湖南省耕地动态变化及驱动力研究

利用湖南省各地、市近50年长序列耕地统计数据,近10多年土地利用调查数据及相关社会经济资料，从湖南省土地利用结构变化、耕地的数量变化和空间变化等方面，宏观分析了湖南省耕地时空动态变化趋势和规律。应用相关分析和主成分分析相结合，定量地诊断出耕地变化的驱动因子，揭示耕地变化的驱动机制。结果表明：人口系统压力、经济发展动态和农业科技进步是影响湖南省耕地动态变化的三类主要动因。在此基础上，运用多元回归分析构建耕地变化回归模型，预测出2010年和2025年的耕地数量，并探讨未来耕地变化趋势及达到预测指标和实施区域耕地总量动态平衡的可行性，研究结果应用GIS进行了空间表达。研究内容和分析结论对湖南省农业可持续发展具有重要意义。

TREND AND DRIVING FORCE OF CULTIVATED LAND USE CHANGE IN HUNAN PROVINCE

According to the statistical and survey data at provincial and county levels, the trend of cultivated land change,the spatial difference, and the driving forces of cultivated land change in Hunan province during the last 50 years are discussed in this paper. The total area of arable land and per capital availability are reducing;for example, the total cultivated land reached its top in 1957,then declined; per capital cultivated land decreased nearly in a straight line year after year, and changed from 0.114 hm~2 to 0.049 hm~2. The trend of decrease will continue with the development of economy and increase of population. Based on the GIS spatial analysis the gravity center and moed 10.198 km to the north,and the change have relatively regional difference. As a result of the principal component analysis and correlation analysis,the eight drivingforce variables affecting arable land changes were analyzed which could be classified into three types:pressure of population system, the dynamic development of economy and progress of science and thchnology in agriculture. By using regressive equation, along with population growth and economic development, the prediction of cultivated land in Hunan province is done for 2010 and 2025. The analytical results and conclusion of this paper will provide scientific basic for sustainable agriculture development in Hunan Province.