补贴期后农户退耕还林的态度研究——以重庆万州为例

如何在项目结束停止补贴后长期巩固退耕还林成果，是政府和全社会共同关注的焦点。基于重庆万州退耕农户的微观调查数据，采用Ordered probit方法首次就补贴期后的农户退耕还林态度进行实证分析。数据显示，有相当大一部分农户在补贴结束不会再继续为退耕还林做出努力，项目的可持续性令人担忧；对补贴期后农户退耕还林态度的影响因素分析发现，男性、文化程度较高、非党员和非农就业的户主在补贴期后保持退耕还林的积极性较低；劳动力较多、年人均收入较低、退耕面积较大和还生态林的农户保持退耕还林的积极性较低。结论建议在现有的直接经济补偿结束后，尽快建立与生态服务提供紧密相连的生态补偿机制，并通过多种非货币性补偿方式保障退耕农户的利益。最后根据研究结果给出了巩固退耕还林成果的相关措施

STUDY ON FARMERS ATTITUDES TOWARD THE GRAIN FOR GREEN AFTER THE ENDING OF GOVERNMENTAL SUBSITY A CASE OF WANZHOU DISTRICT IN CHONGQING

How to consolidate achievements of the Grain for Green Program after its governmental subsidy scheme is the focus of government and the whole society. Based on the household survey data from Wanzhou District in Chongqing, this paper applies the ordered probit method to empirically analyze the farmers attitudes toward Grain for Green Program without subsidy. Data shows that a considerable number of the sampled farmers will not continue to pay efforts for maintaining the reforested lands without subsidy, and sustainability of the Program is worrying. Analysis on the factors influencing farmers attitudes to maintaining the Programs achievements indicates that households whose heads are male, non communists, with few education and off farm employment will have negative attitudes, and households with more labors, lower annual per capital income, more reforested area and ecological forests will also have negative attitudes. Results suggest that it should establish ecological compensation mechanism closely related to the provision of the Program ecological services as soon as possible during the late stage of the present direct economic subsidy and use multiple non monetary compensation methods to safeguard farmers economic interests. Based on the research results, this paper also gives several concrete measures to consolidate the Program achievements