基于敏感度分析的江苏省粮食生产与耕地数量变化动态响应研究

江苏省作为我国重要的粮食生产基地,其耕地资源变化不仅影响区域的可持续发展,更关系国家的粮食安全。以江苏省55个县域为研究单元,结合数理统计和GIS空间分析,研究2000～2015年江苏省耕地与粮食生产的时空演变及粮食生产对耕地资源变化的敏感程度。结果表明:(1)江苏省耕地总体呈减少趋势,其中耕地相对稀疏区主要分布在苏锡常地区,而集聚区主要分布在苏北;粮食生产的空间格局与耕地分布基本一致,但总量呈增加趋势,2015年江苏省粮食产量达到3561×10~4 t,为2000年的1.15倍。(2)耕地重心与粮食产量重心的移动方位大致相同,均表现为向北偏西方向移动。(3)对比2000～2009年和2009～2015年两个时期,江苏省粮食产量对耕地资源变化的敏感性逐渐减弱。随着农业技术的发展,区域粮食生产对耕地面积的依赖程度逐渐降低,保护耕地与保障粮食安全亟需因地制宜,针对不同敏感性地区合理布局粮食生产。

Dynamic Response of Grain Production and Cultivated Land Quantity Change in Jiangsu Province Based on Sensitivity Analysis

Jiangsu Province is considered as an important grain production base in China. The change of cultivated land not only affects the sustainable development of region, but also relates to the food security of China. In this paper, 55 counties in Jiangsu Province were selected as study unit, and the mathematical statistics and GIS spatial analysis were conducted to analyze the spatial temporal variations of cultivated land and grain production, and the sensitivity of grain production to cultivated land change during 2000-2015. The results indicated that the cultivated land in Jiangsu Province showed a decreasing trend, in which the relatively sparse areas were mainly distributed in Suzhou, Wuxi and Changzhou, while the agglomeration areas were mainly distributed in northern Jiangsu. The spatial pattern of grain production was consistent with the distribution of cultivated land, and the grain yield showed an increasing trend. In 2015, the grain yield in Jiangsu Province reached 3561×10⁴ tons, which was 1.15 times of that of 2000. In addition, the moving direction of gravity center of cultivated land and grain production are roughly same, and both of them move to northward and westward. Compared with 2000-2009, the sensitivity of grain production to cultivated land change in Jiangsu Province was gradually weakened during 2009-2015. With the development of agricultural technology, the dependence of grain production on cultivated land has gradually decreased. It is urgent to protect cultivated land, ensure food security in accordance with local conditions, and rationally allocate grain production for different sensitive areas.