A REGIONAL APPROACH TO PROJECT EVALUATION1

ABSTRACT. Water and related land resource planning has generally been characterized by project evaluation in isolation. Feasible alternatives have been ignored because the economic analysis did not include the interdependence of such subregional and regional variables as factor and product prices and production possibilities. This paper presents an economic framework, consistent with a regional development objective and an efficiency criterion, for proposing and evaluating resource projects. Subregional and regional derived demand curves for water are developed under alternative assumptions of subregional competition, regional market restraints, and yield and price uncertainty. The derivation of water demand curves using the proposed regional framework as compared to sub regional isolation has the desirable properties of (1) a marginal analysis that is more flexible over time is substituted for a static average analysis; (2) range estimates incorporating probabilities are substituted for point estimates; (3) approximations to functional demand curves are substituted for “needs”; and (4) fewer resources are required to meet a regional market restraint.     

Did Child Restraint Laws Globally Converge? Examining 40 Years of Policy Diffusion

Objective: The objective of the current study is to determine what factors have been associated with the global adoption of mandatory child restraint laws (ChRLs) since 1975.

Methods: In order to determine what factors explained the global adoption of mandatory ChRLs, Weibull models were analyzed. To carry out this analysis, 170 countries were considered and the time risk corresponded to 5,146 observations for the period 1957–2013. The dependent variable was first time to adopt a ChRL. Independent variables representing global factors were the World Health Organization (WHO) and World Bank's (WB) road safety global campaign; the Geneva Convention on Road Traffic; and the United Nation's (UN) 1958 Vehicle Agreement. Independent variables representing regional factors were the creation of the European Transport Safety Council and being a Commonwealth country. Independent variables representing national factors were population; gross domestic product (GDP) per capita; political violence; existence of road safety nongovernmental organizations (NGOs); and existence of road safety agencies. Urbanization served as a control variable. To examine regional dynamics, Weibull models for Africa, Asia, Europe, North America, Latin America, the Caribbean, and the Commonwealth were also carried out.

Results: Empirical estimates from full Weibull models suggest that 2 global factors and 2 national factors are significantly associated with the adoption of this measure. The global factors explaining adoption are the WHO and WB's road safety global campaign implemented after 2004 (P <.01), and the UN's 1958 Vehicle Agreement (P <.001). National factors were GDP (P <.01) and existence of road safety agencies (P <.05). The time parameter ρ for the full Weibull model was 1.425 (P <.001), suggesting that the likelihood of ChRL adoption increased over the observed period of time, confirming that the diffusion of this policy was global. Regional analysis showed that the UN's Convention on Road Traffic was significant in Asia, the creation of the European Transport Safety Council was significant in Europe and North America, and the global campaign was in Africa. In Commonwealth and European and North American countries, the existence of road safety agencies was also positively associated with ChRL adoption.

Conclusions: Results of the world models suggest that the WHO and WB's global road safety campaign was effective in disseminating ChRLs after 2004. Furthermore, regions such as Asia and Europe and North America were early adopters since specific regional and national characteristics anticipated the introduction of this policy before 2004. In this particular case, the creation of the European Transport Safety Council was fundamental in promoting ChRLs. Thus, in order to introduce conditions to more rapidly diffuse road safety measures across lagging regions, the maintenance of global efforts and the creation of road safety regional organizations should be encouraged. Lastly, the case of ChRL convergence illustrates how mechanisms of global and regional diffusion need to be analytically differentiated in order better to assess the process of policy diffusion.     

Investigation of Child Restraint System (CRS) Compatibility in the Vehicle Seat Environment

Objective: Child restraint system (CRS) misuse is common and can have serious consequences to child safety. Physical incompatibilities between CRS and vehicles can complicate the installation process and may worsen CRS misuse rates. This study aims to identify the most common sources of incompatibility between representative groups of CRS and vehicles.

Methods: Detailed dimensional data were collected from 59 currently marketed CRS and 61 late model vehicles. Key dimensions were compared across all 3,599 theoretical CRS/vehicle combinations and the most common predicted incompatibilities were determined. A subset of 34 physical installations was analyzed to validate the results.

Results: Only 58.2% of rear-facing (RF) CRS/vehicle combinations were predicted to have proper agreement between the vehicle's seat pan angle and the CRS manufacturers’ required base angle. The width of the base of the CRS was predicted to fit snugly between the vehicle's seat pan bolsters in 63.3% of RF CRS/vehicle combinations and 62.2% of forward-facing (FF) CRS/vehicle combinations. FF CRS were predicted to be free of interaction with the vehicle's head restraint in 66.4% of combinations. Roughly 90.0% of RF CRS/vehicle combinations were predicted to have enough horizontal clearance space to set the front seat in the middle its fore/aft slider track. Compatibility rates were above 98% regarding the length of the CRS base compared to the length of the vehicle seat pan and the ability of the top tether to reach the tether anchor. Validation studies revealed that the predictions of RF CRS base angle range vs. seat pan angle compatibility were accurate within 6%, and head restraint interference and front row clearance incompatibilities may be more common than the dimensional analysis approach has predicted.

