江西省县域农业碳排放的时空动态及影响因素分析

通过构建江西省农业碳排放测算体系，采用碳转化系数法对江西省县域农业碳排放进行了估算，并分析了2000~2010年江西省农业碳排放的时空动态及其影响因素。结果表明：（1）江西省农业碳排放总量从2000年的23085万t增长到2010年的29051万t，不同年份农业碳排放均主要源于化肥施用与农业机械使用；（2）全省农业碳排放量的空间分布呈现较为明显的集聚特征，主要年份高碳排放区均集中于鄱阳湖周边地区；碳排放强度多为Ⅱ级水平，空间分布上与碳排放量相比更为均衡；（3）江西省县域间农业碳排放的相对差异与绝对差异整体上均呈明显扩大的趋势；（4）生产效率、结构、劳动力等因素对农业碳排放有抑制作用，农业经济发展则促进碳排放量增加，农业碳排放还受社会、政策等影响

SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL VARIATIONS OF COUNTY BASED #br# AGRICULTURAL CARBON EMISSIONS AND ASSOCIATED #br# EFFECT FACTORS IN JIANGXI PROVINCE

Consumption of fertilizers，pesticides，energy，as well as soil plowing in agricultural production led to substantial agricultural carbon emissions，which approximately accounted for 17% of the total greenhouse gases emissions in China Subsequently，agricultural carbon emissions played an important role in global climate change，and agricultural carbon mitigation was necessary for the government s coping with climate change So far，researches on agricultural carbon emissions concentrated on province scale，few data were available for county scale In this study，agricultural carbon emission related data of 80 counties were firstly collected from Jiangxi statistical yearbook，and then county based agricultural carbon emission was assessed using coefficient of carbon conversion The objective of this study was to clarify spatial and temporal variations of county based agricultural carbon emissions and associated effect factors in Jiangxi Province The results showed that agricultural carbon emissions remained low in Jiangxi Province From 2000 to 2010，its agricultural emissions increased from 23085×104 t to 29051×104 t All the other years witnessed a steady increase except for 2003 The two main sources of agricultural carbon emissions were the use of chemical fertilizer and the application of agricultural machine accounting for 4149%-4436% and 3097%-4032% respectively Agricultural carbon emissions had a significant characteristic of spatial concentrations in Jiangxi Province，because all high emissions zone concentrated around the Poyang Lake in the main years Taking 2010 as an example，the top five counties were Yugan，Nanchang，Poyang，Fengcheng and Gaoan due to flat topography and wide stretch of farmland Most of the carbon emission intensity was the secondary level The distribution of its high values was relatively discrete and it was also more balanced than carbon emissions in overall spatial distribution The absolute and relative differences of agricultural carbon emissions both had a trend of gradually enlarging with volatility among counties in Jiangxi Province，while the differences of its intensity had a more apparent increasing trend Production efficiency，agricultural structure and labor force had a inhibitory action on agricultural carbon emissions，labor force>production efficiency>agricultural structure，while the development of agriculture had a promotive effect，〖JP2〗with cumulative contributes up to 994% （2294×104 t）.〖JP〗 In addition，the factors of society，policy，etc also played a role in agricultural carbon emission Finally，we summarized the main problems during the development of low carbon agriculture in Jiangxi and gave some suggestions