鄱阳湖生态经济区交通格局演变及区域效应研究

应用ArcGIS空间分析和可达性评价模型，结合SPSS、Matlab等软件，以鄱阳湖生态经济区为研究区域，选取1998年、2008年及2020规划年为时间断面，用栅格法测算交通可达性，分析可达性格局空间演变特征。根据城市质量和时间距离，构建经济联系评价模型，回归分析预测2020年城市质量。对区域内经济总量空间集聚进行分析，并根据三个时间段的最大经济联系格局演变，分析城市间经济辐射范围和城市隶属关系变化。结果发现：区域内可达性改善明显，城市间可达性差距缩小，到2020年全区可基本实现一日交流；区域内经济总量集聚明显，且处于极化状态；由于鄱阳湖湖体的阻隔，区域内形成以南昌、九江、景德镇三大经济中心地，其他为隶属城市的经济联系格局；建议发展南昌至贵溪尤其是东乡至鹰潭段的交通，使鹰潭成为区内第四个经济中心地，实现全区均衡发展

EVOLUTION OF TRANSPORT ACCESSIBILITY AND THE REGIONAL EFFECTS OF POYANG LAKE ECO ECOLOGICAL ZONE

Transportation is one of basic functions of city. It can provide a positive effect to city development, economy growth and society economy. Accessibility, as a factor in traffic net technology performance evaluation system, is an important reason in region role reshaping and newly organizing. As a result, the evolution of accessibility reflects region spatial structure, and we can identify the problem of regional spatial optimization through it. Theoretically, a good regional pattern means better developing mode, even can make region sustainable development come true. With the help of spatial analysis methods in ArcGIS and model of accessibility evaluation, combined with SPSS and Matlab, this paper selected 1998, 2008 and the planning year of 2020 as time section, used the raster method estimating the transport accessibility in Poyang Lake Eco ecological Zone to analyze evolution characteristics of accessibility pattern, to build economic link evaluation model according to city quality and time distance, and to predict the city quality in 2020 by regression analysis. We calculated the agglomeration index of economic link and analyzed the economic radiation range between cities and the change of subjection relationship through the evolving of maximum economic link pattern in three time periods. The results showed that the accessibility improved significantly, and the gap between cities was narrowing. In 2020, one day exchange will come true. The concentration of economy gross is obvious, and it begins polarizing. As the barrier affection of Poyang Lake, the region becomes an economy pattern which has three economy centers such as Nanchang, Jiujiang and Jingdezhen, and the other cities in this region are subordinate to these three centers. It suggests that the traffic infrastructure from Nanchang to Guixi, especially the road from Dongxiang to Yingtan should be improved, to promote the city of Yingtan as the fourth economy center, and to achieve balanced development in Poyang Lake Eco ecological Zone.