Near-term forecasts of stream temperature using deep learning and data assimilation in support of management decisions

Deep learning (DL) models are increasingly used to make accurate hindcasts of management-relevant variables, but they are less commonly used in forecasting applications. Data assimilation (DA) can be used for forecasts to leverage real-time observations, where the difference between model predictions and observations today is used to adjust the model to make better predictions tomorrow. In this use case, we developed a process-guided DL and DA approach to make 7-day probabilistic forecasts of daily maximum water temperature in the Delaware River Basin in support of water management decisions. Our modeling system produced forecasts of daily maximum water temperature with an average root mean squared error (RMSE) from 1.1 to 1.4°C for 1-day-ahead and 1.4 to 1.9°C for 7-day-ahead forecasts across all sites. The DA algorithm marginally improved forecast performance when compared with forecasts produced using the process-guided DL model alone (0%–14% lower RMSE with the DA algorithm). Across all sites and lead times, 65%–82% of observations were within 90% forecast confidence intervals, which allowed managers to anticipate probability of exceedances of ecologically relevant thresholds and aid in decisions about releasing reservoir water downstream. The flexibility of DL models shows promise for forecasting other important environmental variables and aid in decision-making.     

Use of Predictive Weather Uncertainties in an Irrigation Scheduling Tool Part II: An Application of Metrics and Adjoints

We apply predictive weather metrics and land model sensitivities to improve the Colorado State University Water Irrigation Scheduler for Efficient Application (WISE). WISE is an irrigation decision aid that integrates environmental and user information for optimizing water use. Rainfall forecasts and verification performance metrics are used to estimate predictive rainfall probabilities that are used as input data within the irrigation decision aid. These input data errors are also used within a land model sensitivity study to diagnose important prognostic water movement behaviors for irrigation tool development purposes simultaneously performing the analysis in space and time. Thus, important questions such as “how long can a crop water application be delayed while maintaining crop yield production?” are addressed by evaluating crop growth stage interactions as a function of soil depth (i.e., space), rainfall events (i.e., time), and their probabilistic uncertainties. Editor’s note : This paper is part of the featured series on Optimizing Ogallala Aquifer Water Use to Sustain Food Systems. See the February 2019 issue for the introduction and background to the series.     

二维平流扩散模型下的集合卡尔曼滤波模拟同化研究

为提高环境数值预报水平,构建了一个针对污染物扩散的模拟数据同化系统。采用集合卡尔曼滤波方法对二维平流扩散模型的状态变量进行了实时校正,实现污染物浓度的实时模拟预报,完成了敏感性实验中集合数目变化、观测方差变化和同化窗口长度变化研究。比较考察观测点位置与污染源距离不同时的预报效果,探讨了优化条件下的同化策略,提出一种根据距离远近动态调节卡尔曼增益权重的方法。在集合数目较小时,可降低计算代价,得到优化的同化效果。     

Expression of sulfur uptake assimilation-related genes in response to cadmium, bensulfuron-methyl and their co-contamination in rice roots

The responses of sulfur （S） uptake assimilation-related genes＇ expression in roots of two rice cultivars to cadmium （Cd）, bensulfuron-methyl （BSM） and their co-contamination （Cd＋BSM） were investigated by gene-chip microarray analysis and quantitative real-time PCR （QRT-PCR） technology. Treatments of Cd and Cd＋BSM induced expression of sulfate transporter and permease genes, and promoted sulfate uptake in rice roots. Cd＋BSM could alleviate Cd toxicity to cv. Fengmeizhan seedlings, probably due to Cd＋BSM promoting greater S absorption by seedlings. Cd and Cd＋BSM induced expression of sulfate assimilation-related genes, and thus activated the sulfur assimilation pathway. Cd and Cd＋BSM induced expression of phytochelatin synthase and metallothionein genes, and induced expression of glutathione S-transferases （GSTs）, glutathione synthase （GS） and S- containing antioxidation enzyme genes, which detoxified Cd2＋. It is suggested that （to cope with the toxicity of Cd, BSM and their co-contamination） the S uptake and assimilation pathway was activated in rice roots by increased expression of related genes, thus enhancing the supply of organic S for synthesis of Cd or BSM resistance-related substances.     

