中国高新技术产业发展水平格局演变及影响因素分析

运用AHP 熵权法、马尔科夫链和ESDA方法，在GIS技术支持下，基于中国高新技术产业31个空间单元2000、2005和2010年3个时间断面的数据，分析了高新技术产业发展水平的时空格局演变及其影响因素。研究结果表明：(1)高新技术产业发展水平的时序演变中各省区高新技术产业的发展差距在2000~2005与2005~2010年两时期中均不断扩大，尤以前一时期更甚，数据说明高水平的省份发展速度快于低水平省份，高水平省份才是我国高技术产业发展的主动力。省区间高新技术产业发展水平虽然整体上均在不断发展，但是区域间的差异不断扩大，出现强者愈强，弱者恒弱的“马太效应”；(2)发展水平指数处于高水平、较高水平省区集中在东部沿海地区，低水平省区向中西部除陕西以外的省区集聚的趋势增强，地域范围不断扩大，空间相关性较强，存在“俱乐部趋同”现象；(3)基础、经济、政策等传统因子在初期对高新技术产业发展的促进作用明显，随着产业逐步向更高层次发展，及政策环境的完善，传统因素的影响逐渐扁平化，而集聚、人力资本等新兴因素对高新技术产业的影响不断加强，区位因素的作用一直很明显，与高新技术产业的发展特征相吻合

SPATIAL EVOLUTION OF HIGH TECH INDUSTRY DEVELOPMENT LEVEL IN CHINA AND ANALYSIS OF THE INFLUENCING FACTORS

High tech industry represents a countrys scientific and technological strength and promotes the economic development, which has brought to the attention of the countries and regions. This paper introduces a measure of the development level of high tech industry and analyzes the changes of provincial high tech industry development level between 2000 and 2010. The results show as follows. (1)The gap of development level on temporal evolution analysis of Chinese high tech industry continuously extends during two periods of 2000-2005 and 2005-2010. Data shows that the provinces staying in a high level have the more rapid development speed than that in low level, and provinces which keep in the high level are the real driving force of development of high tech industry in China. Although the overall level of provincial high tech industrial development is constantly moving forward, the differences between regions continue to expand and the phenomenon of the strong being stronger and the weak being weaker namely “Matthew Effect” gradually emerges. (2)The provinces development index of which stay at the higher level and a high level mainly concentrate in the eastern coastal province. Low level provinces except the Shaanxi are increasing, of which the agglomeration trends to the central and western regions. The geographical scope is expanding, it has strong spatial correlation and exists “club convergence” phenomenon. (3)Basic factors, economic factors, policy factors and other traditional factors on the early period of high tech industry development play the apparent role in promoting the development level. With the industrial development to a higher level and the gradual improvement of the policy environment, the effect of traditional factors is gradually flattening. However, the influence of gathering, human capital and other new emerging factors on high tech industries continue to strengthen and the role of location factors has been evident, which coincides the development characteristics of high tech industry.