江苏省交通运输业能源消费碳排放及脱钩效应

通过自上而下的计算方法，测算了江苏省1995～2010年交通运输行业能源消费碳排放量和人均碳排放量，并结合行业自身发展特点，扩展了Kaya恒等式，运用LMDI分解法进行分解分析。同时，在上述基础上采用Tapio模型对江苏省交通碳排放与交通运输业经济发展的脱钩关系进行了探讨。研究发现:(1)江苏省交通碳排放量与人均碳排量均呈明显上升趋势，其中石油制品类能源消费碳排放表现突出;(2)正向驱动交通碳排放量增加的因素为经济产出、人口规模和产业结构，负向驱动因素为交通能源结构和交通能源强度。其中，拉动碳排放量增长的决定性因素是经济产出规模的扩大，而促使碳排放减少的主要因素是交通能源强度的降低，相对于正向驱动因素，负向驱动因素抑制交通碳排放增加作用有限;(3)交通碳排放量变化与运输业经济发展之间的脱钩状态以扩张负连接、扩张负脱钩和弱脱钩为主，脱钩关系总体呈先恶化后改善的趋势，但要完全实现两者的绝对脱钩，依然任重道远

CARBON EMISSIONS OF TRANSPORTATION ENERGY CONSUMPTION AND ITS DECOUPLING ANALYSIS IN JIANGSU PROVINCE

Greenhouse gas emission has been one of the most important environmental issues in the world. After the Kyoto Protocol entered into force in 2005, every Annex I country was required to submit an annual report of inventories of GHG emissions. The GHG emission inventories serve not only as a check of the current status of emission levels but also as a mechanism to monitor progresses toward agreed national emission reduction targets. Reliable emission inventory will provide policymakers with critical information to develop smart strategies and policies for climate change and enable the general public to better understand the sources and trends of GHG emissions. In 2008, the transport sector accounted for 23% of the world greenhouse gas emissions from energy, but it represented the highest growth in emissions of all sectors. Increasingly serious global warming caused by the greenhouse effect has become an important constraint of the global sustainable economic and social development, which caused worldwide attention. Atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations continue to increase, mostly from the burning of fossil fuels, making the growing greenhouse effect leading to global warming. Total oil consumption of transport sector accounted for 50% of the current global oil consumption, and 25% of the total CO2 emissions. The transport sector depended too much on oil and energy, and was the major important contribution rate of greenhouse gas emissions. Exploring the impact of transportation energy consumption and related carbon emission factors and changes in the contribution rate, for the realization of low carbon transport has great significance. By top down calculation method, transport sector carbon emissions and per capita carbon emission from 1995 to 2010 in Jiangsu Province were calculated and analysed using LMDI decomposition method, combined with the industry own development characteristics and extended Kaya identity. Meanwhile, decoupling relationships between carbon emissions and economic development in Jiangsu Province were analysed using Tapio model . The Results showed as follows. (1) Transport emissions and per capita carbon emission of Jiangsu Province showed a clear upward trend, in which carbon emissions of petroleum products energy consumption performed noticeably. (2) The forward driving factors of transport emissions to increase were economic output, population size and industrial structure, and the negative driving factors were the structure and intensity of transportation energy. Among them, the decisive factor of stimulating the growth of carbon emissions was the expansion of economic output, while the major factor of reducing carbon emissions was reduced transportation energy intensity, and the inhibiting effect on the increase of transport emissions of negative factors was limited compared to forward driving factors. (3) The expansion negative connection, the expansion negative decoupling and weak decoupling were the main decoupling states between transport emission change and transportation industry economic development, and the decoupling relationships tended to be deteriorative first, then ameliorative, but it would go a long way toward fully realizing absolute decoupling