Conclusions: The results of this study indicate that RF CRS base angles and front row clearance space, as well as FF CRS head restraint interference, are frequent compatibility concerns. These results enable manufacturers, researchers, and consumers to focus their attention on the most relevant CRS/vehicle incompatibility issues in today's market.     

Effect of enhanced seat belt reminders on driver fatality risk

Objective

Enhanced seat belt reminders in automobiles have been shown to increase belt use rates by approximately 3 percentage points. The objective of this study was to estimate the effect of enhanced seat belt reminders on driver fatality risk.

Method

Data included all passenger vehicle driver deaths and vehicle registration counts in the United States for calendar years 2000-2007. Driver fatality rates per vehicle registration per year were compared for otherwise identical vehicle models with and without enhanced seat belt reminders.

Results

Driver fatality rates were 6% lower for vehicles with enhanced seat belt reminders compared with vehicles without enhanced belt reminders. After adjusting for vehicle age differences, the estimated effect of enhanced belt reminders on driver fatality risk ranged from a 9% reduction for General Motors vehicles to a 2% increase for Honda vehicles. Combining all manufacturers, enhanced belt reminders reduced fatality risk by approximately 2%. Although not statistically significant, the 2% reduction in fatality risk agrees with what should be expected from a 3 percentage point increase in seat belt use rates.

Conclusions

Enhanced seat belt reminders have raised driver belt use rates and reduced fatality rates, but more aggressive systems may be needed for some drivers. It can be inferred that nonfatal injury rates also have been reduced.

Impact on Industry

Manufacturers should be encouraged to put enhanced seat belt reminders on all vehicles as soon as possible.     

Discordance between age- and size-based criteria of child passenger restraint appropriateness

Objectives: In this study, we sought to accomplish the following objectives: to (1) calculate the percentage of children considered appropriately restrained across 8 criteria of increasing restrictiveness; (2) examine agreement between age- and size-based appropriateness criteria; (3) assess for changes in the percentage of children considered appropriately restrained by the 8 criteria between 2011 (shortly after updates to U.S. guidelines) and 2015.

Methods: Data from 2 cross-sectional surveys of 928 parents of children younger than 12 years old (n = 591 in 2011, n = 337 in 2015) were analyzed in 2017. Child age, weight, and height were measured at an emergency department visit and used to determine whether the parent-reported child passenger restraint was considered appropriate according to 8 criteria. Age-based criteria were derived from Michigan law and U.S. guidelines. Weight, height, and size-based criteria were derived from typical restraints available in the United States in 2007 and 2011. The percentage appropriate restraint use was calculated for each criterion. The kappa statistic was used to measure agreement between criteria. Change in appropriateness from 2011 to 2015 was assessed with chi-square statistics.

Results: Percentage appropriate restraint use varied from a low of 19% for higher weight limits in 2011 to a high of 91% for Michigan law in 2015. Agreement between criteria was slight to moderate. The lowest kappa was for Michigan law and higher weight limits in 2011 (κ = 0.06) and highest for U.S. guidelines and lower weight limits in 2011 (κ = 0.60). Percentage appropriate restraint use was higher in 2015 than 2011 for the following criteria: U.S. guidelines (74 vs. 58%, P < .001), lower weight (57 vs. 47%, P = .005), higher weight (25 vs. 19%, P = .03), greater height (39 vs. 26%, P < .001), and greater size (42 vs. 30%, P = .001).

Conclusions: The percentage of children considered to be using an appropriate restraint varied substantially across criteria. Aligning the definition of appropriate restraint use with current U.S. guidelines would increase consistency in reporting results from studies of child passenger safety in the United States. Potential explanations for the increased percentage of children considered appropriately restrained between 2011 and 2015 include adoption of the updated U.S. guidelines and the use of child passenger restraints with higher weight and height limits.     

Usability of non-standard lower anchor configurations for child restraint system (CRS) installation

Abstract

Objectives: The objective of this study was to determine whether the amount of tension required for proper child restraint system (CRS) installation varies with lower anchor spacing and to determine whether nonexperts can produce adequate tension on wider-than-standard lower anchor configurations.

Methods: CRSs were installed by certified child passenger safety technicians (CPSTs; n?=?6 subjects, n?=?72 installations) and nonexperts (n?=?30 subjects, n?=?120 installations) on a mock-up vehicle seat fixture with lower anchors set at 11 (standard), 15, 19, and 23 in. apart from one another. Each CPST installed a rear-facing (RF) infant base, RF convertible, and forward-facing (FF) convertible into each of the 4 spacing configurations in random order. The CPSTs were instructed to tighten the lower connector strap until the tension was exactly at the threshold between passing and failing the 1-in. test. Each nonexpert installed one CRS model into all 4 spacing conditions in random order. Nonexperts were instructed to install the CRS to the best of their ability. The tension produced on the lower connector strap was recorded via load cell in the lower anchor assembly of the vehicle seat. Resultant tension magnitudes were compared across spacing conditions using matched pair t-tests. The CPSTs’ mean 1-in. test threshold values were compared to tensions produced by nonexperts. Installations were visually evaluated for errors and qualitative usability feedback was collected via survey.

