瞭望员安全报火方法研究

通过多年的研究,总结了瞭望员安全报火的方法,即目测法、交叉法、航点法.文中对上述方法进行了说明、比较、分析,提出了上述方法各自的方式、适用范围及优缺点,并对三种方法进行了比较,提出了进行安全报火的基本条件,实践证明,采用上述方法进行报火达到了安全防火的目的.     

Statistical models of health risk due to microbial contamination of foods

Between 6 million and 33 million cases of food-related illness are estimated to occur in the United States each year, with about 5000 episodes resulting in death. Growing concerns about the safety of food prompted the National Food Safety Initiative of 1997, the goal of which is to reduce the incidence of illness caused by food-borne pathogens. A key component of the food safety initiative is the improvement of farm-to-table risk assessment capabilities, including the development of improved dose-response models for estimating risk. When sufficient data are available, allowable contamination levels of specific micro-organisms in food are established using dose-response models to predict risk at very low doses based on experimental data at much higher doses. This necessitates having reliable models for setting allowable exposures to food-borne pathogens. While only limited data on relatively few micro-organisms that occur in food are available at present for dose-response modeling and risk estimation, still none of the two-parameter models proposed so far, including the popular Beta-Poisson (BP) model, appears to be completely satisfactory for describing and fitting all of the present data (Holcomb et al., 1999). The Weibull–Gamma (WG) model is the only three-parameter model that has been proposed to date. In this paper, new competitive three-parameter models are derived, using a formulation that can be parameterized to represent statistical variation with respect to the dose of micro-organism received by the host and the hosts susceptibility to infection. Parameters of the models are estimated using the maximum likelihood method. Experimental data on several common microbial contaminants in food are used to illustrate the methodology.     

Qualitative and quantitative assessment of the risk from the exposure to fetotoxic chemical compounds

A new mathematical dose-response model for the expected probability of toxic response and also for the expected measure of the overdispersion parameter for the reproductive and developmental risk assessment is proposed. The model for the expected probability of toxic response is an improvised Weibull dose-response model incorporating the litter-size effect while the model for the overdispersion parameter is a polynomial function of the dose level. A beta-binomial distribution for the number of offspring showing toxic responses in a litter satisfactorily accounts for the extra-binomial variation and the intralitter correlation of responses of these pups. Confidence limits for low-dose extrapolation are based on the asymptotic distribution of the likelihood ratio. The safe dose for human exposure is then calculated by simple linear extrapolation. The model for overdispersion allows us to obtain the estimates of the overdispersion parameter at these dosages. This was not possible in the earlier models. The proposed model is illustrated by an application to a study on the effect of exposure to diethylhexylphthalate in mice. The results are compared with those obtained by Chen and Kodell (1989) who have applied the simple Weibull dose-response model to the same data set.This paper was prepared with partial support from the United States Environmental Protection Agency under a Cooperative Agreement Number CR-815273. The contents have not been subject to Agency review and therefore do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the Agency and no official endorsement should be inferred.     

防污漆中活性物质海洋环境风险评估关键技术探讨

防污漆中的活性物质对海洋生态环境和人类健康造成的潜在风险受到日益广泛的关注,一些发达国家已建立了针对活性物质海洋环境风险评估的技术体系,但我国相关研究目前尚属空白。综述了防污漆活性物质海洋环境风险评估的研究背景、相关法规、技术标准和发展现状,针对环境风险评估的2个重要组成部分(危害性评估和暴露评估)中的关键技术进行了探讨。在危害性评估中,重点分析和比较了受试生物物种的选择原则、生态毒理数据的要求以及预测无效应浓度的推导方法和应用范围;在暴露评估中,系统阐述了活性物质在水环境中释放速率的计算及修正方法、环境浓度的预测模型、现有的暴露场景及其局限性等。本文以期为我国开展防污漆活性物质海洋环境风险评估提供研究基础和科学依据,并提出了今后的研究重点和方向。     

最优加权组合预测法在水质预测中的应用研究

针对用再生水补给河流的水质预测问题,提出了基于最优加权法的组合预测模型.利用灰色预测模型、趋势外推法和指数平滑法3种方法分别进行预测,再以预测误差平方和最小为目标,将预测值的加权问题转化为优化问题,求解得到各种方法预测值的权值.然后,将3种方法所得的预测结果用最优加权法进行组合,得到组合预测值.最后,应用组合预测法对由再生水补给的永定河中的DO值进行预测,并与单一预测模型比较.仿真结果表明,组合模型可以平衡各种方法的偏差,模型的适用性和预测精度有所改善.     

