气候变化的历史责任与碳排放限额分配

对主要国家、九大区域及附件Ｉ国家与非附件Ｉ国家两大集团的二氧化碳历史累积排放量进行了估算，对目前主要的碳排放限额分配方法与原则进行了评述，指出人均原则是应坚持的分配原则。针对以当年还是以1990年为人口基年以及考虑历史责任与否提出了4种人均碳排放限额分配模式，并用其计算了全球九大区域以及中国的2050年碳排放限额。结果表明，考虑历史责任与否对碳排放限额分配结果的影响相当大，而且只有采用考虑历史责任并以1990年为人口基年这一人均分配模式，中国2050年的碳排放限额才可能高于其预测排放量

Historical responsibility for climate change and carbon emission right allocation.

National and regional CO 2 cumulative emissions from 1860 to 1990,as well as those of Annex one and non Annex one countries are calculated and various existing carbon emission right allocation principles are reviewed.It is pointed out that the global carbon emission right should be the principle of equal per capita.Four allocation models based on equal per capita emission right principle are suggest.The carbon emission rights in 2050 of nine regions in the world and China are estimated with application of these models.The calculation shows that considering the responsibility for historical emissions or not will influence deeply the allocation results.And only when the model in which population in 1990(fixed base year) is used,and all countries'responsibilities for historical emissions are considered,China's carbon emission right in 2050 will be higher than its predicated emission.