国家石油安全评估指标体系的构建

石油是一种特殊的具有战略意义的"政治"商品,极易受到政治、经济、军事等因素的影响。根据石油安全的内涵和特征,遵循指标体系构建原则,本文把影响石油安全的主要因素归纳为资源因素、政治因素、经济因素、运输因素、军事因素等5个方面,并从中选择16个指标,构建了评估国家石油安全的指标体系,并给出了每个指标的表达式。在对指标分级和量化的基础上,利用层次分析法,结合熵技术对指标权重进行修正。通过研究,可以得到以下几点启示:①石油安全定量评估是一个较复杂的问题,指标的选取、指标值的计算和权重系数的确定都需要研究者自身的判断,因此,研究者对研究领域有一个较全面的了解和掌握,才能构建较为科学合理的指标体系;②研究中有一些重要的指标难以完全量化,为了研究工作的需要,我们将这类指标转化为半定量化指标;③采用熵技术对权重系数进行修正,其结果令人满意。

Index System for Appraising National Petroleum Security

Petroleum is a political goods and strategic material, which is influenced easily by some factors, such as politic, economic and military factors.According to the nature and connotation of national petroleum security (NPS) and the principles of establishment of index system, this paper selects 16 indices from five aspects and establishes an index system for appraising NPS.The index system of appraising NPS is made up of four layers, five subsystems and 16 indices.This paper firstly explains the 16 indices and gives their calculating formulas.Then on the basis of classification and quantification of the indices, this paper uses the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) to determine the weight coefficient and revises it by using entropy technique with the following formula:λ_j=μ_jw_j]∑n]j=1μ_jw_j Where λ_j stands for the modified weight coefficient by using entropy technique,μ_j is the information weight and w_j is the weight coefficient determined by AHP.Some inspiration we can get from the studies is as follows: (1) NPS appraising is a difficult work.The selection and value calculation of indices and the determination of the weight coefficient all need researcher's personal judgment.So, a good index system needs a professional researcher; (2) we try to convert some important indices that are very difficult for quantifying into semi-quantified indices; and (3) the result is satisfied by using entropy technique to revise the coefficient.