生物吸附/MBR/硫铁自养反硝化组合工艺运行特性及蛋白质源污泥增量研究

为实现污水处理的深度脱氮除磷及蛋白质源污泥增量,进行了生物吸附/MBR/硫铁自养反硝化组合工艺处理城镇污水的试验研究.结果表明,生物吸附池可以快速富集进水中的大部分有机物,COD平均去除率为55.1%,剩余污泥采用厌氧发酵方式处理,用于生产优质碳源.通过组合工艺系统中的硝化、硫自养反硝化及铁屑除磷作用,出水氨氮、总氮和总磷分别达到1、5和0.4 mg·L~(-1)以下.优质碳源投加到MBR工艺段,碳源环境的改善使得污泥增长率从0.17 g VSS/g COD提高至0.49 g VSS/g COD,进水中总氮的同化比例从40%提高至59%.此外,污泥中蛋白质及氨基酸含量也显著增长,增长率分别为18.3%和19.7%.组合工艺在获得高排放标准水质的同时,实现了高蛋白质源污泥的增量,可为污泥资源化利用提供优质原料.     

基于CMAQ源同化反演方法的京津冀局地污染源动态变化特征模拟研究

利用"Nudging"源同化技术反演了京津冀地区2014年1、3、7、11月SO_2、NO_x的局地动态污染源,并分析其排放源强、特征及地理分布,对比其与初始源的差异,同时检验了反演源的模拟效果.结果表明,SO_2、NO_x污染源存在明显的季节变化,冬季或采暖期排放强度最大.由唐山、北京、天津、廊坊、保定、石家庄、邢台、邯郸构成东北-西南走向的带状污染物高排放区,最高排放中心主要集中在太行山、燕山山前区域,且排放具有典型的"城市化"特征,即各个城市市区及附近强度最大,周边郊县稍弱.与初始源模拟结果相比,采用反演源更能反映出污染物的时空变化特征,模拟值与实测值较接近,而且对于重污染过程亦具有较好的模拟效果.     

Estimating marine biogeochemical rates of the carbonate pH system—A Kalman filter tested

Oxygen (O₂), nitrate (NO₃), dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) or pCO₂, and pH or total alkalinity (TA), are useful indices of marine chemical, physical and biological processes operating on varying time-scales. Although these properties are increasingly being monitored at high frequency, they have not been extensively used for studying ecosystem dynamics. We test whether we can estimate time-evolving biogeochemical rates (e.g. primary production, respiration, calcification and carbonate dissolution, and nitrification) from synthetic high frequency time-series of O₂, NO₃, DIC, pCO₂, TA or pH. More specifically, a Kalman filter has been implemented in a very simplified biogeochemical model describing the dynamics of O₂, NO₃, DIC and TA and linking the concentration data to biogeochemical fluxes. Different sets of concentration data are assimilated and biogeochemical rates are estimated. The frequency of assimilation required to get acceptable results is investigated and is compared with the frequency of sampling in the field or in controlled experimental settings.Smoothing of the data to remove data noise before assimilation improves the estimation of the biogeochemical rates. The best estimated rates are obtained when assimilating O₂, NO₃ and TA although the assimilation of DIC instead of TA also gives satisfactory results. In case pH or pCO₂ is assimilated rather than DIC or TA, the linearization of the (now nonlinear) observation equation introduces perturbations and the Kalman filter behaves suboptimal. We conclude that, given the resolution of data required, the tool has potential to estimate biogeochemical rates of the carbonate system under controlled settings.     

