Incorporating evolutionary processes into population viability models

We examined how ecological and evolutionary (eco‐evo) processes in population dynamics could be better integrated into population viability analysis (PVA). Complementary advances in computation and population genomics can be combined into an eco‐evo PVA to offer powerful new approaches to understand the influence of evolutionary processes on population persistence. We developed the mechanistic basis of an eco‐evo PVA using individual‐based models with individual‐level genotype tracking and dynamic genotype–phenotype mapping to model emergent population‐level effects, such as local adaptation and genetic rescue. We then outline how genomics can allow or improve parameter estimation for PVA models by providing genotypic information at large numbers of loci for neutral and functional genome regions. As climate change and other threatening processes increase in rate and scale, eco‐evo PVAs will become essential research tools to evaluate the effects of adaptive potential, evolutionary rescue, and locally adapted traits on persistence.     

Joint Effects of Inbreeding and Local Adaptation on the Evolution of Genetic Load after Fragmentation

Abstract: Disruption of gene flow among demes after landscape fragmentation can facilitate local adaptation but increase the effect of genetic drift and inbreeding. The joint effects of these conflicting forces on the mean fitness of individuals in a population are unknown. Through simulations, we explored the effect of increased isolation on the evolution of genetic load over the short and long term when fitness depends in part on local adaptation. We ignored genetic effects on demography. We modeled complex genomes, where a subset of the loci were under divergent selection in different localities. When a fraction of the loci were under heterogeneous selection, isolation increased mean fitness in larger demes made up of hundreds of individuals because of improved local adaptation. In smaller demes of tens of individuals, increased isolation improved local adaptation very little and reduced overall fitness. Short‐term improvement of mean fitness after fragmentation may not be indicative of the long‐term evolution of fitness. Whatever the deme size and potential for local adaptation, migration of one or two individuals per generation minimized the genetic load in general. The slow dynamics of mean fitness following fragmentation suggests that conservation measures should be implemented before the consequences of isolation on the genetic load become of concern.     

Guidelines for genetic monitoring of translocated plant populations

Plant translocation is a useful tool for implementing assisted gene flow in recovery plans of critically endangered plant species. Although it helps to restore genetically viable populations, it is not devoid of genetic risks, such as poor adaptation of transplants and outbreeding depression in the hybrid progeny, which may have negative consequences in terms of demographic growth and plant fitness. Hence, a follow-up genetic monitoring should evaluate whether the translocated populations are genetically viable and self-sustaining in the short and long term. The causes of failure to adjust management responses also need to be identified. Molecular markers and fitness-related quantitative traits can be used to determine whether a plant translocation enhanced genetic diversity, increased fitness, and improved the probability of long-term survival. We devised guidelines and illustrated them with studies from the literature to help practitioners determine the appropriate genetic survey methods so that management practices can better integrate evolutionary processes. These guidelines include methods for sampling and for assessing changes in genetic diversity and differentiation, contemporary gene flow, mode of local recruitment, admixture level, the effects of genetic rescue, inbreeding or outbreeding depression and local adaptation on plant fitness, and long-term genetic changes.