燃气管网定量风险分析方法综述

以城市燃气管网的风险为研究对象,分析并提出一种可用于城市燃气管网定量风险分析的新思路,包含了不同事故后果及其物理模型的分析即事故可能性分析、后果分析和风险评价,分为失效事故假定、泄漏率计算、物理效应计算、致死率计算、风险值计算、风险评价等环节;整理、研究城市燃气管网定量风险分析所涉及的多种物理模型,并通过比较不同模型的特点,分析各个模型的不足之处;最后针对国内外研究现状及燃气管网风险的特点,指出研究发展方向:研究风险在燃气管网内的传播,提出燃气管网相继失效的风险分析方法。所提出的分析思路、计算方法可与工程应用相结合。

An Overview of Quantitative Risk Analysis Methods for Natural Gas Pipelines

With the risk of urban gas transmission pipelines as the study object,an applicable method for the quantitative risk analysis of natural gas pipelines is proposed. This new method consists of different accident effect analysis and physics model analysis,namely,the probability assessment of accidents,the analysis of consequences and the evaluation of risk. The function of this method includes failure hypothesis,release rate calculation,physics effects calculation,death probability calculation,risk calculation and risk evaluation. The models possibly needed in the risk analysis of urban gas transmission pipelines are investigated;and their disadvantages are analyzed through comparison. Finally,further researching directions are put forth according to the current research,which focus on the spread of the risk inside urban gas transmission pipelines and the risk analysis methods for the cascading failure of gas transmission pipelines. The methods proposed in this paper can be used in practical application.