广东核电站厂址降水特征分析

介绍广东核电站厂址降水特性分析的方法学，给出降水的气侯学统计以及降水率、降水持续时间的分布特征．     

HYDROELECTRIC POWER AND SCENIC PROVISIONS OF THE 1950 NIAGARA TREATY1

ABSTRACT: An important international Niagara River management issue concerns allocation of the average 202,000 cubic feet per second river discharge for hydroelectric power and scenic purposes. Major water diversions from Niagara Falls are necessary for power production. Flow is allocated by the 1950 Niagara Treaty which is intended to maximize power benefits and preserve and enhance the scenic fals spectacle. This paper examines the extent to which the Treaty objectives have been achieved. Based on analyses of government documents, engineering data, and falls-viewing patterns, it is concluded that the 1950 Treaty led to enhancement of the falls spectacle and increased power generation. But significant additional power diversions probably are attainable without adverse effect upon the existing falls spectacle. Reducing daytime summer Horseshoe Falls flow and scheduling spring and autumn flow according to viewing patterns are possible means of increasing power diversions. Existing generating facilities could use considerably more water and the value of additional Niagara hydroelectricity is very high in terms of generation-cost savings over alternative power sources. Because of the cultural importance of the falls, Treaty modifications to permit increased power diversions are not recommended without prior public opinion sampling and on-site viewing experiments. These findings highlight the need for more careful study before long-term international agreements are concluded and illustrate the need for more flexible treaty arrangements to permit periodic adjustments for changing conditions.     

Falls and fall prevention programmes in developing countries: environmental scan for the adaptation of the Canadian Falls prevention curriculum for developing countries

Problem

Falls in older persons in developing countries are poorly understood, and falls prevention and health promotion programmes for this population are largely lacking.

Methods

A systematic review was carried out of relevant literature on falls and prevention programmes, and falls prevention education, and a scan undertaken of health promotion programmes for older persons in a representative country - South Africa.

Results

Studies on the risk and prevalence of falls are largely retrospective and hospital-based, with varied methodology, including study period, sampling method and sample size. Falls prevalence is based largely on self-reports in studies on general trauma in all age groups. Falls incidence varies from 10.1% to 54%. No reports could be traced on sustained falls prevention or health promotion programmes.

Conclusion

Scant research has been conducted and little preventive education offered on falls in older persons. Adaptation of the Canadian Falls Prevention Curriculum for developing countries will help to fill gaps in knowledge and practice.

Impact on industry

With rapid increase in the populations of older persons in developing countries, research on age related disorders such as falls is required to guide policy and management of falls.     

Using the RE-AIM framework to translate a research-based falls prevention intervention into a community-based program: lessons learned

Problem

Exercise-based research interventions demonstrate reduced risk and rates of falls for community dwelling older adults; however, little is known about effective mechanisms for the translation, implementation, and maintenance of these interventions in community settings.

Method

The RE-AIM framework was used to assess the translatability of an effective exercise-based research intervention in a community setting. Questions included: Reach — Would the target population attend? Effectiveness — What was the adherence and compliance to the program? Were there individual improvements in falls risk factors? Adoption: Would staff at the center adopt the program and offer it past the funding period? Implementation — What adaptations, including optimal frequency and duration, should be made to meet the community needs, still adhere to core elements and achieve similar outcomes? Maintenance — Would the program be sustained by our community partners?

Discussion

The process of translating a controlled research intervention targeting older adults at risk of falls into a community setting was challenging. Licensed professionals developed the infrastructure to safely and effectively deliver the program. The end product was highly appealing program to our target audience, resulted in improved outcomes and was successfully adopted and maintained by the community partner.

Summary

Partnerships between community and healthcare providers are key to successful implementation of falls prevention interventions. Lessons learned from this experience can be applied to the translation of future exercise-based falls prevention interventions.     

Validating an evidence-based, self-rated fall risk questionnaire (FRQ) for older adults

Background

Falls are a common, serious, and often unrecognized problem facing older adults. The objective of this study was to provide an initial clinical and statistical validation for a public health strategy of fall risk self-assessment by older adults using a Fall Risk Questionnaire (FRQ).

Methods

Adults age 65 + (n = 40) were recruited at a Los Angeles Veterans Affairs (VA) medical facility and at a local assisted living facility. Participants completed the FRQ self-assessment and results were compared to a “gold standard” of a clinical evaluation of risks using the American/British Geriatrics Society guidelines to assess independent predictors of falls: history of previous falls, fear of falling, gait/balance, muscle weakness, incontinence, sensation and proprioception, depression, vision, and medications. For the comparison, we used an iterative statistical approach, weighing items based on relative risk.

Results

There was strong agreement between the FRQ and clinical evaluation (kappa = .875, p < .0001). Individual item kappa values ranged from .305-.832. After dropping one FRQ item (vision risk) because of inadequate agreement with the clinical evaluation (kappa = .139, p = .321), the final FRQ had good concurrent validity.

Conclusions

The FRQ goes beyond existing screening tools in that it is based on both evidence and clinical acceptability and has been initially validated with clinical examination data. A larger validation with longitudinal follow-up should determine the actual strength of the FRQ in predicting future falls.     

The injury problem among older adults: mortality, morbidity and costs

The Journal of Safety Research has partnered with the National Center for Injury Prevention and Control at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in Atlanta, Georgia, USA, to briefly report on some of the latest findings in the research community. This report is the seventh in a series of CDC articles.     

MATHEMATICAL SIMULATIONS OF THE TOCCOA FALLS,GEORGIA, DAM-BREAK FLOOD1

ABSTRACT: Four dam-break models were selected for testing with an observed data set from the November 6, 1977, disaster at Toccoa Falls, Georgia. The Kelly Barnes Dam failure occurred with a 35-ft head of water and produced a peak discharge of 23,000 ft³/s. The selected models included: (1) Modified Puls (MP), (2) U. S. Army Corps of Engineers Gradually Varied Unsteady Flow Profiles (USTFLO), (3) National Weather Service's Dam-Break Flood Forecast (DBFF), and (4) U. S. Geological Survey's method of characteristics (MOC) coupled with a general purpose streamflow simulation (J879DB). Achieving a successful simulation was easiest with the MP model. The DBFF model required a moderate effort while the MOC-J879DB models required some data alterations and considerable effort. The USTFLO model failed to simulate this test case. In the stream segment near the dam, the computed peak stages were generally within 5 feet of the observed high water marks. Elsewhere, the peak stage results were much better, generally within 2 feet. The peak discharges computed by the models were generally within 20 percent of discharges estimated by slope area and contracted opening measurements, except near the dam where the MOC-J879DB model's results was 80 percent too high.     

Comparison of risk factors for falls from height between commercial and residential roofers

Introduction

The purpose of this investigation was to compare commercial roofers and residential roofers in terms of their behaviors, beliefs, working conditions, and attitudes toward the use of fall protection devices, which could lead to fall accidents.

Methods

A cross-sectional sample of 252 roofers participated in the survey in the Midwest (Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan, Indiana, and Iowa).

Results

Residential roofers were more likely to fall (adjusted prevalence ratio = 1.57, 95% CI = 0.86, 2.27) than commercial roofers. Existence of fall protection programs, enforcement of fall protection device use, actual use of fall protection devices, work type, company size, and race/ethnicity were significantly associated with fall accidents.

Impact on industry

This study adds insight into fall accidents from roofs in the construction industry and provides industry-specific cautions against fall accidents that can be reflected in regulatory agency implementation.