From conference abstract to publication in the conservation science literature

Every 2 years, the conservation community comes together at The Society for Conservation Biology's International Congress for Conservation Biology (ICCB) to share new developments in conservation science and practice. Publication of findings presented at conferences in scientific journals adds to the permanent record and helps increase the potential impact of the work presented. However, quantitative research on publication rates for meetings relevant to conservation is lacking. For the 25th ICCB, (Auckland, New Zealand in 2011), we examined study publication rates and presenter demographics, recorded titles, number of authors, presenter affiliations, gender, country of the study region, publication status, and elapsed time between presentation and publication. Of the 980 contributions (782 talks and 198 posters), 587 (60%) were published as peer-reviewed journal articles or book chapters. Mean time to publication was 13.7 months for all presentation abstracts and 21.3 months excluding abstracts with corresponding articles that were published before the meeting. The gender breakdown of presenters was almost even (53% male, 47% female), but representation of the countries where the presenting authors were based was skewed. The political units with the most contributions were by far the United States, Australia, New Zealand, and the United Kingdom. Presenters based in 16 different English-speaking countries made up 74% of the total sample, but this did not influence the likelihood of their abstract leading to a publication. Examination of conference presenters and publication of their presentations is useful to identify biases and potential challenges that need to be addressed to make conference communications permanent and increase their reach beyond conference attendees.     

木材在不同放置角度下火蔓延特性的实验研究

选用厚度为2 mm与3 mm的木材,研究了可碳化固体可燃物在静止氛围中不同角度下的火蔓延特性.研究表明,在不同角度范围内火蔓延经历着熄灭、稳定燃烧、加速燃烧以及快速燃烧等变化过程.对两种厚度的木材火蔓延行为对比分析发现,在自然对流条件下,两种厚度木材的火蔓延极限角度分别为-5°,5°.另外,研究了试样上下表面火焰参数与火蔓延速度之间的关系.在10°＜α＜60°范围内,火蔓延速度计算值与实验值能较好拟合.     

A Bayesian hierarchical approach to quantifying stakeholder attitudes toward conservation in the presence of reporting error

Stakeholder support is vital for achieving conservation success, yet there are few reliable mechanisms to monitor stakeholder attitudes toward conservation. Approaches used to assess attitudes rarely account for bias arising from reporting error, which can lead to falsely reporting a positive attitude toward conservation (false-positive error) or not reporting a positive attitude when the respondent has a positive attitude toward conservation (false-negative error). Borrowing from developments in applied conservation science, we used a Bayesian hierarchical model to quantify stakeholder attitudes as the probability of having a positive attitude toward wildlife notionally (or in abstract terms) and at localized scales while accounting for reporting error. We compared estimates from our model, Likert scores, and naïve estimates (i.e., proportion of respondents reporting a positive attitude in at least 1 question that was only susceptible to false-negative error) with true stakeholder attitudes through simulations. We then applied the model in a survey of tea estate staff on their attitudes toward Asian elephants (Elephas maximus) in the Kaziranga–Karbi Anglong landscape of northeast India. In simulations, Bayesian model estimates of stakeholder attitudes toward wildlife were less biased than naïve estimates or Likert scores. After accounting for reporting errors, we estimated the probability of having a positive attitude toward elephants notionally as 0.85 in the Kaziranga landscape, whereas the proportion of respondents who had positive attitudes toward elephants at a localized scale was 0.50. In comparison, without accounting for reporting errors, naïve estimates of proportions of respondents with positive attitudes toward elephants were 0.69 and 0.23 notionally and at local scales, respectively. False (positive and negative) reporting probabilities were consistently not 0 (0.22–0.68). Regular and reliable assessment of stakeholder attitudes–combined with inference on drivers of positive attitudes–can help assess the success of initiatives aimed at facilitating human behavioral change and inform conservation decision making.     

Estimating the normal background rate of species extinction

A key measure of humanity's global impact is by how much it has increased species extinction rates. Familiar statements are that these are 100–1000 times pre‐human or background extinction levels. Estimating recent rates is straightforward, but establishing a background rate for comparison is not. Previous researchers chose an approximate benchmark of 1 extinction per million species per year (E/MSY). We explored disparate lines of evidence that suggest a substantially lower estimate. Fossil data yield direct estimates of extinction rates, but they are temporally coarse, mostly limited to marine hard‐bodied taxa, and generally involve genera not species. Based on these data, typical background loss is 0.01 genera per million genera per year. Molecular phylogenies are available for more taxa and ecosystems, but it is debated whether they can be used to estimate separately speciation and extinction rates. We selected data to address known concerns and used them to determine median extinction estimates from statistical distributions of probable values for terrestrial plants and animals. We then created simulations to explore effects of violating model assumptions. Finally, we compiled estimates of diversification—the difference between speciation and extinction rates for different taxa. Median estimates of extinction rates ranged from 0.023 to 0.135 E/MSY. Simulation results suggested over‐ and under‐estimation of extinction from individual phylogenies partially canceled each other out when large sets of phylogenies were analyzed. There was no evidence for recent and widespread pre‐human overall declines in diversity. This implies that average extinction rates are less than average diversification rates. Median diversification rates were 0.05–0.2 new species per million species per year. On the basis of these results, we concluded that typical rates of background extinction may be closer to 0.1 E/MSY. Thus, current extinction rates are 1,000 times higher than natural background rates of extinction and future rates are likely to be 10,000 times higher. Estimación de la Tasa Normal de Extinción de Especies     

How certain are we about the certainty-equivalent long term social discount rate?

