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1.
金磊 《中国安全科学学报》1995,5(2):19-24
阐述建立风险学的重要性,探讨了开展安全减灾风险评价与管理的关键问题。概要介绍国内外风险水平的表征、识别方法及指标体系,并提出风险管理的基本原则。引入风险地图、危机管理、风险数学、应急与预警等现代概念及方法,基本反映了在瑞典召开的“新区开发中的风险科学与管理”国际会议的内容。 相似文献
2.
金磊 《中国安全科学学报》1995,(2)
阐述建立风险学的重要性,探讨了开展安全减灾风险评价与管理的关键问题。概要介绍国内外风险水平的表征、识别方法及指标体系,并提出风险管理的基本原则。引入风险地图、危机管理、风险数学、应急与预警等现代概念及方法,基本反映了在瑞典召开的“新区开发中的风险科学与管理”国际会议的内容。 相似文献
3.
Climatic hazards warning process in Bangladesh: Experience of,and lessons from,the 1991 April cyclone 总被引:6,自引:0,他引:6
C. Emdad Haque 《Environmental management》1995,19(5):719-734
Science and technology cannot control entirely the causes of natural hazards. However, by using multifaceted programs to modify
the physical and human use systems, the potential losses from disasters can effectively be minized. Predicting, identifying,
monitoring, and forecasting extreme meteorological events are the preliminary actions towards mitigating the cyclone-loss
potential of coastal inhabitants, but without the successful dissemination of forecasts and relevant information, and without
appropriate responses by the potential victims, the loss potential would probably remain the same. This study examines the
process through which warning of the impending disastrous cyclone of April 1991 was received by the local communities and
disseminated throughout the coastal regions of Bangladesh. It is found that identification of the threatening condition due
to atmospheric disturbance, monitoring of the hazard event, and dissemination of the cyclone warning were each very successful.
However, due to a number of socioeconomic and cognitive factors, the reactions and responses of coastal inhabitants to the
warning were in general passive, resulting in a colossal loss, both at the individual and national level. The study recommends
that the hazard mitigation policies should be integrated with national economic development plans and programs. Specifically,
it is suggested that, in order to attain its goals, the cyclone warning system should regard the aspects of human response
to warnings as a constituent part and accommodate human dimensions in its operational design. 相似文献
4.
Paolo Ciavola Oscar Ferreira Piet Haerens Mark Van Koningsveld Clara ArmaroliAuthor vitae 《Environmental Science & Policy》2011,14(7):924-933
This paper describes the MICORE approach to quantify for nine field sites the crucial storm related physical hazards (hydrodynamic as well as morphodynamic) in support of early warning efforts and emergency response.As a first step historical storms that had a significant morphological impact on a representative number of sensitive European coastal stretches were reviewed and analysed in order to understand storm related morphological changes and how often they occur around Europe. Next, an on-line storm prediction system was set up to enable prediction of storm related hydro- and morphodynamic impacts. The system makes use of existing off-the-shelf models as well as a new open-source morphological model. To validate the models at least one year of fieldwork was done at nine pilot sites. The data was safeguarded and stored for future use in an open database that conforms to the OpenEarth protocols.To translate quantitative model results to useful information for Civil Protection agencies the Frame of Reference approach (
[Van Koningsveld et al., 2005]
and
[Van Koningsveld et al., 2007]
) was used to derive Storm Impact Indicators (SIIs) for relevant decision makers. The acquired knowledge is expected to be directly transferred to the civil society trough partnerships with end-users at the end of the MICORE project. 相似文献
5.
《Environmental Hazards》2013,12(1):15-22
Abstract New technologies promise reduced flash flood losses. However, real-time observations with vast multi-sensor networks, more precise mapping capabilities using remote sensing and GIS, quicker hydrological and meteorological models, and increasing forecast lead times have not reduced losses. In November, 1999, 35 researchers from nine countries met in Ravello, Italy at a NATO sponsored Advanced Study Institute, to discuss these issues and to develop a research agenda that incorporates the various components required to cope with flash floods. The key recommendations from the Institute were: (1) greater emphasis on increasing understanding of the social processes involved in flash flood warning, particularly in the response phases, and (2) the need to reduce vulnerability in sustainable ways compatible with long-term economic and social goals. The relationship between hydrometeorology and social science is seen as critical to advancing our abilities to cope with flash floods. 相似文献
6.
Sherratt TN 《Die Naturwissenschaften》2008,95(8):681-695
It is now 130 years since Fritz Müller proposed an evolutionary explanation for the close similarity of co-existing unpalatable prey species, a phenomenon now known as Müllerian mimicry. Müller's hypothesis was that unpalatable species evolve a similar appearance to reduce the mortality involved in training predators to avoid them, and he backed up his arguments with a mathematical model in which predators attack a fixed number (n) of each distinct unpalatable type in a given season before avoiding them. Here, I review what has since been discovered about Müllerian mimicry and consider in particular its relationship to other forms of mimicry. Müller's specific model of associative learning involving a "fixed n" in a given season has not been supported, and several experiments now suggest that two distinct unpalatable prey types may be just as easy to learn to avoid as one. Nevertheless, Müller's general insight that novel unpalatable forms have higher mortality than common unpalatable forms as a result of predation has been well supported by field experiments. From its inception, there has been a heated debate over the nature of the relationship between Müllerian co-mimics that differ in their level of defence. There is now a growing awareness that this relationship can be mediated by many factors, including synergistic effects between co-mimics that differ in their mode of defence, rates of generalisation among warning signals and concomitant changes in prey density as mimicry evolves. I highlight areas for future enquiry, including the possibility of Müllerian mimicry systems based on profitability rather than unprofitability and the co-evolution of defence. 相似文献
7.
环境风险预警方法与应急成套装备的应用展望 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
介绍了环境风险预警方法建立的环境风险预警指标体系、环境风险源管理平台、环境风险源风险评估技术方法以及模块式应急成套装备的技术特点等;分析了环境风险预警方法与应急成套设备在危险化学品环境风险与应急管理,在区域大气环境挥发性有机污染物(VOCs)监控预警等方面的实际需求。面临现实的环境风险状况从环境风险防控与应急工程技术研究中心建设角度提出了需进一步完善、开发的环境风险预测预警技术与应急成套装备等新思路。 相似文献
8.
洪水的等级划分及其减灾意义 总被引:11,自引:3,他引:11
根据地震,风力等级的数学结构,提出一种洪水等级划分公式;对用等级表示洪水大小的减灾意义作了初步分析。 相似文献
9.
10.
以核电站核污染扩散预警技术为研究对象,基于环保指挥自动化系统C4ISRE,通过整合WRF、HYSPLIT、Unidata IDV、AGI STK、Arc GIS系统等构建核污染扩散单一合成图SIP(Single Integrated Picture),并通过SIP对核污染扩散进行详细分析,进而实现对核污染应急处置的制信息权。研究表明:当研究区实际的天气系统具备了本例模拟的气象特征时,即主体风向为局部区域东北风3~4级,局部区域西北风6~7级,发生与日本福岛核事故同样等级的事故,12个小时后,受影响的居民区主要为谢屯镇、炮台镇、李店镇、普兰店市、无名区1。其中,炮台镇的大部分区域浓度为10 Pbq,面积为2.66 km 2,东北方向部分区域浓度为100 Pbq,面积为0.03 km~2;普兰店市西南部区域浓度为10 Pbq,面积为8.00 km~2,东北部区域浓度为100 Pbq,面积为0.033 km 2;李店镇东北区域浓度为1 Pbq,面积为0.93km~2;无名区1南部区域浓度为1 Pbq,面积为4.50 km~2。 相似文献