潮白河再生水生态补给河道区浅层地下水氮转化

再生水与天然地下水水质存在差异,利用再生水生态补给河道区可能会带来环境风险.引温济潮工程已运行10余年,为研究再生水长期河道入渗下不同位置地下水氮组分的演化特征与机制,收集近11年的地表水与地下水监测资料.采用聚类分析将地表水划分为不同区域后选择典型地下水监测点分析氮组分的演化差异,并利用Cl-计算混合比得出地下水中目标成分的计算浓度,初步推测地表水入渗后发生的氮转化,并选取DO、TOC、底泥、水文地质条件等环境指标分析证明.结果表明:①地表水明显分为3组,包括减河、土坝以北潮白河段、土坝以南潮白河段,各组间指标存在显著差异,影响水质差异的主要因素为再生水的氮、磷含量及水体流态.②再生水入渗过程中,包气带或黏土层较厚有利于氮的去除,减河和土坝以北潮白河段地表水中的NO₃--N流经包气带时通过反硝化与同化作用衰减,NH₄+-N通过吸附与硝化作用得以去除,入渗后未引起地下水中的氮浓度明显增加.③而土坝以南潮白河段,河道补水后翌年地下水位抬升并趋于稳定,长期地表水入渗使底泥的氮和有机质含量升高,使得该断面于2013年后达到适宜的碳氮比而发生有机氮矿化作用,由于包气带较薄,生成的NH₄+-N较少吸附于土壤介质中,易随水流入渗而引起地下水中ρ（NH₄+-N）升高.研究显示,再生水入渗过程中,包气带或黏土层较厚可有效去除氮组分,但部分地区包气带较薄且发生有机氮矿化作用会增加地下水的氮污染风险.      

Toxicological impact of anilofos on some physiological processes of a rice field cyanobacterium Anabaena torulosa

This study deals with the toxicological impact of the herbicide anilofos on photosynthesis, respiration, nitrogen assimilation, and antioxidant system in a diazotrophic rice field cyanobacterium Anabaena torulosa. Treatment of anilofos (1.25, 2.5, and 5?mg?L^?1) affected growth, photosynthetic pigments, photosynthesis, and respiration of the cyanobacterium. Although all the photosynthetic pigments were affected, a maximum effect of the herbicide was observed on phycocyanin (51% reduction) followed by the carotenoids. The effect of the herbicide on photosynthetic pigments resulted in 57% decrease in photosynthetic O₂ evolution. Studies on the photochemical activity demonstrated that both photosystems (PS I and PS II) were affected by the herbicide. Decrease in the photosynthesis rate resulted in decreased nitrogen assimilation, as revealed by reduced nitrate (20%) and ammonium (26%) uptake and decreased activities of nitrogenase (63% decrease) and glutamine synthetase (22% decrease). This ultimately resulted in the reduced growth of the organism. Activities of superoxide dismutase, catalase, and peroxidase in the presence of anilofos increased by 1.8–3.5 times over control cultures. Proline content increased by 1.6 times, while the content of ascorbate decreased slightly. These results indicate that the organism was able to tolerate the herbicide stress by activating oxidative stress defense mechanism.     

大气高CO2浓度对油菜氮素同化累积与植株生长的影响

为了指导高CO2浓度条件下甘蓝型油菜Brassica napus L.合理施氮、创建油菜高产高效以及进一步探明油菜氮代谢的调节机制提供理论依据,本研究采用微区试验,研究2个油菜品种（沪油15-33号和742-2）在2个CO2浓度水平（自然CO2摩尔分数400μmol·mol-1和高CO2摩尔分数（800±20）μmol·mol-1）和2个氮素水平（施氮与不施氮）条件下,氮素同化酶（NR和GS）活性和可溶性蛋白含量的变化,以及油菜地上部干物质量和氮素累积量的响应。试验结果表明,高CO2浓度会提高NR和GS活性;在氮素处理的影响方面,NR活性的变化与油菜的品种和生育时期不同有关：在高CO2浓度条件下,品种A在各时期的施氮处理的酶活性高于不施氮处理;品种B只在抽薹期的施氮处理低于不施氮处理,其他时期则升高;对于GS酶活性,在自然CO2浓度条件下施氮会提高GS酶活性,高CO2浓度条件下施氮则降低其活性（苗期除外）。CO2浓度升高会降低叶片中可溶性蛋白含量（盛花期除外）;在正常CO2浓度下,增施氮肥会提高叶片中可溶性蛋白含量,而在高CO2浓度下,增施氮肥会降低叶片中可溶性蛋白含量。CO2浓度升高和增施氮肥都会提高油菜地上部干物质量与氮素累积量,油菜干物质量与氮素累积量总体上与上述测定指标呈极显著相关。