AERMOD与估算模式在环境影响评价中的应用与比较

采用AERMOD和估算模式两种预测模式对同一生活垃圾填埋场进行了预测。比较两种预测结果可以看出,在污染源、预测范围、运行周期相同的情况下,敏感点处的落地浓度均与排放源强呈正比,与距离呈反比。预测结果同时说明,估算模式是一种保守的预测模式,其预测结果比AERMOD模式大,可作为进一步预测模式的有效补充。     

The near-closure of a lagoon in western Iceland: how accurate were predictions of impacts on environment and biota?

The Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) project instigated in connection with the near-closure of the large fjord-like lagoon Gilsfjörður in sub-arctic western Iceland with a road is described and discussed. Three phases were involved: a survey of pre-impact conditions of areas possibly affected as well as control areas, predictions of impacts of the road, and assessment of impacts up to 5–6 years after completion of the project. Emphasis was placed on birds and benthic flora and fauna. Although several predictions were upheld, others were not. The most unexpected changes were the elimination of kelp forest and some associated fauna inside the road as well as from large areas outside it. Feeding areas of the knot (Calidris canutus) and female eiders (Somateria mollissima) with ducklings also changed in unexpected ways. Unforeseen changes can partly be traced to inadequate knowledge of communities and their functioning in the area. The ecological requirements of many species involved, e.g. with respect to salinity, were imperfectly known. The predictions of engineers on the effects of the project on physical factors were not as accurate or detailed as desired. Some critical predictions of the engineers failed to make an impact on the ecologists, who then failed to predict some major changes in the biota, such as the disappearance of kelp forest outside the road. This study highlights some problems probably shared by many EIAs: (a) the near impossibility of finding suitable control areas, (b) the lack of ecological understanding of even common species, and possibly (c) inadequate communication between engineers and ecologists.     

Landscape ecological assessment: a tool for integrating biodiversity issues in strategic environmental assessment and planning

To achieve a sustainable development, impacts on biodiversity of urbanisation, new infrastructure projects and other land use changes must be considered on landscape and regional scales. This requires that important decisions are made after a systematic evaluation of environmental impacts. Landscape ecology can provide a conceptual framework for the assessment of consequences of long-term development processes like urbanisation on biodiversity components, and for evaluating and visualising the impacts of alternative planning scenarios. The aim of this paper was to develop methods for integrating biodiversity issues in planning and strategic environmental assessment in an urbanising environment, on landscape and regional levels. In order to test developed methods, a case study was conducted in the region of Stockholm, the capital of Sweden, and the study area embraced the city centre, suburbs and peri-urban areas. Focal species were tested as indicators of habitat quality, quantity and connectivity in the landscape. Predictive modelling of habitat distribution in geographic information systems involved the modelling of focal species occurrences based on empirical data, incorporated in a landscape ecological decision support system. When habitat models were retrieved, they were applied on future planning scenarios in order to predict and assess the impacts on focal species. The scenario involving a diffuse exploitation pattern had the greatest negative impacts on the habitat networks of focal species. The scenarios with concentrated exploitation also had negative impacts, although they were possible to mitigate quite easily. The predictions of the impacts on habitats networks of focal species made it possible to quantify, integrate and visualise the effects of urbanisation scenarios on aspects of biodiversity on a landscape level.