基于熵权-HDT的航空器维修人误概率确定

人误是造成民用航空维修差错的主要因素。为确定不同情境下人误发生概率,结合某维修基地具体情况,采用熵权法确定主要的影响因子,并基于全决策树法分析主要影响因子对航空器维修人误概率的影响程度。计算结果显示,该维修基地人因可靠性的主要影响因子包括航空器维修人员的安全态度、技能、沟通、工作环境、压力以及工段长领导能力。根据各主要影响因子的不同品质描述等级组合,确定该情境下航空器维修人员的人误概率。鉴于该维修基地人因可靠性影响最明显的因子是"沟通",提出信息及时交流、明确沟通重要性等解决措施。     

整体性治理视域下防治外来物种入侵法治研究

外来物种入侵是威胁国家生物多样性、生态安全和公众健康的重大安全问题。《生物安全法》的通过为防治外来物种入侵提供了综合性的制度规范。我国防治外来物种入侵法治实践长期以行政规制为主导,较少关注司法机关、企事业单位、社会组织和公众等法律主体在治理中的作用。行政规制治理中执法机构及其职能与管理手段的碎片化,亦无法回应高风险社会防治外来物种入侵的需要。我国防治外来物种入侵法治建设应当坚持整体性治理理念,以整体安全观为指导,坚持风险预防、防治结合,明确综合管理程序及责任法律制度和一体化协同执法机制,健全防治外来物种入侵行政规制体系;引入公众参与,形成政府、企事业单位、社会组织和公众协同治理外来物种入侵,鼓励外来物种入侵公益诉讼等,完善防治外来物种入侵的多元共治体系,共促国家生物安全治理体系。     

生态文明建设的基本关系:环境社会系统中的四种关系论

文章主要以中国古代文明为例,指出人与自然的关系在文明演化中存在分裂的现象,并初步论证了人与自然的关系可以被分解成两种关系,即人与夭的关系和人与物的关系.在人与自然关系中,从系统的整体角度考虑,将涉及到的人与自然的关系称为人与天的关系;从自然中一个个独立存在的个体角度考虑,人与自然的关系主要体现为人与物的关系.此种分解亦可以作为理解"李约瑟问题"的一种视角.本文将这两种关系以及人与人的关系、人与自身的关系,共四种关系,统一在三种生产理论的框架内.这样的划分对落实科学发展观,建设生态文明,发展环境管理学都有重要的理论指导意义.     

Safety and Quality Issues as Part of a Holistic (i.e., Sociotechnological) Approach

Abstract

In the past, many so-called management concepts were not very successful because of their fragmented approach. This is also true for topics like safety and quality. Here, technical aspects often predominated while disregarding the equally important need for a change of attitude. On the other hand, awareness was created by timely limited programmes.

The paper deals with integrating quality and safety in holistic (management) concepts, which are described first before being discussed in detail.     

2A12铝合金微动疲劳全寿命预测方法研究

目的对于2A12铝合金,提出基于成核寿命和扩展寿命的微动疲劳全寿命预测方法。方法基于损伤力学法计算裂纹成核寿命,利用扩展有限元计算裂纹尖端应力强度因子,应用断裂力学计算裂纹扩展寿命,并对预测者和试验值进行比较。结果损伤力学法能考虑接触面应力三维度的作用来反映多轴状态作用,能有效模拟微动疲劳多轴行为。基于损伤力学法的微动疲劳全寿命预测模型能有效预测微动疲劳全寿命。由于微动作用,裂纹成核非常早,扩展寿命从试件的近表面开始,占全寿命的主要部分。结论考虑成核寿命和扩展寿命的微动疲劳全寿命分析是完善的,预测值与试验值比较吻合。     

生物多样性保护中模糊治理的解释与展开

面向复杂的生态环境系统,将生物多样性保护的全部要素在短时间内全部加以规则化、制度化可能会带来高昂的制度转型成本并形成负面反馈,延长有效治理的时限。生物多样性保护的复杂性、生物安全事件的突发性都需要治理系统快速做出反应,提供弹性、包容的治理机制。模糊治理的嵌入可以对精细化治理形成有效补充。这一模式将打破行政主体的关系限制,突破行政区域地理的空间限制,推进生物多样性保护协调行动。要完成这一任务,既需要完善清晰、可预测的生物多样性制度框架,为模糊治理提供规则条件,也需要适度模糊治理主体的组织关系,为模糊治理提供机制条件,还需要完善生物多样性治理的层级网络,模糊治理区域的地域关系,为模糊治理提供策略条件。     

Biotechnology is compatible with sustainable agriculture

Biotechnology can provide appropriate new tools for use in solution of specific problems in sustainable agriculture. Its usefulness will depend in large part on the degree to which sustainable agriculturists understand the utility of biotechnology and apply it toward ends they deem important. Biotechnology can give little assistance to sustainable agriculture in the short term. It can be more useful in the medium term, and it could be highly useful in the long term as an integral part of the art and science of plant breeding and other components of sustainable agriculture systems.     

热力学理论在湖泊富营养化研究中的应用

本文在分析了生态系统进化的热力学理论（最大能量、最大功率、最大优势原理）的基础上，综述了能量、功率和优势值在国内外湖泊富营养化研究中的应用，说明生态系统进化的热力学理论为认识和研究复杂的湖泊生态系统提供了整体性的途径，并指出为把热力学理论有效地用于湖泊富营养化的研究而应加强的科研工作。     

物流安全评估体系研究

从系统工程方法论的角度,运用物流安全评估体系对物流系统进行评估,该体系概括了物流系统安全评估的步骤、阶段、涉及的知识范围以及环境影响。在Hall三维结构的基础上,构建物流安全评估体系的四维结构,并提出物流安全评估体系的整体结构模型。给出了物流安全评估体系的具体实施步骤,并将该评估体系应用于物流信息系统安全评估中,其结果表明该评估方法可行并给出该实例的安全对策。该体系提供了一种物流安全评估的新思路,为构建更实用的物流系统安全评估体系及评估方法提供了依据。     

State-of-the-art sustainability analysis methodologies for efficient decision support in green production operations

Over the last three decades, new concepts, strategies, frameworks and systems have been developed to tackle the sustainable development issue. This paper reviews the challenges, perspectives and recent advances in support of sustainable production operations decision-making. The aim of this review is to provide a holistic understanding of advanced scientific analysis methodologies for the evaluation of sustainability, to provide efficient decision support. Over 100 publications have been analysed, and a characterisation of state-of-the-art sustainability analysis methodologies has been produced, which includes life cycle assessment and multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA), along with their applications to three key areas of production operations: sustainable design, sustainable manufacture and sustainable supply chain management. Distribution of existing work is discussed and future research directions are elicited from the literature. The paper finds three trends in supporting sustainable production operations decisions: (a) sustainability analysis has moved to whole life cycle assessment from single-stage assessment, (b) sustainability analysis has shifted away from single criterion to MCDA and (c) sustainability analysis has evolved from stand-alone approaches to integrated systematic methodologies. The paper concludes that integrated sustainability analysis can provide more efficient and effective support to complex decision-making in sustainable production operations.