Oil spill model development and application for emergency response system

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Denitrification potential enhancement by addition of external carbon sources in a pre-denitrification process

The aim of this study is to investigate the denitrification potential enhancement by addition of external carbon sources and to estimate the denitrification potential for the predenitrification system using nitrate utilization rate （NUR） batch tests. It is shown that the denitrification potential can be substantially increased with the addition of three external carbon sources, i.e. methanol, ethanol, and acetate, and the denitrification rates of ethanol, acetate, and methanol reached up to 9.6, 12, and 3.2 mgN/（g VSS.h）, respectively, while that of starch wastewater was only 0.74 mgN/（g VSS,h）. By comparison, ethanol was found to be the best external carbon source. NUR batch tests with starch wastewater and waste ethanol were carried out. The denitfification potential increased from 5.6 to 16.5 mg NO3-N/L owing to waste ethanol addition. By means of NUR tests, the wastewater characteristics and kinetic parameters can be estimated, which are used to determine the denitrification potential of wastewater, to calculate the denitrification potential of the plant and to predict the nitrate effluent quality, as well as provide information for developing carbon dosage control strategy.     

焦化行业苯并芘排放量与厂界达标预测分析

论文以某100万吨/年焦化项目为例,分析其在不同地形和风速参数条件下苯并芘排放量,预测不同条件下距离焦炉炉体中心-1000～1000米范围内各网格点的苯并芘超标概率,最终得出风速、地形参数对苯并芘浓度超标概率的影响.     

工贸行业安全生产预警指数数学模型构建

通过对《冶金等工贸行业安全生产标准化基本规范评分细则》的仔细解读,将安全预警指标分解成13个一级指标和38个二级指标,对应指标给以相应的经过归一化处理后的权重。针对这十三个安全预警指标建立了数学量化模型,给出了计算方法和安全预警指数的状态划分。结合GM(1,1)灰色预测理论和等维新息模型,构建适合工贸企业的预测模型,对未来的安全生产预警指数作出预测,帮助工贸企业实时掌握安全生产动态,做到科学合理决策。     

建筑工程生产事故死亡人数时间序列分析

为研究建筑工程安全生产事故死亡人数的变化规律,采用时间序列分析方法,分析了建筑安全事故死亡人数时间序列上的趋势性规律,通过数据预处理和模型的识别与检验,最终建立了安全事故死亡人数预测模型。对全国2005—2014年建筑工程安全生产事故造成的死亡人数进行了分析和预测。结果表明:ARIMA模型各年预测值与实际值误差率为0.393,相比灰色模型和BP神经网络模型误差率最小。总体上说,ARIMA模型较适用于随机性较大的数据的趋势预测。     

中国入境旅游市场的多元回归预测

为了准确预测我国入境旅客的规模,收集了1978～2003年中国入境游客量的值,运用多元回归分析的方法,并借助SPSS软件,对我国入境游客的规模进行了预测,建立了以预测年前3年的入境游客量为自变量的多元回归方程:X(t)=251.067 0.178(t-3)-0.441X(t-2) 1.286X(t-1).与传统预测的时间序列等方法比较,该方法模拟、预测精度更高,更符合入境游客量的变化规模,同时可通过增加每年的实际值,动态更新方程,使之更能反映游客量的变化.     

In the mixed world of predictive biology—Contradiction or support

Statistical prediction is a tool and aim in ecology and wildlife management and conservation. A prediction may either be supported by or contradicted by observations of an unknown set of observations. A contradiction occurs if the prediction is not included within the range of the unknown observations, i.e. the prediction misses the cloud of observations completely. Mixed-effects models, frequently used for statistical assessment of clustered data, carry information needed for calculating the probability of such contradictions. Here we present a new versatile statistic, the probability of contradiction (P (Contra)), that describes how often we would anticipate a new cluster of observations contradicting our predictions. Some benefits of P (Contra) are: (1) easy to calculate and intuitive interpretation, (2) comparability between datasets, (3) inclusion of residual correlation, (4) summary of the multitude of information from mixed models into one statistics, and (5) applicable to local mixed-effect models.     

尾矿坝溃坝模型研究及应用

根据多个大坝的实际溃决资料,提出尾矿坝溃坝的数学模型,该模型考虑尾矿的物理力学性质及其在流动中的变形,适合溃坝砂流下泄流量变幅大的特点。并就尾矿坝溃坝后泥石流对坝下游的影响提出预测的方法,该方法确定了泄砂总量、溃坝口平均宽度、坝址最大砂流量、坝址流量过程线等溃坝的重要参数。最后利用数学模型对某尾矿库溃坝砂流进行了预测,并指出该坝下游人员的撤离高程,为防灾减灾以及保护人民生命财产安全等起到了积极作用。     

广东人口粮食动态模型的建立及土地生产力分析

对我省的人口发展和粮食生产进行了系统的分析和研究，结果表明广东人口将在2005年底达到8000万人，比过去人口的增长速度明显加快；而粮食生产却不容乐观，到2015年最多只能达到年产2670万t的水平，人均粮食约280 kg，比目前水平略低。从长远来考虑，我省的粮食问题将更显不足，而耕地又逐年减少，故提高土地利用率和生产水平是目前迫切需要解决的实际问题。     

电网环境保护管理信息系统的设计与实现

为了对输变电工程中的大量资料进行信息化动态管理,对电磁环境参数进行预测分析,为电网决策、管理、运行提供依据,建立电网环境保护信息管理系统。阐述系统的构建、实现及运用Matlab工具进行电磁环境参数预测模型的求解,通过系统集成完成信息管理和预测分析模型系统的开发,实现电网环境保护的决策分析。以可听噪声预测模型构建为例,在C#.NET平台上调用Matlab工具箱,实现了输电线路可听噪声的预测分析。