、Pb在4种土类中均优于二级洁净度,Hg为一级洁净度,As在灰钙土中为中度污染,黑钙土、栗钙土、盐碱土为二级或优于二级.比较3种评价体系,基线因子污染评价较为充分地体现了元素地球化学迁移特性及土壤发育过程,且可将污染评价定位到样点;而背景值污染评价因建立于区域背景值,忽视了重金属元素在土壤中自然迁移、淀积过程;重金属环境洁净度评价则以土壤环境安全度为主要评价目的.     

Shifting Baselines and The Extinction of The Caribbean Monk Seal

The recent extnction of the Caribbean monk seal Monachus tropicalis has been considered an example of a human‐caused extinction in the marine environment, and this species was considered a driver of the changes that have occurred in the structure of Caribbean coral reef ecosystems since colonial times. I searched archaeological records, historical data, and geographic names (used as a proxy of the presence of seals) and evaluated the use and quality of these data to conclude that since prehistoric times the Caribbean monk seal was always rare and vulnerable to human predation. This finding supports the hypothesis that in AD 1500, the Caribbean monk seal persisted as a small fragmented population in which individuals were confined to small keys, banks, or isolated islands in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea. This hypothesis is contrary to the assumption that the species was widespread and abundant historically. The theory that the main driver of monk seal extinction was harvesting for its oil for use in the sugar cane industry of Jamaica during the 18th century is based primarily on anecdotal information and is overemphasized in the literature. An analysis of reported human encounters with this species indicates monk seal harvest was an occasional activity, rather than an ongoing enterprise. Nevertheless, given the rarity of this species and its restricted distribution, even small levels of hunting or specimen collecting must have contributed to its extinction, which was confirmed in the mid‐20th century. Some sources had been overlooked or only partially reviewed, others misinterpreted, and a considerable amount of anecdotal information had been uncritically used. Critical examination of archaeological and historical records is required to infer accurate estimations of the historical abundance of a species. In reconstructing the past to address the shifting baseline syndrome, it is important to avoid selecting evidence to confirm modern prejudices. Puntos de Referencia Cambiantes y la Extinción de la Foca Monje Caribeña     

山西省大同市煤气化总公司职业健康安全基准评估

随着国家安全生产工作力度的不断加强,加强职业健康安全管理成为许多国有企业的一项重要任务。对此,大同市煤气化总公司结合企业清洁生产实践．建立职业健康安全咨询委员会。在该委员会协助下．通过文件分析、现场观察、与职工交流和对比分析,在全公司范围内识别出26项职业健康安全问题,并对其中主要问题实施简要评估,以此作为该公司建立职业健康安全管理体系和改进职业健康安全管理水平的基准。     

美国军用标准航天器试验基线与量级调整研究

对美国航天器试验的军用标准的发展进行了调研,系统地整理了MIL-STD-1540标准到SMC-S-016A标准的发展脉络,针对系统级、组件级试验基线的修订进行了整理、分析。以热试验为典型研究对象,整理了不同标准对于系统级、组件级热试验在试验温度范围、循环数、剪裁方法上的修改,对比了试验基线、试验量级的变迁,结合美国航天器型号与验证理念的发展,分析了其修订的依据,为我国相应标准的制定、修订提供了参考。