山东口岸进口再生资源环保项目不合格情况分析

通过对2008年山东口岸进口废塑料、废金属、废纸、纺织品废物等主要再生资源环保项目不合格情况的分析,剖析了出现环保项目不合格的主要原因,归纳了出现环保项目不合格再生资源在来源国家、境外供货企业上的分布特点,有针对性地提出了降低进口再生资源环保项目不合格率的建议。     

Limitations of Gravity Models in Predicting the Spread of Eurasian Watermilfoil

Abstract: The effects of non‐native invasive species are costly and environmentally damaging, and resources to slow their spread and reduce their effects are scarce. Models that accurately predict where new invasions will occur could guide the efficient allocation of resources to slow colonization. We assessed the accuracy of a model that predicts the probability of colonization of lakes in Wisconsin by Eurasian watermilfoil (Myriophyllum spicatum). We based this predictive model on 9 years (1990–1999) of sequence data of milfoil colonization of lakes larger than 25 ha (n =1803). We used milfoil colonization sequence data from 2000 to 2006 to test whether the model accurately predicted the number of lakes that actually were colonized from among the 200 lakes identified as being most likely to be colonized. We found that a lake's predicted probability of colonization was not correlated with whether a lake actually was colonized. Given the low predictability of colonization of specific lakes, we compared the efficacy of preventing milfoil from leaving occupied sites, which does not require predicting colonization probability, with protecting vacant sites from being colonized, which does require predicting colonization probability. Preventing organisms from leaving colonized sites reduced the likelihood of spread more than protecting vacant sites. Although we focused on the spread of a single species in a particular region, our results show the shortcomings of gravity models in predicting the spread of numerous non‐native species to a variety of locations via a wide range of vectors.     

A weed risk assessment model for use as a biosecurity tool evaluating plant introductions

New plant taxa from around the world continue to be imported into Australia and New Zealand. Many of these taxa have the potential to become agricultural or environmental weeds and this risk needs to be assessed before allowing their entry. A weed risk assessment system is described that uses information on a taxon's current weed status in other parts of the world, climate and environmental preferences, and biological attributes. The system is designed to be operated by quarantine personnel via a user-friendly computer interface.The model was tested against experts' scores for weediness for 370 taxa present in Australia, representing both weeds and useful taxa from agriculture, the environment, and other sectors. The model was judged on its ability to correctly ‘reject’ weeds, ‘accept’ non-weeds, and generate a low proportion of taxa which could not be decisively categorised, termed ‘evaluate’. More than 70% of the taxa were rejected or accepted. All taxa classified as serious weeds, and most minor weeds, were rejected or required further evaluation, while only 7% of non-weeds were rejected. The model was modified to New Zealand conditions and evaluated against the opinions of several groups of experts and against economic measures. The model produced a weediness score very similar to the mean of the experts scores. The latter were highly variable: agriculturalists tended to accept known weeds, conservationists tended to reject most adventive taxa, and only botanists produced scores similar to the model. The model scores also tended to be independent of economic value as measured in this study. The model could be adapted for use as a screening tool in any region of the world.     

Mother Nature versus human nature: public compliance with evacuation and quarantine

Effectively controlling the spread of contagious illnesses has become a critical focus of disaster planning. It is likely that quarantine will be a key part of the overall public health strategy utilised during a pandemic, an act of bioterrorism or other emergencies involving contagious agents. While the United States lacks recent experience of large-scale quarantines, it has considerable accumulated experience of large-scale evacuations. Risk perception, life circumstance, work-related issues, and the opinions of influential family, friends and credible public spokespersons all play a role in determining compliance with an evacuation order. Although the comparison is not reported elsewhere to our knowledge, this review of the principal factors affecting compliance with evacuations demonstrates many similarities with those likely to occur during a quarantine. Accurate identification and understanding of barriers to compliance allows for improved planning to protect the public more effectively.     

湖北四种主要林业检疫性有害生物危险性评估

通过对国家公告发布的在湖北有分布的4种主要林业检疫性有害生物分析表明:4种林业检疫性有害生物在湖北都具有进一步传播的可能性、较强的适生性和扩散蔓延的趋势,对湖北的经济和生态环境建设构成严重的影响和威胁。定量分析表明:松材线虫病、冠瘿病、猕猴桃细菌性溃疡病、草坪草褐斑病在湖北的危险性R值分别为2.33、2.28、2.04、2.02,说明在湖北属于高度危险的林业有害生物。同时,从四个方面提出了加强其风险管理的对策。