基于二元水循环理论的水资源承载力质量能综合评价

水资源承载力是影响社会经济可持续发展的一个重要因素，水资源承载力的合理评定对于水资源的可持续利用及社会经济的发展规划具有重要指导意义。在“二元水循环”理论的基础上，提出了承载单元的概念，认为水资源是通过承载单元来实现对社会经济和自然环境的承载能力的。承载单元具有系统响应的特点，水资源在承载单元内将经过社会的外体循环及自然的内体循环，之后其水质、水量、水能3个方面的状态都会发生改变，其承载能力也会相应地发生改变。因此，以承载单元为研究对象，建立了质量能构架下水资源承载力的评价指标体系，并对水资源承载力进行了综合评价。最后以昆明市水资源承载力的分析评价为例，说明了该方法的实际应用

ASSESSMENT ON THE QUALITY,QUANTITY AND POWER POTENTIAL OF WATER RESOURCES CARRYING CAPACITY BASED ON DUALISTIC WATER CYCLE MODEL

Water resources are the indispensable factors to the development of human society and natural environment.The maximum capacity of water resources system to support that development is called Water Resources Carrying Capacity (WRCC).A reasonable evaluation of WRCC has a guiding significance to the sustainable exploitation of water resources and the development planning of society and economy.There are many ways to assess the WRCC of a basin or district.They are generally based on the traditional hydrological cycle consisting of evaporation,transportation,precipitation,and transpiration.Dualistic water cycle model,as a new coming view of hydrologic cycle,divides however the cycle into natural and social parts.The natural part refers to the traditional hydrological cycle,while the social part includes the processes of water taking,water use,and drainage.Therefore,the interaction between human society and water resources system is embodied in one system,in which the interference between them can be studied in a more effectively way.Based on the theory of “dualistic water cycle model”,a concept of “carrying unit” is put forward.Carrying unit refers to a segment of a river,where water can be taken to supply to a district and receive the drainage from that district.With the concept of carrying unit,WRCC would be realized through a carrying unit to support the development of society and natural environment.The carrying unit has a property of system response,meaning that water resources will change in quality,quantity,and power potential after it flows through a carrying unit and experiences the external cycle of society and the internal cycle of nature system,and then its carrying capacity will change accordingly.Carrying unit,therefore,reflects the relationship between upstream and downstream of a river,and the coupling among human society,water resources system,and natural environment.Afterwards,a new approach to assess WRCC is provided based on carrying unit,and a new index system including water quality,quantity and power potential is developed,too.In the end,a case study on Kunming City is provided to verify the effectiveness of this method