排放系数法估算污染物排放总量

掌握污染物总量动态变化情况，采用排放系统法进行估算是有效的方法。利用１９９５年上海乡镇工业污染调查数据对排放系数进行验证，说明应如何选用排放系数。     

AERMOD与估算模式在环境影响评价中的应用与比较

采用AERMOD和估算模式两种预测模式对同一生活垃圾填埋场进行了预测。比较两种预测结果可以看出,在污染源、预测范围、运行周期相同的情况下,敏感点处的落地浓度均与排放源强呈正比,与距离呈反比。预测结果同时说明,估算模式是一种保守的预测模式,其预测结果比AERMOD模式大,可作为进一步预测模式的有效补充。     

Estimates of health benefits due to reductions in ambient NO2 levels

A method is presented here by which the actual numbers of individuals in the U.S. population who would be expected to suffer respiratory illness as a result of exposure to ambient nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) concentrations in excess of the Federally-designated ambient air quality standard can be estimated. At the same time we have attempted to quantify how these adverse health effects would be alleviated by various degrees of reductions in current ambient concentrations. In addition, the health benefit expected to be derived by various NO_x emission control strategies will be examined utilizing the health benefit estimation method presented.It is estimated that there were approximately 33.2×10⁶ excess cases of respiratory illnesses in the U.S. in 1973 associated with ambient NO₂ concentrations in excess of the national ambient standard. A reduction of approximately 50 to 60 percent below 1973 NO₂ levels is needed to essentially eliminate excess respiratory illness associated with ambient NO₂ concentration.     

Soil organic carbon dynamics of croplands in European Russia: estimates from the “model of humus balance”

The Model of Humus Balance was used to estimate the influence of climate effects and changing agricultural practices on carbon (C) levels in soddy–podzolic soils in the Russian Federation for the years 2000–2050. The model was linked with a spatial database containing soil, climate and farming management layers for identification of spatial change of C sequestration potential. Analysis of relationships between C, soil texture and climate indicated that compared with a business-as-usual scenario, adaptation measures could increase the number of polygons storing soil organic carbon (SOC) by 2010–2020. The rate of possible C loss is sensitive to the different climate scenarios, with a maximum potential for SOC accumulation expected in 2030–2040, thereafter decreasing to 2050. The effect is most pronounced for the arid part of the study area under the emission scenario with the highest rate of increase in atmospheric CO₂ concentration, supporting findings from the dynamic SOC model, RothC. C sequestration during the study period was permanent for clay and clay loam soils with a C content of more than 2%, suggesting that C sequestration should be focused on highly fertile, fine-textured soils. We also show that spatial heterogeneity of soil texture can be a source of uncertainty for estimates of SOC dynamics at the regional scale. Figures in color are available at     

A comparison of chemical MSW compositional data between China and Denmark

Chemical waste compositions are important for municipal solid waste management, as they determine the pollution potentials from different waste strategies. A representative dataset for chemical characteristics of individual waste fractions is frequently required to assess chemical waste composition, but it is usually reported in developed countries and not in developing countries. In this study, a dataset for Chinese waste was established through careful data screening and assessment, named as CN dataset. Meanwhile, a dataset for Danish waste (DK dataset) was also summarized based on previous studies. In order to quantitatively evaluate the reliabilities of CN and DK datasets, the chemical waste compositions in four Chinese cities were estimated by utilizing both of them, respectively. It is indicated that the usage of CN datasets led to significantly lower discrepancies from the actual values based on laboratory analysis in most cases. Within the datasets, the moisture contents of food waste, paper, textiles, and plastics, the carbon content of food waste, as well as the oxygen content of plastics would induce significant divergences, which should be paid special attention when gathering the information. In addition, the fractional waste compositions in China showed similar features with other developing countries but differ significantly with developed countries. Thus the above-mentioned conclusions could also be true in other developing countries.     

Kinetic parameter estimation for decomposition of organic peroxides by means of DSC measurements

The thermal stability of organic peroxides (cumene hydroperoxide 80 wt% and dicumyl peroxide) was studied by means of calorimetric measurement (DSC, TA Q1000) in an isotherm mode and a dynamic mode. Analysis of power profiles released in the isothermal mode was combined with the analysis of the decomposed compounds by a gas chromatograph/mass spectrometer (GC/MS) to determine the reaction mechanisms corresponding to each of the two reactions. In this work, a methodology for estimating kinetic parameters was based on the comparison of the power profile (dynamic mode) given by the model to that obtained experimentally by changing the parameters values. Parameter estimation is achieved using the mixed estimation method where a genetic algorithm is combined with a locally convergent method.     

秦皇岛市工业企业需水量零增长预期分析

本文在对“九五”期间秦皇岛市工业用水情况认真分析的基础上,按照秦皇岛市“十五”计划和2010年远景目标对秦皇岛市2005年和2010年未来工业企业需水量进行了预测;同时对2020年和2030年进行了展望,综合分析预测的结果,提出了节水措施的建议,并对工业需水量的零增长进行了预期分析。     

我国职业伤害经济损失研究

结合国情 ,在全面、系统地研究了我国工业企业职业伤害的经济损失的基础上 ,对需要明确的若干问题进行了阐述。主要内容有 :国内外职业伤害的经济损失研究现状 ;职业伤害的经济损失的调查、统计与分析技术 ;工伤事故的经济损失估算方法及其主要规律等。     

A Comparison of Bayesian Methods for Uncertainty Analysis in Hydraulic and Hydrodynamic Modeling

We evaluate and compare the performance of Bayesian Monte Carlo (BMC), Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), and the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) for uncertainty analysis in hydraulic and hydrodynamic modeling (HHM) studies. The methods are evaluated in a synthetic 1D wave routing exercise based on the diffusion wave model, and in a multidimensional hydrodynamic study based on the Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code to simulate estuarine circulation processes in Weeks Bay, Alabama. Results show that BMC and MCMC provide similar estimates of uncertainty. The posterior parameter densities computed by both methods are highly consistent, as well as the calibrated parameter estimates and uncertainty bounds. Although some studies suggest that MCMC is more efficient than BMC, our results did not show a clear difference between the performance of the two methods. This seems to be due to the low number of model parameters typically involved in HHM studies, and the use of the same likelihood function. In fact, for these studies, the implementation of BMC results simpler and provides similar results to MCMC. The results of GLUE are, on the other hand, less consistent to the results of BMC and MCMC in both applications. The posterior probability densities tend to be flat and similar to the uniform priors, which can result in calibrated parameter estimates centered in the parametric space.     

市政脱水污泥的间接干化动力学研究

以食用油为热介质,在不同油浴温度下,对市政脱水污泥进行间接干化试验,推导出间接干化动力学模型,并对收集的冷凝液进行水质分析。结果表明:冷凝液为高浓度有机废水,TOC占TC的比例为73.2010%~75.5983%;VFAs的主要组分是乙酸、丙酸、丁酸、异丁酸、异戊酸和正戊酸,其中异丁酸所占比例最高(45.597%),其次为丙酸(24.554%);通过动力学模型的参数估值,Z模型(n≠1)因高R~2值和低RSS值而能很好的预测间接干化过程。