| 基于可公度方法的陕西及邻近地区重大自然灾害发生趋势探讨 |
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| 引用本文： | 延军平,闫军辉,白晶,王娟,王新华. 基于可公度方法的陕西及邻近地区重大自然灾害发生趋势探讨[J]. 灾害学, 2010, 25(2): 18-20 |
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| 作者姓名： | 延军平 闫军辉 白晶 王娟 王新华 |
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| 作者单位： | 陕西师范大学,旅游与环境学院,陕西,西安,710062 |
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| 摘 要： | 针对重大自然灾害预测预报的世界难题,在可公度方法的基础上,提出时间对称性观点;进而对陕西及可能影响到陕西的部分全国重大自然灾害进行了趋势研究。研究认为,2010年、2012年、2013年及2019年,陕西及邻近地区有发生重大灾害的可能性。并认为,适应全球变化首先要适应频繁的自然灾害。
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| 关 键 词： | 灾害趋势 可公度 时间对称性 适应灾害 陕西 |
Discussion on Trends of Major Natural Disasters in Shaanxi Province and Its Vicinities Based on Commensurable Method |
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| Yan Junping,Yan Junhui,Bai Jing,Wang Juan,Wang Xinhua. Discussion on Trends of Major Natural Disasters in Shaanxi Province and Its Vicinities Based on Commensurable Method[J]. Journal of Catastrophology, 2010, 25(2): 18-20 |
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| Authors: | Yan Junping Yan Junhui Bai Jing Wang Juan Wang Xinhua |
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| Affiliation: | Yan Junping,Yan Junhui,Bai Jing,Wang Juan , Wang Xinhua(College of Tourism , Environment Sciences,Shaanxi Normal University,Xi'an 710062,China) |
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| Abstract: | In view of the worldwide problem of forecast and prediction of major natural disasters,the perspective in time symmetry is put forward based on commensurable method.Trends of certain natural disasters in Shaanxi and major natural disasters in other provinces that may affect Shaanxi are discussed.The results show that there exist possibilities of great disasters in and around Shaanxi in 2010,2012,2013 and 2019.It is thought that to adapt to the global changes should fist adopt to frequent natural disasters. |
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| Keywords: | disaster trend commensurable method time symmetry adaptation to disaster Shaanxi province |
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