黑道凶日研究

本文提出的优势期和优势值是灾害年内出现机会最多的日期和强度，其中优势期就是黑道凶日。统计表明，黑道凶日位于节气日和节气之间的黄金分割日及其附近，在时空分布上具有许多特点。     

薇甘菊浸提液对福寿螺主要器官组织损伤的扫描电镜观察

采用薇甘菊（Mikania micrantha H.B.K.）的乙酸乙酯浸提液对福寿螺（Pomacea canaliculata）进行浸杀,通过扫描电镜观察福寿螺头足部、外套膜及肝脏组织的损伤状况,探讨薇甘菊化感物质对福寿螺器官组织结构的影响。经过薇甘菊质量浓度为100mg·L^-1提取液浸杀2d后,福寿螺主要器官出现了明显的组织损伤。头足部肌肉组织出现明显的杂乱丝条状并有断裂,部分有侵蚀剥落,表现为较大的组织缺损;外套膜有大量的细胞被浸润,呈疏松不整齐的结构;肝脏表面粗糙,凹凸相间的皱褶形成起伏不平的组织,其间有深浅不一的裂痕,并有侵蚀孔状损伤。扫描电镜的观察结果可为探讨薇甘菊浸提液对福寿螺的毒杀机理提供一定的依据。     

废气排放量灰色建模新法初探

在研究和指出灰色建模常规方法理论缺陷的基础上,结合某化工厂废气排放预测实践,初步探讨和提出了将原始动态数据序列经过线性或指数变换,采用黄金分割法选取背景值的直接建模方法。初步研究表明,该方法较灰色建模常规方法在改善序列随机性、提高预测精度等方面,具有较明显的优越性和合理性,拓宽了GM(1,1)模型在环境科学领域中的应用范围。      

Ontogeny of provisioning in two populations of wild golden lion tamarins (Leontopithecus rosalia)

Provisioning weaned young is an important part of the cooperative rearing system of marmosets and tamarins (family: Callitrichidae). Juvenile callitrichids receive a substantial proportion of their diet from all adult group members, whereas juveniles of most other primate species only receive food from the mother infrequently via scrounging. We conducted a longitudinal study of provisioning to 21 young wild golden lion tamarins through their first year of life in two Brazilian reserves. Juveniles were predicted to experience higher provisioning rates at the site with mature forest (the presumed ancestral habitat) and in territories that contained a higher proportion of preferred habitat within the mature forest reserve. Key measures of provisioning did not differ substantially between habitat types. The rates at which juveniles begged for food were very similar across habitats, while the influence of habitat on the rates at which juveniles received food was small and varied across age groups. The most pronounced differences between the reserves were: adult resistance to food-transfer attempts was less frequent, food-offering calls before food transfer were more frequent, and the proportion of prey provisioned was higher in the reserve in which earlier successional-stage forest predominated. Within the mature forest reserve, begging success of young juveniles covaried positively with preferred habitat. Rather than overt caretaker–offspring conflict, an information–feedback loop between juveniles and adults appears to drive provisioning changes as juveniles mature. Direct measures of resource abundance are needed to help clarify the mechanisms by which forest successional stage influences provisioning.     

海岛旅游绿色发展生态补偿标准研究——以浙江舟山普陀旅游金三角为例

绿色发展是强调人与自然平等、人与自然和谐发展的新可持续发展观。海岛旅游绿色发展有利于保护旅游目的地的海洋生态系统与森林生态系统健康和减少旅游业对资源与环境的压力。运用海洋渔业生态标签制度(MFELS)、生态系统服务付费(PES)和市场替换法(MRM),对海岛旅游绿色发展生态补偿问题进行了研究,其中,旅游碳排放增量生态补偿(增汇或碳汇)主要依据是污染者付费原则、环境友好型海产品生态补偿主要依据是保护者得到补偿原则、生态系统服务付费主要依据是受益者付费原则;并以舟山普陀旅游金三角为案例地,以问卷调查和访谈调查获取的数据为基础,以2013年为评价基准年份,对海岛旅游绿色发展的生态补偿标准进行了评估。结果表明:海岛旅游绿色发展可获得6.53×108元的生态补偿资金,游客平均承担110.43元/人次的生态补偿标准。     

Patch dynamics based on Prisoner's Dilemma game: superiority of golden rule

There has been much literature on ecological model of Prisoner's Dilemma (PD) game. This game illustrates that cooperation can evolve in situations where individuals tend to look after themselves. In order to explain some behaviors of altruism in animal societies, the strategy All Cooperate (AC), often called the Golden Rule, is more appropriate than other strategies. However, very little is known about the superiority of AC. In the present article, we study patch dynamics based on non-iterated PD game, applying two different methods: island and lattice models. Each patch is assumed to be either vacant or composed of a population of AC or All Defect (AD), where AD means a selfish strategy. Both models exhibit a phase transition between a phase where both AC and AD survive, and a phase where AD is extinct. The latter phase means that AC beats AD completely. In the case of lattice model, the extinction of AD easily occurs and the abundance of AC takes a larger value, compared with the island model. Our models can be also extended to general iterated PD game; we describe the reason why AC can outperform any other strategy.     

