行为经济学视角下矿工不安全行为仿真分析

为了分析影响矿工不安全行为决策的成本收益因素，扩展不安全行为的研究方向，基于行为经济学，构建矿工不安全行为决策模型，模型包括矿工属性、管理者属性以及矿工之间的交互影响规则。利用Netlogo工具进行仿真模拟，探讨不同影响因素对不安全行为产生的影响程度。结果表明:正向激励水平对抑制不安全行为效果显著，同时，维持合理的工作时间对保障安全生产意义重大，从而为煤矿企业控制不安全行为提供思路。     

建设用地扩张与碳排放效应的库兹涅茨曲线假说及验证

论文基于无锡市1996—2008年的土地利用和能源消耗数据,分析了无锡市13 a间建设用地扩张及碳排放特征,并构建了建设用地比例与碳排放强度之间的库兹涅茨曲线模型,对无锡市建设用地扩张与碳排放效应之间的相关关系进行了实证研究,尝试验证库兹涅茨曲线在建设用地扩张与碳排放强度之间的存在性。结果表明:①建设用地总量在1996—2008年间迅速增长,绝对增长量44 032.97 hm²,且除了农村居民点逐渐下降以外,其余地类均呈逐年增长态势,无锡市1996—2008年间的碳排放基本上也呈现逐年增长趋势,绝对增长量1 936.38×10⁴ t;②建设用地总量与碳排放强度之间呈倒U型曲线关系,即随着建设用地扩张至拐点后,碳排放强度则逐渐下降,且拐点位于建设用地比例1.91%附近,但是目前仅仅刚开始出现拐点的迹象,表明目前无锡市建设用地扩张还未完全达到集约及精明增长的标准,建设用地扩张对碳排放而言仍然具有较强的推动作用,但是可以预见,随着产业结构调整和能源技术的提高,碳排放强度会逐渐进入下降的阶段;③城市用地与碳排放强度之间为三次曲线关系,建制镇用地、农村居民点用地与碳排放强度之间分别为正相关和负相关线性关系,其他建设用地与碳排放强度之间则存在一种不明显的库兹涅茨曲线关系。建设用地地类组成的不同会导致不同形态的库兹涅茨曲线,由于城市用地和建制镇用地对碳排放具有明显的驱动作用,其比例的提高亦会促使库兹涅茨曲线更加陡峭,并延缓库兹涅茨曲线拐点的到来。     

工伤保险行业差别费率确定方法探讨

制定合理的行业差别费率对于工伤保险基金的稳定、促进企业改善安全生产状况具有积极作用.我国工伤保险制度处于起步阶段,有些地区对行业差别费率厘定进行了探索,但费率与风险的关联性不强,影响了低风险企业参加工伤保险统筹的积极性.本文针对工伤统计数据缺乏的现状,分析了现阶段工伤保险行业差别费率确定方法的研究现状,重点讨论了确定行业风险等级的3种方法,即聚类分析法、风险系数测评和模糊风险评估法的应用过程以及优缺点;另外,强调了在确定行业风险指数时,应注意根据不同事故类别的严重度来确定各风险因素指标的权重大小.最后,应用风险评估理论分析工伤保险行业差别费率的运作机理,提出应用工伤赔付支出费用计算行业差别费率的数学公式,此公式原理清晰、操作方便,且有利于各统筹地区根据实际情况划分行业差别费率.     

黄河三角洲垦利县可持续土地利用评价及对策研究

选取34个自然、环境和社会经济指标,采用相关分析和模糊数学原理对研究区的可持续土地利用进行了评价.结果表明,研究区可持续土地利用性在1986-2003年期间逐渐提高.通过计算障碍度详细分析了研究区可持续土地利用的障碍因素.人均农业总产值、粮食单产、芦苇地占地率、农业用地率是可持续土地利用的主要障碍因素.芦苇地占地率在1996年以后始终是第一障碍因素.人均农业总产值的限制主要出现在1998年之前,之后对可持续土地利用未构成障碍.粮食单产和农业用地率的影响主要出现在1996年以后.林草覆盖率、公顷耕地农机总动力和农村电气化水平在一半以上的年份对可持续土地利用构成障碍.在1994年之前,农民人均收入障碍度较大,是主要的障碍因素.最后根据障碍因素的分析提出了可持续土地利用的对策.     

城市土地集约利用研究进展

城市土地集约利用是城市土地利用变化研究的重要内容之一。了解城市土地集约利用的机理、过程和效应,有助于优化城市土地利用空间结构,提高城市土地利用效率,缓解资源环境约束带给城市发展的压力以及促进城市可持续发展。文章从3个方面对国内外城市土地集约利用研究进行了梳理和总结:①研究尺度,包括空间尺度和时间尺度;②研究内容,包括城市土地集约利用的内涵和相关理论、集约利用评价、集约利用驱动机制、集约利用效应、集约利用途径;③研究方法,包括统计分析和计量分析方法、基于过程的动态模型方法、GIS空间分析方法和其他研究方法。最后对其未来的发展方向提出了一些建议,认为在研究尺度上,应加强多尺度、多层次、时间序列的研究;在研究内容上,应加强基础理论、机理、过程和效应的研究;在研究方法上,应加强计量分析、空间分析和动态模型应用。     

以经济学实验研究处罚机制对排污收费政策执行的影响

为研究处罚机制对排污收费政策执行效果的影响,建立了排污收费政策下风险中性企业的最优决策模型,设计了经济学实验.采用数据统计、线性随机效应模型、单因素不等重复实验方差分析等方法分析实验数据,验证了该模型得出的假设.结果表明,边际处罚期望对于企业的违法量和排放量决策均有显著负影响;企业边际减排成本对于企业的排放量决策有显著正影响,对于违法量决策没有显著影响;相同边际处罚期望下,监测频率越高,企业的服从率越高,且在边际处罚期望较高时,更为明显.因此,提高边际处罚期望可同时改善企业违法行为与促进企业减排.同时,为降低执行成本,在边际处罚期望较低时,可首先将线性罚款向梯级罚款转变.当边际处罚期望上升到较高水平时,则应注重监测频率的提高,并应重点监控那些排污量大而不是边际减排成本高的企业.     

