环境污染事故调查诊断中的因果关系分析

因果关系分析与确定是整个环境污染事故调查诊断的核心，探讨了环境污染事故处理中因果关系的特点，因果关系分析基本原则和内容，因果关系分析的基本步骤，并简介环境污染事故中因果关系推定原则和环境暴露分析方法。     

Multistate models for monitoring individual trees in permanent observation plots

This interdisciplinary research on forest ecosystems begins with some characteristics of ecosystems which are the basis for the derivation of statistical models for the development and vitality of trees. Several ecological problems which could be solved by longitudinal studies are mentioned. Statistical methods for the evaluation of the crowns of spruce trees (Picea abies Karst) in three permanent observation plots in Switzerland are described. In particular, the time-dependent proportional odds model and a transitional model are used. Through application of these multistate models the data give information on the dependence of an ordered categorical response variable on covariates characterizing the ecosystem. The response variable is observed through infrared aerial photographs. This monitoring system gives insight into the dynamic behaviour of the forest ecosystem. The need for more eco-systematically motivated statistical research using longitudinal studies is identified.     

江苏省能源消费与经济增长耦合关系研究

能源消费与经济增长之间的关系是环境经济学研究的重要领域。以江苏省为研究区域,基于1990～2005年的年度数据,运用脱钩和复钩理论,协整分析技术和Granger因果关系检验方法,辨识和分析了的能源消费总量、电力消费和地区生产总值之间的耦合关系,实证研究表明,1990～2000年,江苏能源消费与地区生产总值处于弱脱钩状态,进入2000年后,二者呈现出扩张性复钩趋势。研究同时还发现江苏的能源消费总量与GDP之间存在长期均衡关系,表现出能源消费促进经济增长的单向格兰杰因果关系。研究结果表明了当前能源是影响江苏经济增长的关键要素,江苏在经济增长和能源利用战略等方面应当采取更加积极有效的对策。     

河南省经济增长与能源协整关系模型分析

在环境经济系统中,能源是经济活动的驱动要素,是经济活动的自然基础。本研究以河南区域的资源经济关系为研究对象,选取改革开放以来,河南省1978年-2010年样本区间内国内生产总值和能源生产总量和消耗总量数据,运用协整检验、Granger因果关系检验和误差修正等计量经济统计模型,研究河南省的国内生产总值和能耗生产总量与能源消耗总量在时序维度的长期均衡和短期动态性关系,揭示河南省经济增长与能源生产和能源消费存在的关系,探寻能源与经济的作用关系。通过实证分析表明,在河南省经济增长过程中,能源生产与能源消费和国内生产总值存在着长期的动态均衡关系,Granger因果检验表明能源生产总量、能源消费总量是国内生产总值的Granger原因,能源消费总量是能源生产总量的Granger原因。以上研究结果表明,河南省的经济增长与能源供给的长期依赖关系依然存在。     

试论环境犯罪中因果关系的确立原则

修订后的《刑法》在环境刑事立法上虽有重大发展，但摁环境犯罪的特殊性而使传统的刑法因果关系理论受到冲击，新因果关系确立原则－因果关系推定原则应运而生。我国应以最高人民法院发布司法解释的形式确立因果关系推定原则，将其适用于污染环境的犯罪行为和部分破坏环境的犯罪行为的因果关系确立中。     

Network and system diagrams revisited: Satisfying CEA requirements for causality analysis

Published guidelines for Cumulative Effects Assessment (CEA) have called for the identification of cause-and-effect relationships, or causality, challenging researchers to identify methods that can possibly meet CEA's specific requirements. Together with an outline of these requirements from CEA key literature, the various definitions of cumulative effects point to the direction of a method for causality analysis that is visually-oriented and qualitative. This article consequently revisits network and system diagrams, resolves their reported shortcomings, and extends their capabilities with causal loop diagramming methodology. The application of the resulting composite causality analysis method to three Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) case studies appears to satisfy the specific requirements of CEA regarding causality. Three “moments” are envisaged for the use of the proposed method: during the scoping stage, during the assessment process, and during the stakeholder participation process.     

论环境侵害中因果关系的判定

环境侵害是现代社会的新生问题,作为一种新型的侵害行为,它具有缓慢性、持续性,从而使因果关系判定发生困难。本文提出适用因果关系推定原则,并由加害人承担更多的举证责任来解决这一难题     

A data similarity based analysis to consequential alarms of industrial processes

The analysis of consequential alarms is beneficial to avoiding alarm flooding and finding out root alarms in an industrial process. In this context, a novel similarity computation method taking into account of correlation delays between process alarms is introduced firstly. Subsequently, the Granger causality method is suggested to further clarify mutual impacts of similar alarm variables based on process data. Through the combination of alarm data similarity analysis and process data causality analysis, the consequential alarms can be effectively identified along with their evolution paths. An industrial case is employed to illustrate the benefits of the contribution.     

The organization of integrated environmental research in The Netherlands

This article presents new concepts for the organization of increasingly complex environmental research activities on the institutional, the national, or the international level. An environmental research cycle with four phases, similar to the industrial product cycle, is described, and its implications in managing the interface between research, policy making, and enforcement are depicted. Furthermore, five main themes of future environmental research are proposed, including advanced analytical methods, environmental monitoring, an environmental management information system (EMIS), and the development of ecological targets at a national and a global level. The specific tasks of universities, private organizations, and governmental institutions in the total environmental research area are defined and a structure is proposed to develop collaborative networks.     

A Framework for Fully Integrating Environmental Assessment

A new framework for environmental assessment is needed because no existing framework explicitly includes all types of environmental assessments. We propose a framework that focuses on resolving environmental problems by integrating different types of assessments. Four general types of assessments are included: (1) condition assessments to detect chemical, physical, and biological impairments; (2) causal pathway assessments to determine causes and identify their sources; (3) predictive assessments to estimate environmental, economic, and societal risks, and benefits associated with different possible management actions; and (4) outcome assessments to evaluate the results of the decisions of an integrative assessment. The four types of assessments can be neatly arrayed in a two-by-two matrix based on the direction of analysis of causal relationships (rows) and whether the assessment identifies problems or solves them (columns). We suggest that all assessments have a common structure of planning, analysis, and synthesis, thus simplifying terminology and facilitating communication between types of assessments and environmental programs. The linkage between assessments is based on intermediate decisions that initiate another assessment or a final decision signaling the resolution of the problem. The framework is applied to three cases: management of a biologically impaired river, remediation of a contaminated site, and reregistration of a pesticide. We believe that this framework clarifies the relationships among the various types of assessment processes and their links to specific decisions.