Estimation of soil carbon saturation and carbon sequestration potential of an agro-ecosystem in China

Soil is believed to be the most important sink for sequestering atmospheric carbon. Hence, estimating soil carbon sequestration potential has been carried out for different regions and agricultural practices. However, soil carbon saturation (SCS), a fundamental concept for estimating soil carbon sequestration potential, has not been estimated for countries or regions. In this study, we estimated SCS of agricultural land for most provinces in China for 1990 by the DNDC model, a carbon and nitrogen biogeochemical cycle model, in order to provide a basis for farmers to select the land use, tillage and fertilization regimes to sequester more carbon. The result showed that SCS was as low as 0.48% in Tianjin and up to 5.14% in Tibet. There was a positive correlation between SCS and the proportion of paddy field in a province. In 1990, cropland soil carbon sequestration potential (SCSP) in China was -0.969 Gt C (-2.706 to 0.767 Gt C). This suggests that agricultural soil will be a carbon source to the atmosphere if agricultural practices are not altered. However, SCSP differed between provinces in China. SCSP was highest in Tibet (7.9 t C ha-1) and lowest in Heilongjiang Province (-60.8 t C ha-1), with a gradual decrease from south to north in China.