定量风险评价标准探讨

围绕定量评价标准对风险的度量和制定风险评价标准的基本原则等方面的进展和存在的问题进行了初步的探讨，分析归纳了国处有着的个人风险和社会风险标准，提出具有重大危害性的工业设施对员工或公众造成的风险，不应显著高于人们在日常生活中接触到其他风险；每年１０＾－６的死亡风险是可以忽略不计的个人风险水平等观点。     

城市区域环境噪声标准适用区域划分新方法的研究

根据国家环保局关于区域环境噪声标准划分的规定，本文提出了区域环境噪声标准定量化划分的模型。该模型综合了城市自然因素和噪声污染因素。模型在南通市区域环境噪声标准划分中得到了验证。     

事故树定量分析与安全指标的数学模型的建立

阐述了在该课题研究过程中，提出的一些新概念、新定义和新方法     

Threshold values for domino effects caused by blast wave interaction with process equipment

The present study focuses on the definition and assessment of overpressure threshold values for the damage to equipment caused by blast waves originated by primary accidental scenarios. A revision of literature data and of the available damage probability models was carried out. Threshold values were proposed for different categories of process equipment, taking into account either damage levels or release intensities following the loss of containment. Specific threshold values for domino effect were also proposed.     

综合安全评价(FSA)方法

为提高国际海运安全管理的决策水平,国际海事组织(IMO)接受并倡导由英国海运界提出的综合安全评价(FSA)方法,笔者对FSA方法作了本质性分析和应用性研究。阐述了FSA的由来,5个组成步骤及相互关系和流程,揭示了FSA与风险管理和安全系统工程的渊源;介绍了危险识别的7种工具;对步骤二“风险评估”重点引入了半定量分析方法和定量分析方法,并用集合论观点讨论了事故频率和后果严重度的计算方法;介绍了风险控制方案的“成本与效益评估”的数学模型;归纳了FSA方法的优缺点。指出FSA是一种集风险评价和成本/效益评估于一体,兼顾技术性与经济性,可广泛兼容具体评价方法和普遍适用各类风险评价的框架性方法,但具体应用需要有效整合适用的定性和定量方法。     

Development of machine learning based prediction models for hazardous properties of chemical mixtures

Lower flammability limit (LFL), upper flammability limit (UFL), auto-ignition temperature (AIT) and flash point (FP) are crucial hazardous properties for fire and explosion hazards assessment and consequence analysis. In this study, a comprehensive prediction model set was constructed by using expanded chemical mixture databases of chemical mixture hazardous properties. Machine learning based gradient boosting quantitative structure-property relationship (GB-QSPR) method is implemented for the first time to improve the model performance and prediction accuracy. The result shows that all developed models have significantly higher accuracy than other regular QSPR models, with the 5-fold cross-validation RMSE of LFL, UFL, AIT, and FP models being 1.06, 1.14, 1.08, and 1.17, respectively. All developed QSPR models can be used to estimate reliable chemical mixture hazardous properties and provide useful guidance in chemical mixture hazard assessment and consequence analysis.     

吉林省农业病虫害发生规律与防治效果的定量分析

本文以定量分析为主要手段，详细研究了吉林省农业病虫害发生的时间过程规律和空间分布规律，深入探讨了环境因子对农业病虫害的影响，综合评价了病虫害防治工作的效果。     

均压防灭火定量分析技术研究及其应用

均压是防治煤矿自然发火的主要措施之一。针对均压应用中的定性分析方法及两点式均压方法的不足,提出了均压防灭火定量分析技术并开发了与采空区相连两个工作面间均压的计算机摸拟计算程序。阐述了程序均压原理、内容及应用实例。这项技术具有创新性和应用推广价值,可以提高均压防灭火技术应用的经济性和安全性     

Individual risk analysis of high-pressure natural gas pipelines

Transmission pipelines carrying natural gas are not typically within secure industrial sites, but are routed across land out of the ownership of the pipeline company. If the natural gas is accidentally released and ignited, the hazard distance associated with these pipelines to people and property is known to range from under 20 m for a smaller pipeline at lower pressure to up to over 300 m for a larger pipeline at higher pressure. Therefore, pipeline operators and regulators must address the associated public safety issues.This paper focuses on a method to explicitly calculate the individual risk of a transmission pipeline carrying natural gas. The method is based on reasonable accident scenarios for route planning related to the pipeline's proximity to the surrounding buildings. The minimum proximity distances between the pipeline and buildings are based on the rupture of the pipeline, with the distances chosen to correspond to a radiation level of approximately 32 kW/m². In the design criteria for steel pipelines for high-pressure gas transmission (IGE/TD/1), the minimum building proximity distances for rural areas are located between individual risk values of 10⁻⁵ and 10⁻⁶. Therefore, the risk from a natural gas transmission pipeline is low compared with risk at the building separated minimum distance from chemical industries.     

Contribution of the Kodama and 4S pathways to the dibenzothiophene biodegradation in different coastal wetlands under different C/N ratios

Dibenzothiophene (DBT) degradation mechanisms and the transformation of pathways during the incubation of three types of coastal sediments with C/N ratios ranging from 1 to 9 were investigated. The DBT degradation efficiencies were clearly improved with increasing C/N ratio in reed wetland sediments, tidal wetlands sediments and estuary wetland sediments. The quantitative response relationships between DBT degradation rates and related functional genes demonstrate that the Kodama pathway-related gene groups were dominant factors at low C/N ratios, while the 4S-related gene groups mainly determined the degradation rate when the C/N ratio was up to 5. Network analysis also shows that the pathway shifts from the Kodama pathway to the 4S pathway occurred through changes in the connections between functional genomes and rates. Furthermore, there were competition and collaboration between the Kodama and 4S pathways. The 4S pathway-related bacteria were more active in estuary wetland sediments compared with reed wetland sediments and tidal wetland sediments. The higher degradation efficiency in estuary wetland sediments may indicate the greater participation of the 4S pathway in the DBT biodegradation reaction. And the effects of ring cleavage of Kodama pathway caused more complete metabolizing of DBT.