中国经济增长对碳排放的影响分析

通过相关分析探讨了中国国内生产总值(GDP)的增长与碳排放量的关系.结果表明,二者有明显的相关性(R2＝0.958 1).进一步研究认为,由于中国投资率在35%～40%以上,且工业增加值占GDP的比重超过50%,因此中国过分依赖投资的经济增长方式和以第二产业(工业)为主的经济结构在很大程度上是导致温室气体排放量增加的主要原因.未来在全球化背景下,经济增长可转变为更多地依靠科技创新、技术进步和制度的改进,因此,调整经济增长方式和产业结构,可以在保持发展经济的同时,使碳排放强度呈逐渐下降的趋势.     

Effectiveness of conservation easements in agricultural regions

Conservation easements are a standard technique for preventing habitat loss, particularly in agricultural regions with extensive cropland cultivation, yet little is known about their effectiveness. I developed a spatial econometric approach to propensity‐score matching and used the approach to estimate the amount of habitat loss prevented by a grassland conservation easement program of the U.S. federal government. I used a spatial autoregressive probit model to predict tract enrollment in the easement program as of 2001 based on tract agricultural suitability, habitat quality, and spatial interactions among neighboring tracts. Using the predicted values from the model, I matched enrolled tracts with similar unenrolled tracts to form a treatment group and a control group. To measure the program's impact on subsequent grassland loss, I estimated cropland cultivation rates for both groups in 2014 with a second spatial probit model. Between 2001 and 2014, approximately 14.9% of control tracts were cultivated and 0.3% of treated tracts were cultivated. Therefore, approximately 14.6% of the protected land would have been cultivated in the absence of the program. My results demonstrate that conservation easements can significantly reduce habitat loss in agricultural regions; however, the enrollment of tracts with low cropland suitability may constrain the amount of habitat loss they prevent. My results also show that spatial econometric models can improve the validity of control groups and thereby strengthen causal inferences about program effectiveness in situations when spatial interactions influence conservation decisions.     

Identification of policies for a sustainable legal trade in rhinoceros horn based on population projection and socioeconomic models

Between 1990 and 2007, 15 southern white (Ceratotherium simum simum) and black (Diceros bicornis) rhinoceroses on average were killed illegally every year in South Africa. Since 2007 illegal killing of southern white rhinoceros for their horn has escalated to >950 individuals/year in 2013. We conducted an ecological–economic analysis to determine whether a legal trade in southern white rhinoceros horn could facilitate rhinoceros protection. Generalized linear models were used to examine the socioeconomic drivers of poaching, based on data collected from 1990 to 2013, and to project the total number of rhinoceroses likely to be illegally killed from 2014 to 2023. Rhinoceros population dynamics were then modeled under 8 different policy scenarios that could be implemented to control poaching. We also estimated the economic costs and benefits of each scenario under enhanced enforcement only and a legal trade in rhinoceros horn and used a decision support framework to rank the scenarios with the objective of maintaining the rhinoceros population above its current size while generating profit for local stakeholders. The southern white rhinoceros population was predicted to go extinct in the wild <20 years under present management. The optimal scenario to maintain the rhinoceros population above its current size was to provide a medium increase in antipoaching effort and to increase the monetary fine on conviction. Without legalizing the trade, implementing such a scenario would require covering costs equal to approximately $147,000,000/year. With a legal trade in rhinoceros horn, the conservation enterprise could potentially make a profit of $717,000,000/year. We believe the 35‐year‐old ban on rhinoceros horn products should not be lifted unless the money generated from trade is reinvested in improved protection of the rhinoceros population. Because current protection efforts seem to be failing, it is time to evaluate, discuss, and test alternatives to the present policy.     

Comparing Costs of Onsite Best Management Practices to Nutrient Credits for Stormwater Management: A Case Study in Virginia

Best management practices (BMPs) are widely used to mitigate impacts of increased impervious surfaces on stormwater runoff. However, there is limited detailed and up‐to‐date information available on the cost of designing, constructing, and maintaining BMPs over their lifetime. The objective of this study is to analyze BMPs recently constructed by the Virginia Department of Transportation (VDOT) to quantify their total cost per pound of phosphorus removed annually. A motivating factor for the study is recent changes to regulatory guidelines in Virginia which allow for full or partial substitution of purchased nutrient credits in lieu of constructing onsite BMPs to achieve compliance with stormwater quality regulations. Results of the analysis of nine BMPs found their cost ranged from $20,100 to $74,900, in 2014 dollars, per pound ($44,313‐$165,126 per kg) of phosphorus removed. Based on these results and assuming current credit prices procured by VDOT, purchasing nutrient credits is a cost‐effective option for the agency, especially when factoring in the cost of additional right of way for the BMP. Based on this finding, we expect compliance with stormwater quality regulations through credit purchases to become more widely used in Virginia. Moving forward, we suggest more direct tracking of BMP costs to support comparisons between BMP costs across a range of types and conditions to credit purchases for meeting stormwater regulations.