Theoretical arguments for using a term structure of social discount rates (SDR) that declines with the time horizon have influenced government guidelines in the US and Europe. The certainty equivalent discount rate that often underpins this guidance embodies uncertainty in the primitives of the SDR, such as growth. For distant time horizons the probability distributions of these primitives are ambiguous and the certainty equivalent itself is uncertain. Yet, if a limited set of characteristics of the unknown probability distributions can be agreed upon, ‘sharp’ upper and lower bounds can be defined for the certainty-equivalent SDR. Unfortunately, even with considerable agreement on these features, these bounds are widely spread for horizons beyond 75 years. So while estimates of the present value of intergenerational impacts, including the social cost of carbon, can be bounded in the presence of this ambiguity, they typically remain so imprecise as to provide little practical guidance.     

发酵类抗生素废水处理工艺及运行效果

介绍了内蒙古某抗生素废水处理厂的处理工艺流程、处理单元类型及其详细设计参数,通过对该污水处理厂半年内运行效果的调研,分析评价该污水处理系统的处理效果及出水指标;该水厂工艺流程对COD、TOC、氨氮、总氮、总磷、BOD和急性毒性的平均去除率分别为96.52%、95.83%、50.24%、55.20%、62.05%、98.52%和99.14%,COD、氨氮、总氮、总磷出水水质分别为477、438、556.7和7.69 mg/L,达到排放到城区下水道要求,园区内所有废水汇集到园区污水处理厂进行集中深度处理达标后排放水体。通过对该水厂工艺的介绍和水质分析,为我国抗生素生产企业面临的废水处理工艺类型选择及工程改造升级提供一定参考。     

多点激励下连续桥梁地震响应特性研究

地震动在强度和频率等方面均具有非平稳特性,导致多跨桥梁的动力响应非常复杂.为了研究多跨连续桥梁在多点地震动激励下的反应,首先提出了评价多点地震动非平稳性的3个指标:幅值绝对值的标准差、方向离散度和穿零率.根据桥梁多点激励运动方程的特点,阐述了广义振型参与系数矩阵的意义,及其与传统振型参与系数矩阵的联系和区别.根据多点地...     

Integrating soil carbon cycling with that of nitrogen and phosphorus in the watershed model SWAT: Theory and model testing

In this paper we describe and test a sub-model that integrates the cycling of carbon (C), nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) in the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) watershed model. The core of the sub-model is a multi-layer, one-pool soil organic carbon (S_C) algorithm, in which the decomposition rate of S_C and input rate to S_C (through decomposition and humification of residues) depend on the current size of S_C. The organic N and P fluxes are coupled to that of C and depend on the available mineral N and P, and the C:N and N:P ratios of the decomposing pools. Tillage explicitly affects the soil organic matter turnover rate through tool-specific coefficients. Unlike most models, the turnover of soil organic matter does not follow first order kinetics. Each soil layer has a specific maximum capacity to accumulate C or C saturation (S_x) that depends on texture and controls the turnover rate. It is shown in an analytical solution that S_x is a parameter with major influence in the model C dynamics. Testing with a 65-yr data set from the dryland wheat growing region in Oregon shows that the model adequately simulates the S_C dynamics in the topsoil (top 0.3 m) for three different treatments. Three key model parameters, the optimal decomposition and humification rates and a factor controlling the effect of soil moisture and temperature on the decomposition rate, showed low uncertainty as determined by generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation. Nonetheless, the parameter set that provided accurate simulations in the topsoil tended to overestimate S_C in the subsoil, suggesting that a mechanism that expresses at depth might not be represented in the current sub-model structure. The explicit integration of C, N, and P fluxes allows for a more cohesive simulation of nutrient cycling in the SWAT model. The sub-model has to be tested in forestland and rangeland in addition to agricultural land, and in diverse soils with extreme properties such high or low pH, an organic horizon, or volcanic soils.     

Potential effects of particulate matter from combustion during services on human health and on works of art in medieval churches in Cyprus

Indoor and outdoor particulate matter (PM_0.3-10) number concentrations were established in two medieval churches in Cyprus. In both churches incense was burnt occasionally during Mass. The highest indoor PM_0.5-1 concentrations compared with outdoors (10.7 times higher) were observed in the church that burning of candles indoors was allowed. Peak indoor black carbon concentration was 6.8 μg m⁻³ in the instances that incense was burning and 13.4 μg m⁻³ in the instances that the candles were burning (outdoor levels ranged between 0.6 and 1.3 μg m⁻³). From the water soluble inorganic components determined in PM₁₀, calcium prevailed in all samples indoors or outdoors, whilst high potassium concentration indoors were a clear marker of combustion. Indoor sources of PM were clearly identified and their emission strengths were estimated via modeling of the results. Indoor estimated PM_0.3-10 mass concentrations exceeded air quality standards for human health protection and for the preservation of works of art.     

Effects of ozone on growth, yield and leaf gas exchange rates of two Bangladeshi cultivars of wheat (Triticum aestivum L.)

To clarify the effects of O₃ on crop plants cultivated in Bangladesh, two Bangladeshi wheat cultivars (Sufi and Bijoy) were grown in plastic boxes filled with Andisol and exposed daily to charcoal-filtered air or O₃ at 60 and 100 nl l⁻¹ (10:00-17:00) from 13 March to 4 June 2008. The whole-plant dry mass and grain yield per plant of the two cultivars at the final harvest were significantly reduced by the exposure to O₃. Although there was no significant effect of O₃ on stomatal diffusive conductance to H₂O of flag leaf, net photosynthetic rate of the leaf was significantly reduced by the exposure to O_3. The sensitivity of growth, yield, yield components and leaf gas exchange rates to O₃ was not significantly different between the two cultivars. The results obtained in the present study suggest that ambient levels of O₃ may detrimentally affect wheat production in Bangladesh.