Mate guarding and territorial aggression vary with breeding synchrony in golden whistlers (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Pachycephala pectoralis</Emphasis>)

Male paternity assurance behaviour during the female fertile period has been widely documented amongst birds. In contrast, how sex-specific behavioural strategies vary with local breeding synchrony levels remains largely unknown. This is important because, in many species, intra-population patterns of extra-pair fertilisation rates, and hence cuckoldry risk, are known to vary with the number of simultaneously fertile females. Each sex may therefore differ in how they behave towards male conspecifics during different degrees of breeding synchrony. Here I provide evidence of such sex-specific differences in the golden whistler (Pachycephala pectoralis), a species in which within-pair paternity assurance is negatively associated with breeding synchrony. Via simulated territorial intrusions using decoy males, I show that males, but not females, increase levels of aggression to male intruders during periods of low synchrony, possibly because cuckoldry risk is greatest during this period. In addition, males appear to invest more effort into mate guarding after, but not before, territorial intrusions during this period. These inter-sexual differences may reflect conflicts in interest between the sexes, with females consistently showing interest in males during the fertile period regardless of synchrony levels and males investing more resources into expelling intruders when the risk of paternity loss is greatest. This study thus provides evidence that males may be able to detect variation in breeding synchrony and cuckoldry risk and adjust their paternity assurance behaviour accordingly.     

节事活动对苏州“东方水城”形象推广效应的分析——以“金鸡百花奖”落户苏州为例

通过市场抽样调查方法,以"金鸡百花奖"评奖基地永久落户苏州为例,分析了游客对苏州"东方水城"旅游新形象推广的效应感知,并在此基础上对节事活动效应的可持续发展进行了分析.研究结果表明,"金鸡百花奖"评奖基地永久落户苏州,推动苏州的经济增长、吸引更多旅游者来苏州和丰富苏州市民的文化生活是推动苏州最主要的方面.同时,通过整合与水有关的节事活动,有助于游客认知和宣传苏州的水城形象,延长游客停留时间.     

自驾游客对低碳旅游交通的意愿及其影响因素研究——以浙江舟山普陀金三角旅游区为例

运用问卷调查法和多分类Logistic回归模型,以舟山普陀金三角旅游区为案例地,对自驾游客对低碳旅游交通的意愿及其影响因素进行了研究.结果表明:在支持低碳旅游交通的939位自驾受访游客中,有25.77%的受访游客愿意选择旅游交通碳减排方式一(长途汽车),有35.46%的受访游客愿意选择旅游交通碳减排方式二(火车),有38.77%的受访游客愿意选择旅游交通碳补偿方式(交纳碳排放增量税用于植树造林).自驾游客旅游交通碳减少(碳减排和碳补偿)效果显著.各客源地用全部游客衡量,游客旅游交通的人均碳减少量处于12.548~28.516kg·人-1之间,短途客源地和中途客源地游客旅游交通的碳减少效果分别超过了50%和20%.客源地、学历、停留时间和收入对自驾游客选择旅游交通碳减排方式与选择旅游交通碳补偿方式具有显著影响.其中,个人年收入在10万元以上的自驾游客更愿意选择碳补偿方式.     

Assessing Risk to Birds from Industrial Wind Energy Development via Paired Resource Selection Models

When wildlife habitat overlaps with industrial development animals may be harmed. Because wildlife and people select resources to maximize biological fitness and economic return, respectively, we estimated risk, the probability of eagles encountering and being affected by turbines, by overlaying models of resource selection for each entity. This conceptual framework can be applied across multiple spatial scales to understand and mitigate impacts of industry on wildlife. We estimated risk to Golden Eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) from wind energy development in 3 topographically distinct regions of the central Appalachian Mountains of Pennsylvania (United States) based on models of resource selection of wind facilities (n = 43) and of northbound migrating eagles (n = 30). Risk to eagles from wind energy was greatest in the Ridge and Valley region; all 24 eagles that passed through that region used the highest risk landscapes at least once during low altitude flight. In contrast, only half of the birds that entered the Allegheny Plateau region used highest risk landscapes and none did in the Allegheny Mountains. Likewise, in the Allegheny Mountains, the majority of wind turbines (56%) were situated in poor eagle habitat; thus, risk to eagles is lower there than in the Ridge and Valley, where only 1% of turbines are in poor eagle habitat. Risk within individual facilities was extremely variable; on average, facilities had 11% (SD 23; range = 0–100%) of turbines in highest risk landscapes and 26% (SD 30; range = 0–85%) of turbines in the lowest risk landscapes. Our results provide a mechanism for relocating high‐risk turbines, and they show the feasibility of this novel and highly adaptable framework for managing risk of harm to wildlife from industrial development. Evaluación del Riesgo para las Aves por el Desarrollo de Energía Eólica Industrial Mediante Modelos de Selección de Recursos Pareados.