秸秆覆盖条件下小麦生长季根系呼吸对土壤呼吸作用的贡献

在紫色土丘陵区连续6年进行秸秆覆盖试验的"旱三熟"农田系统中,于2012年12月—2013年4月小麦生长季内对土壤呼吸进行测定,并对小麦根系生物量、土壤温度、土壤水分和土壤有机碳含量等指标进行监测,以分析土壤呼吸动态变化的影响因素.结果表明,秸秆覆盖措施显著提高了土壤呼吸速率,秸秆覆盖(S)和秸秆覆盖+腐熟剂(SD)处理分别比对照(CK)增加了45.0%和29.4%.曲线估计表明,土壤呼吸作用与根系生物量呈显著线性关系,通过建立二者的线性回归方程,采用生物量外推法估算小麦根系呼吸作用占土壤呼吸作用的比例,在分蘖期(2012年12月)、拔节期(2013年1月)、抽穗期(2012年3月)和灌浆期(2013年4月),根系呼吸分别占土壤呼吸的28.2%、44.0%、56.9%、56.2%,平均贡献为46.3%,并呈先增加再降低的趋势,在抽穗期达到最大,与根系生物量的变化同步.按照不同处理建立根系生物量与土壤呼吸间的线性回归方程,经计算得出CK、S和SD 3个处理中,根系呼吸作用占土壤呼吸作用的比例分别为42.9%、43.8%和43.7%,秸秆覆盖对根系呼吸作用比例无显著影响.     

冬小麦种植面积空间抽样单元尺寸优化设计

抽样单元尺寸是空间抽样调查方案设计过程中的关键要素。合理的抽样单元尺寸对降低抽样调查费用、改善抽样外推总体精度具有重要意义。为实现农作物种植面积空间抽样调查中抽样单元尺寸的优化设计,论文以河南省为研究区,以冬小麦种植面积为研究对象,选取正方形网格作为抽样单元,遵循传统抽样理论中抽样单元间相互独立原则,通过分析不同抽样单元尺寸与对应该尺寸下的抽样框内总体单元间全局空间自相关指数(Moran’s I)的相关关系,进行了抽样单元尺寸的初选。为最终实现抽样单元尺寸优选,基于初选的8种抽样单元尺寸,分别构建抽样框,采用以抽样单元内冬小麦面积占单元面积比例(麦土比)为分层标志的分层抽样方法进行了研究区冬小麦种植面积空间抽样样本抽选、总体外推及误差估计试验研究,结果表明:抽样比随抽样单元尺寸的增大而增大;8种抽样单元尺寸下的外推总体相对误差和变异系数均较小,变化范围分别为3.82%~5.75%和3.76％~4.69％;以抽样调查费用和抽样误差为抽样效率评价指标,优选出抽样单元尺寸为20 000 m×20 000 m时,进行研究区冬小麦种植面积抽样调查的效率最高。     

替代面法和推算法在淅川库区氨氮干沉降评估中的适用性分析

农业源氨氮沉降是水库型水源地水体收到的重要的外源氮之一,其沉降量评估与来源识别是水体氮污染防控的重要依据.替代面法和推算法是大气氮素干沉降监测的两种常用方法.采用替代面法和推算法,于2019年9月—2020年8月对淅川库区周边设置的5个大气监测点进行干沉降样品采集,测定了样品中氨氮浓度及其氮同位素,探讨了2种监测方法在氨氮干沉降通量估算及氨氮来源解析中的适用性.结果表明：替代面法获得的氨氮干沉降通量为推算法的1.4~2.1倍,2种监测方法获得的氨氮干沉降通量在时空变化趋势上具有一致性;推算法获得的δ¹⁵N-NH₄⁺较替代面法偏负,季均相差为11.1‰,时空差异显著.替代面法在获得淅川库区氨氮干沉降通量方面具有优势,受氨氮分馏影响,直接获得的δ¹⁵N-NH₄⁺值较初始源δ¹⁵N-NH₃值存在较大偏差,影响溯源结果的准确性;推算法能够分别获得不同氨氮形态干沉降中的δ¹⁵N-NH₄⁺值,适用于氨氮干沉降来源分析,但易造成氨氮干沉降通量偏低;综合利用2种监测方法能够提高同位素溯源结果的准确性.     

水生生物基准推导中物种选择方法研究

运用Mann-Whitney U检验法对不同生物分类群内的物种对氨氮的毒性敏感性进行分析和统计检验,并基于毒理学、生物分类学,从抽样-推断的角度对物种选择进行讨论,并对物种选择与基准推导方法的关系进行梳理.结果发现,物种毒性数据中脊椎动物占绝大部分,尤其是辐鳍纲,与真实生态系统中物种类群结构不符;大部分不同分类群间物种对氨氮的敏感性差异显著,随着物种分类阶元级别降低,大部分分类群内物种的差异逐渐减小,个别分类群内物种的敏感性未呈现相似的规律,尤其是相对不敏感的物种;总体上,能在一定程度上说明同一分类群内的生物有相对接近的敏感性.由抽样-推断理论与方法可知,基准推导属于基于抽样设计的统计推断,因此,可以将生物分类类群作为物种选择的辅助变量,依据水生态系统中物种组成,运用分层随机抽样技术进行物种选择,以提高抽样效率和精度.