沙堆模型动力学特性与灾害系统演化预测研究

基于自组织临界性的理论框架,针对处于周期区与混沌区之间状态的灾害系统,研究其可预测性及预测方法.通过均匀和非均匀沙堆对比实验,发现两类沙堆模型表现出两种动力学行为--自组织临界性和准周期性.采用时序分析、功率谱分析和R/S分析等多种方法分析了两类系统的演化行为,反映了灾害系统的可预测特征;进一步提出了灾害预测的几个研究方向及方法.最后以极值统计法为例,介绍了其在两类灾害预测中的应用.

Dynamics characteristic of sandpiles model and prediction of disaster phylogenetic evolution

Some disaster systems are in a state between cycle region and chaos region. Their predictability and prediction technique are researched based on self-organized critical theory. It is found that sandpiles model could show two kinds of dynamics behavior by contrast experiments of uniform and non-uniform sand-gravels. One is self-organized critical and the other is quasi-cyclic. Evolvement of two systems were analyzed by some techniques such as the time series analysis, the spectrum analysis and the R/S analysis. And some predictability characteristics of two systems were showed such as long range correlation. Both disaster systems are predictable. The research routes and techniques of disaster prediction were put forward too. Finally as an example, the application of extreme statistics to disaster prediction was introduced.