Results: CPSTs installed the infant base with higher tensions in the 15-, 19-, and 23-in. configurations compared to the standard 11-in. configuration (P = .034, .032, and .003, respectively). The nonexperts installed the infant base with higher tension in the 15- and 23-in. configurations compared to the 11-in. configuration (P = .004 and .026, respectively). The RF convertible and FF convertible installations showed no significant differences in tension among any of the spacing configurations for either group. Only 19% of the nonexperts’ installations were tight enough to pass CPST thresholds, and the pass rate did not vary with respect to lower anchor spacing. In feedback surveys, the nonexpert group did not show a consistent preference for either standard or wider-than-standard lower anchor configurations.

Conclusions: The amount of tension required to pass the 1-in. rule did not vary with lower anchor spacing configurations for the RF and FF convertible CRS, but the infant base required more tension in wider anchor configurations. Nonexperts tended to produce less than ideal tension in all configurations, although their tension magnitudes increased for the infant base in wider configurations.     

Characterizing the child passenger safety workforce in Michigan: A statewide survey in 2015

Objective: In this study, we assessed the number of child passenger safety technicians (CPSTs) in Michigan over 4 years and characterized the CPST workforce in 2015 to identify factors associated with high productivity and longevity in the field.

Methods: We determined the number of CPSTs and those newly certified using lists from the Michigan Office of Highway Safety Planning (OHSP) from 2012 to 2015. We conducted a statewide survey of Michigan CPSTs in October 2015. Analyses were conducted in 2016. The survey assessed demographic characteristics, reasons to enter the field and maintain certification, and motivations to conduct seat checks. We used CPST-reported time devoted to seat checks and average number of seats checked per month to create a composite “activity level” variable. We examined activity levels across several characteristics.

Results: The number of CPSTs ranged from 941 to 980 over the study period, with approximately 200 new certifications annually. In 2015, surveys were started by 496 of 962 eligible CPSTs and 427 submitted complete responses. CPST-instructors had a higher response rate than CPSTs in general (89 vs. 49%, P < .0001). The majority of respondents were women (71%) and self-identified as white (88%). More than one third were 35–44 years old. Just 7% were comfortable checking seats using a language other than English. “Personal reasons” were most often cited motivation for becoming a CPST and maintaining certification. Natural fit/job enhancement were more common reasons to maintain certification than become a CPST. Time and distance had the greatest influence on seat check participation. Perceived need, appointments vs. drop-in, and employer factors were very influential for 10–15% of CPSTs. Few CPSTs considered free food and payments/giveaways very influential. About 40% of respondents were considered high-activity (>24 seats checked/year), one third medium-activity (5 to 24 seats checked/year), and one quarter low-activity (<5 seats checked/year). High-activity CPSTs most commonly reported both being paid and volunteering their time to check seats, worked with a Safe Kids coalition, worked in law enforcement or social services, and had recertified at least once. Motivation to participate in seat checks did not vary with activity level.

Conclusions: Understanding the demographic characteristics and motivations of CPSTs can help Michigan OHSP recruit and retain a workforce dedicated to increasing the safety of child passengers. Agencies hosting seat checks can use these results to align the strategies they employ to incentivize CPSTs to serve in their communities with the factors that have the greatest influence on CPST participation.     

Restraint use in the Eastern Province of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

Objectives: This study set out to examine seat belt and child restraint use in the Dammam Municipality of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, based on the premise that an increase in seat belt use would significantly reduce personal injury in traffic crashes. It was expected that local data would help identify intervention strategies necessary to improve seat belt use in the region.

Methods: The research involved 2 methodologies. First, 1,389 face-to-face interviews were conducted with male and female adults in regional shopping plazas regarding their own and their children's restraint use in their vehicles and reasons for these attitudes and beliefs. Second, 2 on-road observation studies of adult and child restraint use were conducted by trained observers. Occupants of approximately 5,000 passenger vehicles were observed while stopped at representative signalized traffic intersections.

Results: The findings showed front seat belt use rates of between 43 and 47% for drivers and 26 to 30% for front seat passengers; rear seat belt use rates were lower. While there seemed to be some knowledge about the purpose and reasons for restraining both adults and children in suitable restraints, this failed to be confirmed in the on-road observations.

Conclusions: Reasons for these rates and findings are discussed fully, and recommendations for improving seat belt use in the Dammam Municipality are included.     

区域危险品道路运输网络双层反馈规划模型及算法

为通过运输网络规划方式降低区域路网危险品运输风险,根据危险品道路运输网络规划中存在监管者路网规划和运输者路线选择的双层约束特征,在假设监管者网络规划目的为总运输风险最小,运输者选线目的为总运输成本最小的基础上,建立区域危险品道路运输网络双层规划模型。进一步提出能求解得到稳定运输网络的双层反馈式算法,即在传统模型算法中增加稳定性检验和反馈调整算法,进而保证运输者在监管者规划路网中所选路线运输成本最小的同时运输风险也尽可能小。最后,通过实例分析检验模型和算法的有效性。计算结果显示,反馈式算法求得的运输网络更稳定,总运输风险值也比传统模式和算法的低。